Expect Dylan Larkin to Be Traded by Thanksgiving

With Dylan Larkin and his camp deciding they’ve had enough, opting to sit out of all games to try and force a trade out of Detroit, it appears that we are finally approaching the time of a trade. Larkin’s representation says they believe Larkin has been professional and patient but that their patience is running thin.

I know that they feel like it’s been long enough, with Larkin’s trade request going public over five months ago. However, Detroit only just named their interim GM back in September, with Shawn Horcoff needing to restart negotiations and talks with Larkin and the NHL teams on his trade list. Sure, Larkin has taken his lumps and handled the boos from his hometown fans admirably, but it seems like he forgot that he is trying to force his way out, giving the team no leverage in a trade. 

Horcoff has responded, with the team suspending Larkin without pay and declaring that his focus is on what’s best for the future of the Detroit Red Wings, not just Larkin himself. However, as we saw in the Connor Hellebuyck trade situation, an NHL team can only suspend a player for so long, which effectively puts a timer on a Larkin trade, whether it’s a great deal for Detroit or not.

Copycat League

It’s easy to see that Larkin was watching the Hellebuyck situation and was inspired to follow in his Team USA teammate’s footsteps when the goaltender’s holdout and suspension culminated in a trade late in October. Larkin’s strategy of joining the team for training camp and playing out the season while awaiting a trade was admirable, but clearly wasn’t as effective as he hoped. 

Hellebuyck refused to report to training camp for the Winnipeg Jets, earning himself a suspension without pay for about a month. He missed camp and preseason before sitting out seven regular season games. The collective bargaining agreement (CBA) dictates that an NHL player can be suspended by their team for a reasonable amount of time, using purposefully vague language.

It was unclear how long that would last but days before the Hellebuyck trade, it was announced that his suspension would be coming to an imminent end, and the Jets weren’t willing to pay him his salary to sit at home awaiting a trade. He was traded to the New Jersey Devils the day before his suspension was set to end.

The CBA language implies that suspension length is based on time not games played (or missed), and both sides (the league and the players’ association) have reportedly agreed that a “reasonable” amount of time for a suspension caps out at about three weeks. That would set the likely deadline for a Larkin trade for November 19. 

Detroit’s Desperation

While the Winnipeg Jets were certainly motivated to move on from the Hellebuyck trade saga, they weren’t in desperate need of an immediate replacement. Free agent signing Stuart Skinner has given them decent goaltending, letting them start decently strong this year without their star goaltender. 

However, Detroit doesn’t have a top-six center replacement for Larkin, and if they want to compete at all this year, they will need to trade Larkin rather than just paying him to sit out after his suspension ends. The meteoric rise of Emmitt Finnie has gone a long way to save the season already in Detroit, with him playing credible top-six minutes down the middle both before Larkin’s suspension and since.

Even if Finnie can become the heir apparent to Larkin as an acceptable first line center who is probably better off playing on the second line, Detroit needs someone who can handle 2C minutes, which they absolutely do not have at the moment.

While a Larkin trade has felt inevitable since the moment his trade request leaked to the public, it feels like the player, franchise, and fanbase are finally getting close to having some closure. The Larkin, Bertuzzi, and Mantha Red Wings were a failure, but hopefully the next crop of youngsters can become more.