Last season saw anything but a typical first round in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. All the favorites, or every higher seed except for the Winnipeg Jets, won their matchups in what became a “chalk” bracket. Usually, upsets in the first round are commonplace and almost anticipated as part of the playoffs (2023, for example, saw two top seeds eliminated by wild cards).
Related: Senators Have Difference-Makers To Pull Off Upset Against Maple Leafs
This season, there are a few teams capable of pulling off an upset. The four wild card teams are the Minnesota Wild, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, and St. Louis Blues, all of which have a good chance of advancing. Which team is the most likely? That’s what we’ll try to find out!
4. Minnesota Wild
The Wild stumbled into the playoffs with only five wins in their final 12 games, and they don’t have a lot working in their favor. Their defense and goaltending are good, as they allowed only 2.91 goals per game, but the offense is a weak link and one of the worst to make the playoffs, averaging only 2.78 goals per game.
It also doesn’t help that the Vegas Golden Knights look like one of the most complete teams heading into the playoffs. They don’t have any glaring weaknesses and are a team that’s proven they can go on a deep playoff run, which they did in 2023. On top of that, the Golden Knights have the star power, led by Jack Eichel and Mark Stone, along with the depth to defeat the Wild and do so in multiple ways.
The Wild can pull off the upset if Kirill Kaprizov, who just recently returned to the lineup, lifts the offense. Likewise, the defense can take over this series with Brock Faber, Jacob Middleton, and the rest of the unit forcing the Golden Knights to take shots from tough angles while Filip Gustavsson outduels Adin Hill. However, it doesn’t seem likely that will happen, and the Wild will lose the series to go a decade without a series victory.
3. St. Louis Blues
The Winnipeg Jets have been the best team in the NHL all season, winning the Presidents’ Trophy with a 56-22-4 record. They also have not only the best goaltender with Connor Hellebuyck in the net but the frontrunner for the Hart Trophy as he’s been far and above the best in the league. All that said, they are stumbling into the playoffs with notable players injured as they prepare for a deep playoff run.
Gabe Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers scored 51 goals while adding 73 assists to the top six. Both skaters are out to begin the first round, and Ehlers, who has a long injury history, is week-to-week. The Jets still have plenty of firepower in the forward unit, yet the absence of both skaters will set them back offensively, and it sets them up for a series where they’ll need to rely on their defense.
The Blues, meanwhile, are flying into the playoffs. They played their best hockey down the stretch, and a 13-game winning streak catapulted them into the final wild card spot in the Western Conference. The Blues are led by a great defense that allows only 2.85 goals per game, and goaltender Jordan Binnington has proven that when the pressure is greatest, he can deliver. Pair that with a great offense, and they are a team built to pull off an upset.
History might repeat itself, which is something that many Jets fans are worried about. In the 2018-19 season, the Jets were the best team in the Central Division, but they faced the Blues in the first round and let a few games get away from them. The Blues won the series and went on a run to win their first and only Stanley Cup title. Ironically, they did it with defense and goaltending leading the way. It would be no surprise if the same thing happened again only six seasons later.
2. Ottawa Senators
The Battle of Ontario is back, and the stage is set for a memorable series. It’s a matchup where the Toronto Maple Leafs are the better team, but they have all the pressure. They aren’t facing the Boston Bruins, a team that’s historically had their number, and they aren’t facing a juggernaut like the Tampa Bay Lightning or the Florida Panthers either. They face the upstart Senators, a team with glaring weaknesses and not much playoff experience, a team that, by all means, the Maple Leafs should beat.
The problem is that the Senators match up well against them. Brady Tkachuk is a power forward who can take over a game or a series with his physical yet skilled presence. Jake Sanderson is an elite two-way defenseman who can shut down the Maple Leafs and beat them at the point.
Then there’s the biggest difference maker with Linus Ullmark in the net. He’s one of the few elite goaltenders in the playoffs and he can shut down the Maple Leafs’ offense. If this series becomes a goaltending duel, the Senators have the advantage. Ullmark can outplay Anthony Stolarz, who is having a great season but isn’t in the same tier.
The only thing working against the Senators is their offense. They have the skill with Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, and Tkachuk leading the top six, but the offense as a whole is underwhelming, averaging only 2.97 goals per game. The Maple Leafs, meanwhile, have one of the best offenses in the league, so if this series becomes a high-scoring one, the Senators won’t have much of a chance. Otherwise, this series could be theirs for the taking.
1. Montreal Canadiens
It took until the final game of the regular season for the Canadiens to make it to the playoffs, but they secured their spot with a 4-1 win on April 17 against the Carolina Hurricanes. They’ve been a rebuilding team for years, but now it’s safe to say they are looking ahead and starting to become contenders. Now that the Canadiens are in the playoffs, they could make some noise.
The Canadiens are a young and unproven team, yet they have a lot working in their favor. The top line, consisting of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky, might be the best forward line in the NHL. They also have a lot of talent in their forward group to fuel a great offense, one that averaged 3.04 goals per game this season, with 3.15 goals per game since the 4 Nations Face-Off break. The Canadiens also have a great defense, or at least two defensemen they can lean on, with Mike Matheson being the reliable veteran, while Lane Hutson is the Calder Trophy frontrunner as the remarkable two-way defenseman.
They face the Washington Capitals, a team that has looked concerning in recent weeks. They finished the season with the best record in the Eastern Conference despite going 4-7-1 to finish. The Capitals are also battling injuries with Logan Thompson and Aliaksei Protas both questionable to start the playoffs.
The Capitals also don’t have a star who can take over a series. Consider this: Dylan Strome leads the team with 81 points. Nick Suzuki leads the Canadiens with 89 points. By all means, the Capitals look like a team that can have a great regular season but isn’t built for the playoffs.
The Canadiens have questions in net, and their lack of depth could work against them. Then again, the Capitals enter this series with questions in net as well. If Thompson is healthy, they’ll be fine, but that’s a big if. He would give the Capitals a clear-cut advantage, but the series otherwise favors the Canadiens, oddly enough.
Which Wild Card Team Is Best Set Up For a Cup Run?
The Blues did it before, and they can do it again. It’s easy to look at the 2018-19 team as a different group, and for the most part, it is, since only Binnington and a handful of skaters remain from that run. However, this team is eerily similar, only this time Philip Broberg, Justin Faulk, and Cam Fowler lead the defense instead of Alex Pietrangelo, Jay Bouwmeester, and Joel Edmundson. The Blues are also one of the few teams with a goaltender who has gotten hot in the net, and it’s something few teams in the playoffs have.
Speaking of goaltenders, that’s why the Senators are the other team to watch. Ullmark can carry them in the net, and while the playoffs have eluded him in the past, he’s capable of putting together multiple great starts. It’s not just Ullmark, but the Senators have the difference makers, notably Tkachuk, as the true wild card in the playoffs.
Which team do you think is most likely to pull off an upset in the first round? Let us know in the comments section below!
