2020 NHL Draft: 10 Fallers from Fisher’s Top 300 for March


This month’s fallers feature a handful of familiar names — frequent fallers per se — while a few new names were also trending down for me in March.

RELATED: 10 Risers from Fisher’s Top 300 for March

1) William Wallinder (LD, Sweden, MODO J20)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 22

MARCH RANKING: 35

VARIATION: -13

ANALYSIS: Wallinder wasn’t at his best during the Five Nations Tournament in February, which can be blamed for this tumble out of my first round. He still has first-round talent — of that, there is no doubt — but Wallinder has been losing momentum in recent months and slipping in my rankings as a result. He topped out at No. 17 for me but is now back on the bubble for my first round. For my mocks to come, Wallinder still seems like a fairly good bet for the top 31 with his size, skating and offensive upside, but I’m not as high on him as I once was. I felt like the under-18 worlds would have been an important bounce-back tournament for Wallinder — to solidify himself as a first-rounder — but he won’t get that chance due to the coronavirus cancellation of that showcase.

https://twitter.com/JokkeNevalainen/status/1231565256234807297

2) Antonio Stranges (LW/LC, USA, London OHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 48

MARCH RANKING: 59

VARIATION: -11

ANALYSIS: Stranges has been a regular on this list — one of those frequent fallers — and it is no longer a certainty than he’ll be selected in the top two rounds. He has top-50 tools — arguably top-20 talent — but the toolbox is suspect and the red flags will scare teams off. The flaws in Stranges’ game have been highlighted here in months past, but his production also fell well short of expectations for a player of his skill level. Disappointing is the word that best sums up Stranges’ draft year.

Antonio Stranges, London Knights, OHL
Antonio Stranges of the London Knights. (Terry Wilson/OHL Images)

3) Ty Smilanic (LW/LC, USA, NTDP U18)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 49

MARCH RANKING: 60

VARIATION: -11

ANALYSIS: Smilanic works harder than Stranges, generally speaking, but his efforts didn’t translate to as much offence as anticipated for his draft year. They have that in common. Smilanic passes the eye test on most nights, but his statistical totals aren’t that impressive — and, frankly, leave a lot to be desired. This year’s NTDP team paled in comparison to last year’s powerhouse, but Smilanic remains one of the top prospects from that roster. Some teams will still be high on Smilanic despite his relatively low numbers, but I couldn’t justify a top-50 ranking at this point.

Ty Smilanic USNTDP
Ty Smilanic of the U.S. National Team Development Program. (Credit: Rena Laverty)

4) Shakir Mukhamadullin (LD, Russia, Tolpar Ufa MHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 50

MARCH RANKING: 63

VARIATION: -13

ANALYSIS: Mukhamadullin is such a mixed bag. There is so much to like about him, yet so much to be concerned with. From one game to the next, one viewing to the next, it can be like watching two totally different players. He is great on his good days and awful on his bad days. Fortunately for him, the good days still outnumber the bad by a fair margin. But consistency is key for defencemen and Mukhamadullin isn’t a model of that in the present. He’ll require a fair bit of patience in his development path, so it’ll take the right team to get Mukhamadullin to the NHL. If he reaches his potential, Mukhamadullin will be a beauty — top four with power-play capabilities — but the bust possibility is also very real and thus my reluctance to lock him in as a second-round prospect. Mukhamadullin reminds me a bit of Boris Mironov with his booming shot and crushing checks — displaying enough raw talent to be taken in the top 50 or perhaps even reached for in the top 31 — but let this serve as a buyer beware.

5) Alexander Nikishin (LD, Russia, Spartak Moskva KHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 51

MARCH RANKING: 81

VARIATION: -30

ANALYSIS: Nikishin is more consistent but with much less flair than Mukhamadullin. Nikishin plays a more controlled game as a physical presence without taking himself out of position like Mukhamadullin tends to do in going out of his way to throw the big hits. That is one of the discrepancies between these two Russian rearguards, but Nikishin is more of a stay-at-home type and lacks the offensive abilities of Mukhamadullin — thus the discrepancy in my rankings. Nikishin may be lower but seems to be the safer pick. That safe style hinders Nikishin to some degree in my rankings but might benefit him in the actual draft as well as my mocks.

