Matthew Knies may be in line for a significant contract extension, potentially on par with recent mega-signings like Juraj Slafkovsky’s eight-year, $60.8 million deal with the Montreal Canadiens and Alexis Lafrenière’s seven-year, $7.45 million contract with the New York Rangers. At least, that’s what Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos remarked in a recent conversation about a Knies’ extension.
With Jake McCabe now signed to a new five-year deal in Toronto, the focus will shift to other contracts that could get done this summer. Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and Knies are at the top of the list.
What Is Knies Worth on a Long-Term Extension with the Maple Leafs?
That Knies might be worth a huge raise on a long-term extension was an idea tossed out there by former NHL player and Sportsnet analyst Nick Kypreos. He suggested that the Maple Leafs might skip right over a bridge deal and opt for a long-term extension with the young forward. It would be a risk, but if the calculated gamble pays off, the Leafs could get Knies locked in at a much lower AAV than he’s worth when he develops and the salary cap is at $100 million per season.
While Kypreos did not confirm that Knies is actively seeking this kind of contract, he believes that if the Maple Leafs were to negotiate a long-term deal, it could resemble those signed by Slafkovsky. He didn’t mention Lafrenière’s name, but by association, the contract is also comparable.
Slafkovsky signed a new deal on July 1, 2024, worth $7.6 million per season. A former first-overall selection, he was coming off of a 20-goal and 50-point season. Lafreniere signed a deal just recently (Oct. 25) worth $7.45 million per season. He was also a former first-overall pick and he posted 28 goals and 57 points in 2023-24.
Is Knies worth that much on a new deal? The prospect of paying him that much is questionable. On one hand, the Maple Leafs might be betting on Knies to significantly outperform his current numbers throughout the contract. Kypreos called him the top left-winger on his team. Conversely, the team has to realize the risk of committing to a player who has scored a career-high 35 points in a single season.
Knies Is Not Either Of These Players… At Least Not Yet
Knies, a second-round draft pick, is not Slafkovsky, nor is he Lafreniere. Slafkovsky took a second to find his footing in the NHL, but once he did, he exploded offensively. Meanwhile, Lafreniere has enjoyed several 30-plus point seasons and has been in the NHL since the 2020-21 season. While Slafkosky’s deal might have been a touch high and a tad premature, he’s on a point-per-game pace to start the season. He’s got an incredible ceiling and he’s only getting better. Diddo for Lafreniere.
Knies isn’t close to reaching the same production levels as either player and he’s often playing alongside the team’s star forwards, which may have inflated his point totals compared to the other two.
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Nevertheless, Knies is starting to score goals, tallying four in his first nine games this season. His performance suggests that he might be on the verge of a breakout, which could affect his market value. Should Knies hit the 50-point marker this season, the Leafs might have a case for investing in him before he really finds his groove in the NHL.
What If Knies Never Reaches the Same Level as Slafkosvky or Lafreniere?
With the NHL salary cap expected to rise in the coming years, evaluating Knies’s worth becomes increasingly complex. He could become a regular 25 or 30-goal forward in the NHL. Then again, he might only ever been a top-six supplementary piece who has great hustle and drive, but never becomes a top offensive threat.
If the latter, how valuable of an asset does he become for the Maple Leafs? Would a seven or eight-year deal at $7.5 million be considered a massive overpay? Or, might that be the going rate in three years when the cap his much higher and he continues to evolve into a player who can significantly impact games, but maybe doesn’t score as much?