3 Reasons the Canadiens Can Beat the Lightning in Game 7

At face value, the Tampa Bay Lightning hold the advantage(s) over the Montreal Canadiens in Game 7 of the two teams’ first-round series on Sunday. The Lightning just won Game 6, which gives them at least some momentum, have the benefit of playing at home, and even hold the edge in terms of their all-time Game 7 records (albeit over a much smaller sample size).

What do the Canadiens have? Still a huge chance of coming out on top based on the following three factors:

3. Canadiens Win More on the Road

It’s not just that the Canadiens own a better road (24-9-8) than home (24-15-2) record. They have also earned more points on the road than the Lightning have in Tampa (26-14-1). Having already won twice at Benchmark International Arena this series and four times there dating back to the 2024-25 regular season (4-0-2 on the road vs. Lightning overall), the Canadiens have at least proven:

• They have what it takes to consistently beat the Lightning in their own barn.
• They aren’t intimidated in the least by the dominance the Bolts have asserted over them in recent seasons past.

This is a young Canadiens team that is constantly improving and has proven itself capable of winning big games in enemy territory, including Games 1 and 5. While Game 7 is bigger still, there’s no reason to believe they won’t collectively put their best skate forward yet again. In such an instance it would simply be up to the Lightning to play better than them.

That’s easier said than done.

2. Canadiens’ Top Line Is Due

Look at it this way: The Canadiens are where they are in this series without their top line (heading into the series anyway) of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky having performed up to their capabilities, with obvious exception to the Slafkovsky in Game 1.

Between the three of them on that line, which has since been split up, they only have a single even-strength point, which came in the form of Suzuki’s secondary assist on Alexandre Texier’s Game 5 game-winning goal (on which Lane defenseman Hutson was the one who made the big play). So, it’s an accurate statement that the team’s leading scorer and the franchise’s first 100-point scorer since 1985-86 (Mats Naslund) has yet to put his stamp on this series.

While Lightning superstar Nikita Kucherov has similarly struggled, an objective assessment of the situation would reveal that the Bolts’ top players have largely performed up to expectations, based on how their respective regular seasons went, with Brayden Point’s struggles obviously having bled into the postseason. In contrast, the Canadiens have relied more on their depth for their success so far, which can be presented as a decent argument that the Habs just plain have more. How else to explain how both teams earned 106 points in the standings, without the Habs having the same benefit of a potential Hart Memorial Trophy candidate playing for them?

Lightning fans may take offense to that statement (for some reason), perhaps proceeding to point to Suzuki’s superstar-esque season as proof that the Canadiens have high-end talent themselves. Habs fans would agree. Glad that’s been settled. Now it’s the Canadiens’ biggest difference-makers’ turns to rise to the occasion, after having fired blanks for most of the series.

Maybe that’s unfair… or at least not giving proper credit where it’s due.

1. Jakub Dobes

Heading in, the goaltending match-up between Jakub Dobes and Andrei Vasilevskiy had been slated as a top factor. On paper that match-up had been the biggest disparity, with the latter having just been named a finalist for the Vezina Trophy, as arguably the favourite to capture his second (2018-19). Meanwhile, Dobes, despite having put together a great season, oftentimes in spite of the team’s wavering confidence in his abilities (or more so unwavering confidence in Sam Montembeault’s, whether that was justified or not), is still officially just a rookie.

While Vasilevskiy has rebounded from recent disappointing playoff performances (at least to a degree so far), it’s safe to say Dobes has dispelled any concerns he lacks what it takes to handle the pressure of playing in the playoffs in one of the toughest markets in the hockey world. Dobes may have lost Game 6 in overtime. However, he gave the Canadiens a chance to win with a spectacular performance, arguably outplaying Vasilevskiy in the game, at least leading up to the game-winning goal, and the series so far with a 2.19 goals-against average (2.20 for Vasilevskiy) and .916 save percentage (.905).

It’s true that Vasilevskiy has (slightly) outperformed Dobes in one critical area, goals saved above expected, per MoneyPuck.com. However, that really just translates to the Canadiens having made life more difficult on him than the Lightning have on Dobes… which means the Habs have technically outplayed the Lightning. That’s what the stats say, like it or not Lightning fans. Whether or not that will in turn translate to a win for the road team in Game 7 is anyone’s guess in a series that has been a veritable toss-up, each game having been decided by one goal. And, in such a tight series, the road team must feel pretty comfortable with who’s in theirs.

In other words, the Canadiens have good reason to be confident, without the pressure that comes with staring down a potential fourth first-round exit as a modern-day dynasty in undeniable decline. Just saying.

Anything can happen in a Game 7, but what should, if the Habs stick to their game and seize the moment, is pretty clear.