The beginning of 2026 has already been a roller coaster for the Toronto Maple Leafs. On Saturday, the Maples Leafs lost a game against the New York Islanders that they probably should have won, on a night where Auston Matthews made a type of history that was a decade in the making.
Then, on Tuesday, the Leafs won maybe their best game of the season against the Florida Panthers, who are in a race for the playoffs right alongside the blue and white.
While 2026 might be a roller coaster, the ride started months ago. It’s reaching a peak right now (points in seven-straight games), but it has also consisted of lows that we have not seen in the regular season from this team in years.
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Through all of it, the narratives have been plentiful. Are the Maple Leafs a playoff team? Can they thrive without Mitch Marner? Is Matthews still an elite player? Has the Stanley Cup window officially closed? And the list goes on.
The truth is, this is a very important season for Toronto, and no matter how it finishes, there is a comfort in knowing that the murky future of this team will be a lot clearer in a few months, and maybe, just maybe, by the end of June.
The Leafs Are a Playoff Team Until Proven Otherwise
Let’s start with the positive, and we’ll slowly make our way to the negative.
This has been a crazy season in the NHL, where bad teams have become competitive, and good teams have become giant question marks. The latter, of course, includes the Maple Leafs. It also includes the likes of the Panthers, the Vegas Golden Knights, and the Edmonton Oilers, just to name a few. We have also seen the Buffalo Sabres be awful and now good, and the Winnipeg Jets be good, and now awful.
Yet, sometimes, we need to lean on what we know based on history and not always based on current events, and that could very well apply in Toronto.
Yes, this team is different roster-wise, and yes, this team has had a hard time finding and building chemistry (which might have as much to do with injuries as it does with the roster). But the truth is that the Maple Leafs have made it to the playoffs in nine-straight seasons. They have players and coaches who know what it takes to get to Game 83.
Despite the up-and-down starts from the Panthers, Golden Knights, and Oilers, fans and media alike seem to be giving them the benefit of the doubt that they will figure it out as the season rolls on. Now, that is because all three of those teams have been to the Stanley Cup Final in the last three years, and two of them have won it. Fair enough. That can’t be said about the Leafs, obviously.
Then there’s the Sabres, who just rattled off a 10-game winning streak that made believers of many. But, don’t we all have to assume they are going to find a way to miss the playoffs like they do every year? That is, of course, until they don’t.
The same can, and should, be said for the Leafs. It’s been a tough season, and they should be judged accordingly. All I’m saying is that this team should be given the benefit of the doubt, based on history, that they will find a way to make it to the playoffs. That is, of course, until they don’t.
What a Playoff Appearance Would Reveal
There is a common thought across every sport that injuries are not an excuse for a lack of success, and there are a lot of layers to that. If you have a deep enough roster, injury issues can be covered up. However, if you lose enough key players, it doesn’t matter how deep you are; the product on the ice is going to suffer.
That being said, the Leafs are not a deep team, and they can’t afford the injuries they already have, let alone any more. Yet, it seems like every day, another player is added to the injured reserve (IR), or is listed as day-to-day. If we’re honest, day-to-day in Toronto could mean month-to-month or out for the season.
If the Leafs find a way to make it to the postseason, it will reveal a level of grit and determination that they haven’t needed to have in the regular season. For years, the playoffs have been a formality in Toronto. Safe to say they are not anymore.
Remember the years when we knew the Leafs were playing the Boston Bruins or the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round by December? The regular season hasn’t mattered in almost a decade, and now, the Leafs have to dig deep and play meaningful games right through until the finish line.
Most of the core is locked up for the near future, both on offense and on defense. Are there concerns like health and age? Of course. But a playoff berth, under the circumstances that this season has provided, should restore a new faith in the makeup and character of this team that has been lost, or at least doubted three months into the season.
What Missing the Playoffs Would Reveal
Let’s get to the darker side of all of this. What would it mean if the Leafs missed the playoffs?
Sometimes, good teams have bad seasons. It happened to the Golden Knights in recent history, it happened to the New York Rangers last season, and in the National Football League, it just happened to the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.
Would it mean that the Leafs need to blow it up? Would the post-Marner era already be a complete failure? Would it be time to move on from head coach Craig Berube?
Well, considering Matthews, Matthew Knies, and William Nylander are all locked up for at least the next two seasons, as is half of their defense, it seems like “blowing it up” would be a very hard thing to do. To me, it’s all about how they would miss the playoffs.
If they are in the mix right until the end, I think it’s ok to realize that the rest of the league is catching up to the perennial contenders and approach the offseason accordingly. General manager Brad Treliving hasn’t really had to build anything from scratch in Toronto. He’s just had to sustain the foundation that was already provided to him. If they don’t play in the spring, I don’t think they should fire him. It will just be an opportunity for him to prove what he can do.
I think the same thing applies to the coach. With Marner’s departure, the system has had to trump talent. Nothing against any of the coaches of the past, but that hasn’t always applied. Berube’s approach to the game is much different, especially from Sheldon Keefe’s, and Marner leaving the fold was another massive change to the way this team has grown accustomed to playing.
The main thing that I think will be revealed, whether the Leafs make the playoffs or not, is that the window to win the Cup is officially smaller than it has been for this team in the last five years or so. It doesn’t mean that they are a bad team, and it doesn’t mean that they have to start from scratch. It does mean, however, that they will have to build back up to dominant team we have known them to be.
The Future Will Be Revealed
As you can tell from earlier, I do believe this team is a playoff team, and I will believe that until I am proven otherwise. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t criticize them or specific players when they are not playing up to their capabilities. There has just been a lot of doom and gloom surrounding the Leafs, and I think, based on history, it is unwarranted.
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Does that mean I think this team can win the Stanley Cup? It’s easy, based on what we’ve seen this season and the topic at hand, history, to say no. But the entire Eastern Conference is in flux right now, and if they can build on what we’ve seen since Christmas, I really do believe they have as good a chance as anyone, at least in the East.
Sometimes, in the city of Toronto, it feels like the general public thinks that missing the playoffs would be a failure. To me, it’s an opportunity to be honest about this new NHL that we are witnessing, and to be honest about what the Leafs need to do to adapt.
Take a breath, Toronto. It will be ok. That is, until it isn’t.
