Grading the Maple Leafs & Blue Jackets’ Trade Involving Marchenko & Knies

The first regular-season games haven’t even taken place yet, and we already have our first whopper of a trade. Earlier today, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Columbus Blue Jackets linked up on a deal involving Kirill Marchenko and Matthew Knies. Here are the full details:

Maple Leafs receive:

• Kirill Marchenko; also signed 6-year, $12.5 million AAV extension
• Miles Wood
• Elvis Merzlikins (LTIR)

Blue Jackets receive:

• Matthew Knies
• Steven Lorentz
• Emil Andrae
• Conditional 2027 second-round pick

It wasn’t a secret that Marchenko wanted out of Columbus, and the Maple Leafs ultimately won the sweepstakes. They’re getting an upgrade over Knies, but the Blue Jackets also did well to extract the most value they could get for a player that everyone knew wanted out.

Maple Leafs Add Dynamism to Top 6

Marchenko has been one of the best wingers in the NHL over the last two seasons, averaging 31 goals and 75 points per 82 games. He’s a high-end scorer, but he’s not a one-trick pony. He has multiple weapons in his arsenal.

Marchenko is one of the NHL’s best skaters. He ranked in the 99th percentile in speed bursts between 18-20 mph and 20-22 mph last season. He can absolutely fly and create off the rush, but he’s also not afraid to get in on the forecheck. He’s 6-foot-3 and 201 pounds, and uses his frame to his advantage.

In addition to his physical traits, Marchenko is one of the NHL’s best shooters. The Maple Leafs have one of the league’s best snipers in Auston Matthews (when healthy), but Marchenko gives them another shooting threat. He should fit in quite well in their top six.

Some fans may look at Marchenko and Knies’ counting stats and think this isn’t that much of an upgrade. I thought that at first, too, but it’s clear Marchenko is an upgrade when you dig deeper. His five-on-five impacts are much better than Knies’, and he’ll bring more of a dynamic play-driving element to the Maple Leafs’ top six.

Marchenko is not all the Maple Leafs received, but Miles Wood and Elvis Merzlikins are throw-ins more than anything else. Wood can add some goals to the bottom six, and he plays with some pace, but he’s not the player he used to be.

Meanwhile, Merzlikins is out indefinitely after undergoing shoulder surgery this offseason. I don’t see him factoring into the Maple Leafs’ plans, but we’ll see as 2026-27 progresses. This seems to be a move to make the salary cap work.

Overall, Marchenko looks like a great pickup for the Maple Leafs. His contract extension, which kicks in next summer, isn’t as valuable as Knies’ current contract. But he’s worth the price. He elevates the team’s floor and ceiling for 2026-27.

Maple Leafs Grade: A-

Blue Jackets Fare Well

Even though everyone knew Marchenko wanted a change of scenery, getting Knies in return is about as good as the Blue Jackets could have done. While he doesn’t look like a player who can drive his own line, he’s a power forward who can complement a top six. His improvement as a playmaker last season also bodes well:

The biggest concern for the Blue Jackets is whether they can unlock Knies as the Maple Leafs did. They don’t have the high-end skill the Maple Leafs have in their top six, and his numbers away from Matthews have cratered over the last two seasons.

Knies and Matthews totaled an expected goals share (xG%) of 51.75 percent as linemates since the start of the 2024-25 season. But that number dropped to 43.01 percent when Knies wasn’t paired with Matthews. Unless Adam Fantilli levels up, I’d be a bit concerned about what Knies looks like, since the Blue Jackets don’t have the play-drivers the Maple Leafs do.

I also like the depth additions for the Blue Jackets. Emil Andrae may be small in stature, but he’s done well in sheltered depth minutes. He’ll add some puck-moving ability on the Blue Jackets’ back end. Steven Lorentz is a solid defensive fourth-line forward, too.

Even though Knies has question marks, I doubt he flames out. He should fit in with how they want to play. This is a solid return for the Blue Jackets.

Blue Jackets Grade: B+

Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick