The Edmonton Oilers are the favourites. That’s all hockey fans have heard when it comes to who will win this year’s Stanley Cup. Many in the media, along with several sports betting websites, gave them the top odds to hoist Lord Stanley after they fell just one win shy of doing it last year.
The reasons for having them as the favourite certainly made sense. They’ve been on plenty of deep runs in recent years, and have a ton of talent on their roster, including names such as Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard, and Mattias Ekholm. Despite all that talent, however, there have been some glaring issues arising with their roster.
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The Oilers, despite all their talent, are a team with several flaws. They’ve been somewhat exposed as of late, and it’s resulted in them dropping down the list in the eyes of many when it comes to true Stanley Cup contenders. Though anything can happen in the playoffs, this doesn’t feel like a team capable of winning it all, based mainly on these six reasons.
Goaltending Has Been Abysmal
The biggest concern for the Oilers heading into the playoffs is in between the pipes. Stuart Skinner, who is currently out with an upper-body injury, is having an ugly season. The 26-year-old has a suspect 2.91 goals-against average (GAA) along with a .894 save percentage (SV%) through 49 appearances this season. Even worse, his play has been trending in the wrong direction as of late.
Skinner has posted a SV% of .900 or better in just three of his last 15 appearances. That is a serious cause for concern for an Oilers team that needs to rely on him in order to go on a deep run. Some may argue Calvin Pickard is the better option, though he hasn’t been much better this season with a 2.64 GAA and a .902 SV%. Those stats have also come in the easier matchups that are assigned to backup goaltenders.
This duo was able to lead the Oilers to a Stanley Cup Final a season ago, though they were not struggling at this level heading into the playoffs. It is wishful thinking at best to envision them flipping the switch once the postseason rolls around.
Injuries a Cause for Concern
The Oilers have run into some serious health problems as of late. Connor McDavid continues to remain out of the lineup after suffering an injury against the Winnipeg Jets. Leon Draisaitl was able to return for a brief period after a lower-body injury, but has since sustained a different injury and is currently listed as day-to-day.
Ekholm, arguably the most important piece on the Oilers’ back end, has missed several games as of late, and there is speculation that he won’t be fully healthy again this season. He isn’t the only banged-up member on the back end, as John Klingberg has struggled to stay healthy during his brief Oilers tenure.
On top of that, Evander Kane has yet to play this season. It’s going to be tough for him to get up to full speed once the playoffs begin, and the same can be said for Trent Frederic. Though Frederic was recently able to make his Oilers debut, he appeared to re-injure himself early into the first period, and is once again being listed as day-to-day.
McDavid Hasn’t Been Himself
It wouldn’t be fair to say McDavid has had a bad season. That said, for what we’ve come to expect from the greatest player on the planet, it’s been disappointing. Prior to his injury, he had 26 goals and 90 points through 63 games. Those are outstanding totals for most, but feel rather underwhelming for a player just two seasons removed from hitting a ridiculous 153 points.
For whatever reason, McDavid just hasn’t seemed himself this season. Now out with injury, he too will need to figure out a way to dial things up just as the games are getting really difficult. It’s certainly not impossible he’s able to do it, but his play through 63 games is somewhat concerning for an Oilers team that relies very heavily on him.
Depth Scoring Issues
Nobody would have envisioned that the Oilers would have trouble scoring goals this season. Thanks to the production of McDavid and Draisaitl, they haven’t by any means had issues finding the back of the net, though their offence hasn’t been nearly as dominant as everyone predicted entering the 2024-25 campaign.
A big reason for that is the fact that Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson haven’t meshed as everyone predicted. They’ve combined for just 29 goals and 53 points on the season. Meanwhile, Hyman hasn’t been nearly as productive as he was a season ago, and, though he’s heated up as of late, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has also been disappointing.
Making matters worse is that Dylan Holloway is lighting the world on fire with the St. Louis Blues. His 63 points would rank third amongst Oilers forwards. They could desperately use that production, as they don’t have much secondary scoring throughout their lineup right now, and that could prove to be a huge issue come the playoffs.
Blue Line Holes
Another area of concern for this Oilers team is its blue line depth. To be fair, they did add to it in a big way at the trade deadline by acquiring Jake Walman from the San Jose Sharks. He’s proven to be a great addition early on and has added some stability which they desperately needed. That said, the back end as a whole is far from perfect.
Not only is Ekholm less than 100 percent, but Bouchard has really struggled this season from a defensive standpoint. The loss of Cody Ceci has proven tougher than many imagined, as they’ve struggled to find anybody capable of logging the top-four minutes he did in past seasons.
What was said about Holloway rings true with Philip Broberg as well. He would be playing a huge role for this team, as he’s a far better defender than some of their current options such as Ty Emberson, John Klingberg, and Troy Stecher, who have all played semi-regular minutes this season. Lack of depth on the bottom pair could get exposed in the postseason.
Penalty Kill Struggles
The final reason for major concern with this Oilers team is their struggles on the penalty kill. That said, there is little reason to believe that they can just flip that switch for a second-straight year when the stakes and competition are cranked up to an entirely different level.
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The Oilers’ penalty kill sits at a disappointing 77.9 percent. That actually ranks 18th in the league, which is a true testament to how good teams are getting on the power play. That said, there are only four teams in a playoff position with a worse penalty kill right now: the Ottawa Senators, Vegas Golden Knights, St. Louis Blues, and Minnesota Wild. If they remain around the 77.9 percent mark in the playoffs, they will struggle to get by teams with a good power play group.
Potential Lost Season
With this Oilers team, every season is now being viewed as a Stanley Cup or bust type year. They have two of the game’s greatest players in the world, and have done a good job of surrounding them with some other solid talent. That said, they feel much more top-heavy this season than they did a year ago, and it could result in an early exit and a wasted season of the McDavid/Draisaitl era.
