Before the Minnesota Wild vs. Vegas Golden Knights series started, we previewed it on The Hockey Writers Playoff Preview Show. One of the many points mentioned and discussed was our prediction for the series.
Related: 4 Takeaways From the Wild’s Overtime Loss to the Golden Knights in Game 4
I said the Golden Knights would win in six games, and it wouldn’t be as easy as some are saying. In an ESPN article published before the series, 25/26 analysts said the Golden Knights would win the series, and in quite dominant fashion.
The list can be seen below:
Sean Allen: Wild in seven
Blake Bolden: Golden Knights in five
John Buccigross: Golden Knights in seven
Ryan Callahan: Golden Knights in six
Cassie Campbell-Pascall: Golden Knights in six
Sachin Chandan: Golden Knights in five
Meghan Chayka: Golden Knights in five
Ryan S. Clark: Golden Knights in six
Linda Cohn: Golden Knights in six
Rachel Doerrie: Golden Knights in six
Ray Ferraro: Golden Knights in five
Emily Kaplan: Golden Knights in sixe
Tim Kavanagh: Golden Knights in five
Peter Lawrence-Riddell: Golden Knights in five
Steve Levy: Golden Knights in five
Vince Masi: Golden Knights in six
Victoria Matiash: Golden Knights in six
Sean McDonough: Golden Knights in five
Mark Messier: Golden Knights in five
AJ Mleczko: Golden Knights
Mike Monaco: Golden Knights in six
Arda Öcal: Golden Knights in five
Kristen Shilton: Golden Knights in five
P.K. Subban: Golden Knights in six
Bob Wischusen: Golden Knights in six
Greg Wyshynski: Golden Knights in five
Most analysts are leaning toward Vegas closing it out in six games, with the lone exception being Sean Allen, who’s picking the Wild to rally in seven. While these are just predictions, a Game 5 win by the Golden Knights would be pivotal, dramatically boosting their odds of taking the series.
So, what do the percentages look like when it comes down to winning Game 5 and the rest of the series when things are knotted up at 2-2? Let’s break it down.
The Impact of Winning Game 5
With four games in the books, the series is now a best-of-three, a different way to frame the final stretch. Historically, when a best-of-seven series is tied 2-2, the winner of Game 5 goes on to claim it 78.8 percent of the time.
Take the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, for example, when the Golden Knights fell behind 3-2 to the Dallas Stars. History held true, as they ultimately lost the series in seven games. It’s another example in a growing list from recent years that shows just how critical winning Game 5 can be.
The stakes in Game 5 also couldn’t be higher for both the Wild and Golden Knights. For Minnesota, a win would move them one step closer to ending a decade-long playoff series drought that fans have long agonized over.
For Vegas, it would mark their first trip out of the opening round since 2023, the year they won the Stanley Cup, as they try to avoid making early exits a trend.
The Cost of Losing Game 5 for Vegas
If the Golden Knights lose Game 5 against the Wild, history gives them a 21.2 percent chance to win the series, which isn’t great odds. It also puts them on elimination watch, and they’d have to travel back to St. Paul, Minnesota, a duo of a disaster.
Pressure also builds, and suddenly, routine plays aren’t being made routinely, and so on. You get the point: Lots of bad comes from losing Game 5. Typically, those bad things also end teams’ hopes at the Stanley Cup, and in this case, there’d be nearly an 80% chance of that happening.
The Golden Knights have seen what Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and the rest of the Wild can do when they’re on their A-game. They throttled Vegas in Games 2 and 3 and can be one of the most dangerous teams in the NHL.
High Stakes in Las Vegas
High stakes indeed, as tonight we’ll see who historically has a near 80% chance to win this highly entertaining series. The Golden Knights will have the home crowd backing them up, where they’re 1-1 on home ice thus far during the playoffs. Puck drop is set for 6:30 PDT at T-Mobile Arena Tuesday night.
