8 NHL Teams That Could Regress in 2026-27

The 2025-26 NHL season saw plenty of change in the standings. Teams like the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers were surprise playoff teams, while the San Jose Sharks improved by 34 points. Some of these teams may be due to take a step back. Here are eight that could regress in 2026-27.

Colorado Avalanche

Regression is almost a certainty for the Avalanche after the season they had. Fifty-five wins and 121 points are difficult to repeat. Just ask the most recent Presidents’ Trophy winners, the Winnipeg Jets and New York Rangers, who missed the playoffs the seasons after finishing with the NHL’s best record.

That’s not to say that the Avalanche will miss the playoffs. They’re still the favorites to win the Central Division, but they’ll probably be closer to something like 105 points than 121. They’ve had a bit of turnover this offseason as well, trading Ross Colton, Jack Drury, and Valeri Nichushkin to free up cap space.

The Avalanche did replace those players, but Jaden Schwartz, Zachary L’Hereux, and Fedor Svechkov are not quite on their levels. Still, the Avalanche should still be one of the top five-on-five teams. Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar aren’t going anywhere, so the pieces are still in place, but it’d be unfair to expect them to repeat a ridiculous 121-point season.

Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers were a decent five-on-five team in 2025-26, finishing with an expected goals share (xG%) of 50.71 percent, but they were a low-event team, playing a more defensive style of hockey.

That could come back to bite them, as they averaged just 2.45 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. They haven’t made any notable additions on offense this offseason and still lack a No. 1 center. Will they be able to score enough goals? That’s their biggest question mark heading into the new season.

Plus, the Metropolitan Division has improved this summer, with teams like the Washington Capitals, New Jersey Devils, and even the Rangers all boosting their squads with multiple additions. They might not all end up as playoff teams, but they can chip away at the 97 points the Flyers totaled.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins were an even bigger playoff surprise than the Flyers. They finished second in the Metro after most writers, including myself, said they would be in the running to draft Gavin McKenna with the first overall pick in the 2026 draft.

Head coach Dan Muse changed the way the Penguins played, and they were a good five-on-five team last season. They finished the regular season with an xG% of 51.52 percent, but there’s been plenty of change this offseason. Anthony Mantha, who potted 33 goals, signed with the Devils. They’ve also lost some key depth players like Noel Acciari and Ryan Shea.

Furthermore, the Penguins finished with the second-highest five-on-five shooting percentage in the NHL last season. They play a style of hockey conducive to plus finishing, but there could still be some five-on-five scoring regression ahead. Their goaltending is also a question mark, and their blue line is arguably the worst in the Metro. I don’t see the bottom falling out, but they could at least fall out of playoff contention.

San Jose Sharks

The Sharks have the most variance heading into the new NHL season. I have them making the playoffs in the Pacific, but it also wouldn’t shock me if they take a step back before making a huge leap in 2027-28.

The reason is that the Sharks were among the worst five-on-five teams in the NHL last season. They finished with an xG% of 46.91, and I’m not sure how much they’ve upgraded this summer. Michael Kesselring and Mason Marchment were solid additions, but Darnell Nurse and Jacob Trouba are more likely to be anchors than positive contributors.

At the same time, the Sharks have a ton of young talent that could make further strides in their development. They’re a difficult team to project because of their youth, which is why they have so much variance.

Boston Bruins

If there’s a playoff team that’s the best bet to fall out of contention, it’s the Bruins. They were one of the worst five-on-five teams in the NHL but clinched a playoff berth on the backs of exceptional goaltending from Jeremy Swayman and a terrific season from David Pastrnak.

The Bruins finished last season with an xG% of 46.66 percent, 28th in the NHL. History shows that teams with the Bruins’ profile tend to struggle the following season unless they make significant improvements at five-on-five.

I suppose that’s possible, but the Bruins have had a relatively quiet offseason aside from acquiring JJ Peterka. They’re also in the toughest division in the NHL, and the Metro improving could chip away at their point total as well. They’re more likely to be in the conversation for a top-ten pick than a playoff team, in my opinion.

Minnesota Wild

Some pundits see the Wild as Stanley Cup contenders. They’re not there yet, and they could even take a step back next season. Like the Avalanche, I don’t see them falling out of the playoff race, but they do have a weaker roster entering 2026-27.

The Wild have lost three middle-six forwards who totaled 45-55 points in Marcus Johansson, Vladimir Tarasenko, and Mats Zuccarello. The only replacement to this point has been Blake Coleman. He’s a solid middle-six forward, but he won’t replace all the offense the Wild have lost.

Another problem the Wild have entering the new season is that they don’t have a No. 1 center. Joel Eriksson Ek is one of the NHL’s more underrated pivots, but he’s not a No. 1 on a Cup contender. The Wild finished with 104 points last season, but I could see them finishing in a wild-card spot in the 94-95 point range, especially with the Utah Mammoth improving this offseason.

Los Angeles Kings

There are a couple of teams stuck in NHL purgatory, and the Kings are one of them. They made the playoffs last season, but did so via the loser point. They won just 35 games but had 20 overtime losses to help them sneak into the postseason.

Surprisingly, the Kings were a solid five-on-five team. They finished with an xG% of 52.19 percent, seventh in the NHL, but their roster has plenty of flaws. One) I swear their average age is 40, and they did not get any younger by signing Zuccarello and Erik Haula in free agency. Two) The Kings also lack a No. 1 center. Quinton Byfield has upside, but he’s yet to reach his full potential. They need him to start living up to it.

There’s some firepower on the wing with Kevin Fiala and Artemi Panarin, but the Kings look poised for a step back, even though the bottom half of the West doesn’t look particularly great. Those 20 overtime losses are more likely to turn into regulation defeats, and that could knock them out of contention.

Ottawa Senators

Trading Brady Tkachuk will be a tough blow for the Senators, at least on the ice. William Eklund will replace some of what they lose with Tkachuk, but he’s a different type of player. He won’t bring the physicality and tenacity that Tkachuk does.

The issue for the Senators is the Atlantic Division. The Florida Panthers could be due for a significant step forward after totaling just 84 points last season. And even a team like the Maple Leafs should see some improvement, even though they’re not a lock for the postseason.

At least on paper, the Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres’ rosters look to be ahead of the Senators’. I don’t see the Senators being in the running for a top-five or -ten pick. They have an over/under of 93.5 at DraftKings, but they could slightly hit the under and miss out on the playoffs in a loaded Eastern Conference.

There was plenty of change in the NHL standings last season, and next season has the potential for more turnover. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out.

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