6) Daniel Ljungman (LC, Sweden, Linkoping J20)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 60

MARCH RANKING: 70

VARIATION: -10

ANALYSIS: Ljungman was so good at the Hlinka — one of the breakout stars at that tournament — but didn’t go on to dominate Sweden’s junior league. He finished eighth in team scoring for Linkoping, only netting 10 goals over 40 games, which felt like a letdown after setting the bar so high coming out of the Hlinka. NHL scouts won’t forget that standout performance but will wonder why Ljungman couldn’t replicate that production against his peers. Ljungman could be a lesson in not putting too much stock in a short tournament and small sample size, but he flashed a very high ceiling on that stage and shouldn’t fall too far in the big picture.

7) Emil Heineman (LW, Sweden, Leksands J20)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 61

MARCH RANKING: 71

VARIATION: -10

ANALYSIS: Heineman was way more productive than Ljungman in the junior loop — netting 26 goals in just 29 games to lead that league — but hasn’t been getting much hype among draft enthusiasts. Some see Heineman as an opportunistic scorer lacking high-end offensive tools, but there is no disputing his ability to light the lamp and capitalize on his chances. I am torn on Heineman since he looked legit in my limited viewings — certainly worthy of a second-round selection — but I also saw shades of Teemu Pulkkinen, who fell to the fourth round in 2010 and didn’t pan out. Heineman doesn’t skate any better than Pulkkinen, so that is somewhat concerning and caused me to pump the brakes again on Heineman. If he booms, remember I did like Heineman.

8) Dylan Peterson (RC, USA/Canada, NTDP U18)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 68

MARCH RANKING: 80

VARIATION: -12

ANALYSIS: Peterson is big and toolsy but failed to produce in his draft year. It’s the same story as his previously listed teammate Smilanic. They are different players but endured similar struggles to find the back of the net. Peterson is more meat and potatoes to Smilanic’s flash and dash but both underachieved and became frequent fallers in my rankings. If the offence clicks for Peterson in the years to come, he could be a steal outside the top 50, but that is looking like a big if in the present. Peterson is a no-brainer in the third round, but I would hesitate on reaching for him in the second round. I’ll have to think long and hard on that decision for my mocks.

Dylan Peterson USNTDP
Dylan Peterson of the U.S. National Team Development Program. (Credit: Rena Laverty)

9) Ryan Francis (RW, Canada, Cape Breton QMJHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 74

MARCH RANKING: 107

VARIATION: -33

ANALYSIS: Francis might have fallen a bit too far in hindsight — he could have stayed 10 spots higher, taking Evan Vierling (No. 108) up with him into the high-90s — but Francis still would have been a fourth-rounder for me. He is in that range right around No. 100. I like Francis and he had no problem producing in his draft year, but he is undersized and not as dynamic as his stat-line suggests. Francis will need to get a bit quicker to continue racking up points as a pro — and to make the NHL in any role — but I wouldn’t bet against him going forward. Francis has a good motor and it will take him places because he is a driven kid.

Cape Breton Eagles Ryan Francis
Ryan Francis of the Cape Breton Eagles. (Cape Breton Eagles)

10) Joel Blomqvist (G, Finland, Karpat U20)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 80

MARCH RANKING: 91

VARIATION: -11

ANALYSIS: Blomqvist didn’t fall all that far and stayed in the third round but was a bigger faller in terms of positional rankings — dropping from my second-ranked goaltender to fifth, overtaken by Drew Commesso (No. 75), overager Nico Daws (No. 89) and OHL newcomer Nick Malik (No. 90) behind the clear frontrunner in Yaroslav Askarov (No. 10). There isn’t much separation between those four netminders in the third round and the four that I have grouped in the fourth round: overagers Samuel Hlavaj (No. 115) and Amir Miftakhov (No. 116) as well as first-time eligibles Jan Bednar (No. 117) and Calle Clang (No. 118). Any of those eight — including Blomqvist — could easily be the second goaltender selected after Askarov. I revamped my goalie rankings for March with the addition of overagers for the first time, putting more emphasis on that position after a reader questioned my February rankings. Blomqvist is a bit undersized by today’s goaltending standards — so is fellow Finn Juuse Saros — but I doubt Blomqvist will fall out of the top 100 over height concerns.

