by Eldon MacDonald
As I said when the mid-term rankings came out, “If you are like me, you are always slightly annoyed when NHL Central Scouting puts one four separate rankings for one draft. Thus, each year I take on the cumbersome task of combining the lists”.
It takes about an hour to combine the lists, but two days to add the stats and other pertinent information.
For the two rounds I took TSN’s Bob MacKenzie’s mid-term draft rankings and inserted the player from the European or Goalie rankings where Bob MacKenzie’s ranking suggested.
For the remaining rounds, I simply inserted 5 European skaters and 2-3 goalies per round based on the average for the 2011 and 2012 drafts.
Open to Debate
While it is presumptuous to say that another’s rankings is wrong (NHL or otherwise), it is fair game to state why you might disagree. So here are my comments on the NHL’s rankings which I will limit to the first two rounds
Potential 1st Rounders NHL CS has Omitted from the Top 30
1. Nikita Zadorov, London Knights, OHL – #31 on the combined ranking: Nikita’s game has not progressed since January – could be a minor injury, could be fatigue with the long schedule – so there is some cause for concern that he is over-ranked on most lists including mine. However, watching him last Friday night (26-Apr-13), his big hits, his nice passing, his big-man reach, I find it hard to believe that there is not, at least, one NHL team that will grab this large, shutdown defenseman type in the 1st round, 8-15 range.
2. Samuel Morin, Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL – #32 on the combined ranking: I will not be too harsh on Central Scouting since I also had Sammy at 32 when I released my April rankings. At that time, I said I would wait to see how Sammy did at the U18’s before pushing him to the first round. Well, guess what, Sammy passed with flying colours – ranking 7th overall in plus minus going into the gold medal game. A 6’7 defenseman, who can skate, fight, pass and even play the power play and has a mean streak is going to go in the 1st, you have to think. A player with similar characteristics, Jarred Tinordi, went No 22 – expect Morin to do the same or better.
3. Ian McCoshen, Waterloo Black Hawks, USHL – #33 on the combined ranking: On this ranking, I am more the outlier than the NHL. However, Ian’s size (6’3, 205), his defensive prowess, his ability on the power play makes me have this guy as first round. He is likely to go in the 20 to 35 range.
4Adam Erne, Quebec Remparts, QMJHL – #35 on the combined ranking: Yes, he did get called out by his teammates after Christmas. This means he will have some “splaining” to do at the Combine. However, I do not believe it will cause him to fall out of the 1st with very many teams – just too much NHL size (6’1, 210), too much NHL speed, too much NHL take charge. He just looks like he would fit on your top six forwards. My guess is he will go in the 10 to 23 range.
5. Josh Morrissey, Prince Albert Raiders, WHL – #36 on the combined ranking: He leads the U18 in plus minus going into the U18 gold medal game at +11 in just six games. His performance at the U18’s reminds you so much of Duncan Keith at his best that there is no way this young man is not going to go very high in this draft – 8 to 18 range.
Players NHL CS has in the Top 30 Who Could Drop to 2nd Round
1. Zack Nastasiuk, Owen Sound Attack, OHL – #19 on the combined ranking: Zack is a guy I grew to like over the year. He is that energy type, third line checker that every team needs. However, he is not Sidney Crosby; in fact, his hands are more Colby Armstrong-like. As much as I like this guy, I have a lot of trouble seeing him picked above Horvat, Fucale, Domi, Lazar, Zadorov, Morin, Erne, Bigras, Bowey and many others. I would put him in the 40 to 60 category but an individual team could go higher; we shall have to wait till June to find out for sure.
2. William Carrier, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles, QMJHL – #25 on the combined ranking: William started out the season strong, unlike his team, but hit a rough patch (for reasons I am not aware of) and then went out for the season with a major injury before Christmas. I actually like the NHL’s ranking of him because he was definitely in this range before he hit the rough patch. However, there is a good chance he could fall to the 2nd round like Brandon Saad did in the 2011 draft. I would put William in the 25-45 range.
3. Jimmy Lodge, Saginaw Spirit, OHL – #30 on the combined ranking: Yes, I had to apologize to Jimmy once before for under rating him. And yes, I would be happy to apologize to him again if he proves me wrong again. And yes, Jimmy could go as high as 30. However, the competition around 30 is pretty fierce, Compher, Hartman, Hagg, Klimchuck, Bigras, Theodore, Bowey. My best guess is the 33 to 48 range; prove me wrong again, Jimmy.
Player NHL CS is Really Underestimating
1. Max Domi, London Knights, OHL – #27 on the combined ranking: Yes, I watched Friday night’s game (26-Apr-13) when London eliminated Plymouth in overtime. And yes, I watched one of the best performances of the season when Max Domi put up five points including the overtime winner. While Nathan MacKinnon may have the best passing gear, Max Domi has the first gear category all to himself. His explosiveness and determination is just too impressive not to warrant going very high in the draft, 9 to 20 range.
Peruse the combined rankings below and comment on some of your projected outliers.
2013 NHL Draft Rankings War Room: Combining Central Scouting’s Final Rankings
- Rank = Prospect ranking (after combining NHL CS rankings)
- NAS = North American Skater
- NAG = North American Goalie
- EUS = European Skater
- EUG = European Goalie
- Pos = Position
- Nat = Nationality
- S = Shoots (Left or Right)
- The table display approximately 30 of the prospects at a time; simply scroll down to view the other prospects.
- Only a portion of the table displays by default; you can scroll over to see the rest of the player demographics and stats or select “View full-size workbook” option, which is the icon in the bottom right hand corner, to view the full table.
Chris is THW’s senior draft/prospect analyst and a Managing Editor. Watch for “The Next Ones” Prospect Profile series, exclusive rankings, mock drafts, as well as the annual THW NHL Entry Draft Guide. Follow @ChrisRalphYQ on Twitter as he infiltrates, dissects and analyzes all happenings of hockey prospects and the NHL entry draft. Email: cralph[at]thehockeywriters[dot]com