It’s no secret that the New Jersey Devils need to add scoring at the deadline, especially in the wake of Jack Hughes’ season ending injury. But in the same breath, making a panic move out of desperation could potentially harm their future.
Related: Devils’ Ideal Post-Trade Deadline Roster
Thus, it’s vital that general manager Tom Fitzgerald assesses the full profile of any forward acquisition, not just their point total. Here are the most important aspects for the Devils to look for as the Mar. 7, 3:00 PM ET deadline nears:
Devils Need Finishing
There is no issue that has plagued the Devils more than their inability to finish chances. According to Natural Stat Trick, they’ve scored 21.65 goals below expected. If they were just an average finishing team, they’d likely have four to seven more wins and would be a lock for a divisional playoff spot. They might’ve even been threatening the Washington Capitals for first in the Metropolitan Division.
For further context, the Devils are fourth in the league in expected goals per 60 minutes (xG/60) but 13th in actual goals per 60 (GF/60). While Timo Meier has had the most trouble finishing (6.44 goals below expected), the following players also have three or more goals below expected: Stefan Noesen (-4.95), Jesper Bratt (-4.17), Erik Haula (-4.04) and Nate Bastian (-3.08).
In fact, out of 28 players to take the ice for the Devils this season, just five (17.9%) have finished better than expected: Jack Hughes (+3.89), Seamus Casey (+3.60), Paul Cotter (+2.62), Ondrej Palat (+2.37) and Nico Hischier (+1.26).
The Devils have yet to fill the void left by Tyler Toffoli, who scored 26 goals (+1.62 above expected) for them in 61 games last season. They’ve been paying the price offensively as a result and would greatly benefit from their acquisition(s) having plus-finishing ability, especially with Hughes out.
Need for Speed
Last season, the Devils were one of the fastest teams in the NHL. Their average speed of 24.19 miles per hour (MPH) was in the 93rd percentile (via NHL EDGE). At 5v5, they scored 2.69 goals per 60 minutes (GF/60), eighth in the league.
This season, their average speed has dipped to 23.58 MPH – just below the league average of 23.62. Uncoincidentally, their goal scoring has also dropped to 2.35 GF/60, 20th in the league and a ~13% drop-off. A lot of these woes are due to the regression of Haula, who has not recorded a point in 97 days (28 games). His top skating speed has slowed from 23.45 to 22.19 MPH.
And with Hughes out (one of the fastest skaters in the league), they’re even slower now. As a result, the Devils are certainly in the market for a center, maybe even multiple. Getting someone with a high motor who could also score would tremendously help the team get back to their identity and succeed off the rush.
Drawing Penalties
The ability to draw penalties usually goes hand in hand with having elite speed, but not always. The Devils’ power play currently ranks fifth in the league at 27.2%. However, it’s often been a struggle to get on the power play. Since the New Year, their 56 power play opportunities rank 17th in the league. Even sans-Hughes, they still scored two on the power play against the Dallas Stars.
While a player drawing a penalty won’t directly show up on the scoresheet, it will often lead to a goal. Now, obviously the Devils still have to use common sense here. It wouldn’t make sense to trade for a player who consistently draws penalties but does nothing else. However, if it came down to two very similar acquisitions, a drastic difference in this category should give one the edge over the other.
Faceoff Ability
Nico Hischier, Haula and Curtis Lazar are the only Devils with a faceoff percentage over 50%. However, most analytics show that Haula and Lazar have been net-negatives in nearly every other aspect, leaving Hischier as the only center reliable in the dot and on the scoresheet.
While faceoffs don’t always matter a ton, a key faceoff in an important spot could be the difference between advancing or going home come playoff time. We saw that in full effect in their most recent contest, when Haula lost a key draw that led to the Stars’ game winning goal. It would be vital to have someone else, aside from Hischier, who the Devils could confidently deploy to win a draw in high leverage situations.
No Perfect Solution
There aren’t many players available who possess all of these qualities, but there are definitely some who possess two or three of the four. Check out this piece for specifically named targets, all of whom are still available at the time of writing.
These next ~24 hours are going to be vital not just for the outlook of the Devils’ 2024-25 season, but for their future as well. As always, stay tuned to The Hockey Writers for all of your trade deadline coverage.
