The Buffalo Sabres selected Owen Power first overall in the 2021 NHL Draft, hoping he could transform their core defense. Power will be looking to build on a successful rookie season of 35 points and a third-place finish in Calder Trophy voting. While he is off to a great start, becoming a franchise defenceman doesn’t happen overnight. What is a realistic expectation for him in his second full season?
Reviewing Owen Power’s First Full Season
Power had a tremendous amount of responsibility for a rookie last season. He averaged nearly 24 minutes of ice time per game, which ranked second on the team. These weren’t sheltered minutes either, as Power faced elite competition in 34% of his ice time. For reference, Rasmus Dahlin met elite competition in 28% of his ice time in his rookie season and 37.7% last year.
Power handled his responsibility well, especially from an offensive perspective. He was strong in transition due to his elite passing and skating. Moving the puck into the offensive zone is his bread and butter. While he did put up 35 points, he scored only four goals and didn’t utilize his shot to create offense nearly as much as he did his passing ability.
On the defensive side, Power has a lot of room for improvement. His inability to prevent zone entries and shut down opponents off the rush resulted in many dangerous scoring chances. When he was on the ice last season, Buffalo’s opponents had nearly 54% of the high-danger chances.
What to Expect in 2023-24
While some expect talented young players to develop at a constant upward trajectory, that isn’t always the case. Defencemen have so much to learn that production tends to be inconsistent, even among elite prospects. Quinn Hughes and Moritz Seider saw their offensive production regress slightly in their second season. Even the Sabres’ top blueliner, Dahlin, had a rough 3rd season before breaking out with a couple of huge campaigns in 2021-22 and 2022-23. Slumps are generally part of the development process, and while Power can certainly build on his offense from his rookie season, tempering expectations is also important.
Power has never been a prolific goal scorer; even in college, he did most of his offensive damage with his passing ability. He could reach another gear to become an elite offensive defenceman with improved finishing ability. Since it has never been a major strength of his game, though, don’t expect a massive jump in goals right away.
Power must focus on improving his defensive game in season two. The Sabres added Connor Clifton and Erik Johnson this summer to bolster their defense, but it will take more than two players for the team to take the next step. While they were among the highest-scoring teams in the NHL last season, they ranked 26th in goals against. They also gave up the 4th most high-danger chances in the league. Limiting scoring opportunities will be a focus for the entire team, including Power.
Related: 3 Sabres Players Poised for Breakouts in 2023-24
The Sabres’ new additions could be vital in helping Power improve his defensive game. Clifton has been a reliable defensive defenseman for several years, both at even strength and on the penalty kill, and could be the perfect partner for Power. Clifton can do most of the heavy lifting defensively, while Power can utilize his ability to move the puck to create a balanced duo. Johnson provides added depth that might also allow the Sabres to take some pressure off the rest of the d-core.
Power Must Focus On Defensive Game in Season Two
Year two should be about building up Power’s defensive game to handle the hard minutes the Sabres need him to play. If Buffalo is going to jump into Stanley Cup contention over the next few years, Power’s development in that department will be key. Defense will likely be the most significant area of improvement, given the roster’s additions.
As far as Power’s offensive game is concerned, I expect a similar production to last season. Even if the numbers drop slightly, that wouldn’t be unusual for an elite young defenceman learning the NHL game and trying to get better at both ends of the ice. He will need to improve his finishing ability and impact on the power play if he’s going to increase his offensive production dramatically. But since he’s never been an elite shooter, it will likely be a multi-year project to add that weapon to his arsenal.
As we inch toward training camp and the hype around this season’s Sabres continues to grow, I think it’s important not to place unrealistic expectations on Power. Fans can expect him to try and add a few new dimensions to his game, but history shows us that most of the top defensemen in the NHL take at least three or four seasons to really hit their stride.
All stats from Natural Stat Trick, PuckIQ, and StatMuse.
