What We Know About the Knies-Marchenko Trade Talk: Who Wins The Deal?

** Update: The trade is done. The details are as follows:

Trade Details

To Toronto:
RW Kirill Marchenko
G Elvis Merzlikins
F Miles Wood

To Columbus:
LW Matthew Knies
F Steven Lorentz
RD Emil Andrae
2nd round pick

Original Post:

The rumor mill is working in overdrive on Monday afternoon as reports have popped up from several trusted insiders that Matthew Knies is being traded by the Toronto Maple Leafs to the Columbus Blue Jackets for Kirill Marchenko. Other pieces are involved, and it’s a blockbuster, even though it has yet to be made official.

Here’s What We Know So Far

Elliotte Friedman broke the story, reporting that the Blue Jackets and Maple Leafs were talking trade. It was later learned that the deal had several moving parts, including an extension for Marchenko, salary cap implications and more. It was also noted that Knies was part of the package going back to Columbus.

Pierre LeBrun added, “The proposed Leafs-Blue Jackets trade involves multiple pieces, including Knies and Marchenko, and it’s not a done deal yet. Both teams still working through things. Plus Leafs negotiating with Marchenko’s agent Dan Milstein.”

Emily Kaplan of ESPN reported, “Also, sounds like the trade will only go through with Marchenko agreeing to an extension in Toronto — which is being worked on now.”

Friedman later updated his own post, noting that Columbus gave Toronto permission to speak to Marchenko about an extension, but he wasn’t sure how that final deal might look. “League-wide opening-night cap-compliant roster deadline is 5 pm ET.” In other words, this all has to makes sense on the salary cap so the Leafs can submit an opening night roster. Friedman also notes, “I believe Toronto is taking Elvis Merzlikins if this goes through.”

Who Is Going to Win This Trade?

Eric Engels asked a question that everyone will be thinking if this goes through: who wins this trade?

He writes:

“Ok… Matthew Knies is a 23-year-old with 58- and 66-point seasons under his belt. Will make $7.75M on cap for next five seasons. Guy is 6-foot-3, 231lbs, built for playoff hockey. I don’t think we can definitively say that about Marchenko, but he will almost certainly score at a higher clip next to Matthews and potentially prove he is a playoff guy. Still, he’s 26, he’s topped out at 74 pts and, after this year at $3.85M, he’s getting mega bucks. So, take the other pieces out, who wins this deal?

Jeff Veilette responded, writing, “Standing at a massive 6’3 with 124 points in his last two seasons, Matthew Knies is built for the dance. It remains to be seen whether Kirill Marchenko, who stands at a mere 6’3 with only 139 points in his last two seasons, can fill his Herculean footsteps.”

Author’s Take: This Is A Big One…

Indications are that this is a deal that has been discussed before by these two teams, potentially dating back to the NHL Draft. It feels like it’s coming out of left field, but it might not be. It is known that Knies trade talks have taken place, and the Blue Jackets have been actively fielding calls about Marchenko.

All that said, I don’t love this trade from a Maple Leafs’ perspective, but I’ll reserve the right to change my opinion after the details of the Marchenko extension are announced. Knies is a big part of what the Leafs are trying to build and his contract was very friendly, given the rising salary cap. Marchenko is likely to score more goals, but the Leafs are about to pay a premium given the changing financial landscape.

As for the Merzlikin aspect of this trade, the goaltender is recovering from significant shoulder surgery. This looks like a case of Columbus getting salary relief, while Toronto adds another LTIR candidate to create cap flexibility for the trade. Whether he actually plays this season is anyone’s guess.

If the Blue Jackets pick up Knies, that’s a solid return for a player who said everything but that he was officially leaving Columbus when his contract expired.