https://twitter.com/JokkeNevalainen/status/1236635469959528448

Honourable Mentions

NOTE: Here are 26 more double-digit fallers from within my top four rounds — an inflated number because of nine overagers being added to that top 124, thus bumping down a bunch of first-time eligibles.

Juuso Maenpaa (LC, Finland, Jokerit U20)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 81

MARCH RANKING: 92

VARIATION: -11

Oliver Suni (RW, Finland, Oshawa OHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 82

MARCH RANKING: 93

VARIATION: -11

Ruben Rafkin (RD, Finland, Windsor OHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 83

MARCH RANKING: 94

VARIATION: -11

Jack Thompson (RD, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 85

MARCH RANKING: 109

VARIATION: -24

Lleyton Moore (LD, Canada, Oshawa OHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 86

MARCH RANKING: 110

VARIATION: -24

Ronan Seeley (LD, Canada, Everett WHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 88

MARCH RANKING: 111

VARIATION: -23

Michal Gut (LC, Czech Republic, Everett WHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 90

MARCH RANKING: 113

VARIATION: -23

Jan Bednar (G, Czech Republic, Karlovy Vary Czech)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 93

MARCH RANKING: 117

VARIATION: -24

Lukas Svejkovsky (RC/RW, USA/Czech Republic, Medicine Hat WHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 97

MARCH RANKING: 114

VARIATION: -17

Simon Kubicek (RD, Czech Republic, Seattle WHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 98

MARCH RANKING: 112

VARIATION: -14

Ryder Rolston (RW, USA, Waterloo USHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 102

MARCH RANKING: 127

VARIATION: -25

Maxim Groshev (RW, Russia, Reaktor Nizhnekamsk MHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 106

MARCH RANKING: 126

VARIATION: -20

Sergei Safin-Tregubov (LD, Russia/Portugal, Tolpar Ufa MHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 107

MARCH RANKING: 125

VARIATION: -18

Vsevolod Skotnikov (G, Russia, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva MHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 108

MARCH RANKING: 173

VARIATION: -65

Yegor Guskov (G, Russia, Loko Yaroslavl MHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 109

MARCH RANKING: 226

VARIATION: -117

Brady Burns (LC, Canada, Saint John QMJHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 112

MARCH RANKING: 140

VARIATION: -28

Patrick Guay (LW/LC, Canada, Sherbrooke QMJHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 113

MARCH RANKING: 139

VARIATION: -26

Hayden Fowler (RW, Canada, Erie OHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 114

MARCH RANKING: 138

VARIATION: -24

Matej Kaslik (LC, Slovakia, Malmo J20)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 116

MARCH RANKING: 156

VARIATION: -40

Theo Rochette (LC, Canada/Switzerland, Quebec QMJHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 117

MARCH RANKING: 141

VARIATION: -24

Simon Knak (RW, Switzerland, Portland WHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 118

MARCH RANKING: 142

VARIATION: -24

Marek Blaha (RD, Czech Republic, Sparta Praha U19)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 120

MARCH RANKING: 136

VARIATION: -16

Dylan Garand (G, Canada, Kamloops WHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 121

MARCH RANKING: 147

VARIATION: -26

Luke Prokop (RD, Canada, Calgary WHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 122

MARCH RANKING: 145

VARIATION: -23

Cross Hanas (LW, USA/Canada, Portland WHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 123

MARCH RANKING: 143

VARIATION: -20

Cole Shepard (LW/LC, Canada, Vancouver WHL)

FEBRUARY RANKING: 124

MARCH RANKING: 154

VARIATION: -30

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