Ullmark’s Return Could Make Senators a Serious Threat in the East

The Ottawa Senators are expected to get a major boost between the pipes tonight, with Linus Ullmark expected to return to the lineup against the Colorado Avalanche.

After missing nine games with a lower-body injury, Ottawa’s starting goaltender is poised to return at an important point in the season. While his absence has given Samuel Ersson an opportunity to take on a larger role, getting Ullmark back could be exactly what the Senators need as they look to build on their recent improvements.

Ullmark suffered the injury during Ottawa’s Oct. 21 matchup against the Florida Panthers. After making a pad save on a shot in the third period, he appeared to be in considerable discomfort and required assistance leaving the ice. The injury forced him to the injured reserve, leaving the Senators without the goaltender who had arguably been their most important player through the opening portion of the season.

When healthy, Ullmark has been outstanding. He has put together numbers that place him among the NHL’s elite goaltenders, and his performance has been particularly important because it has allowed Ottawa to remain competitive even when its play in front of him has not been up to standard.

Through the early portion of the season, Ullmark has posted a remarkable .945 save percentage (SV%) leading the entire NHL. He has also been one of the league’s best goaltenders when facing high-danger opportunities, ranking sixth with a .917 high-danger save percentage. On top of that, he sits fifth in the league in goals saved above expected.

Those numbers tell an important story about Ottawa’s early-season success. The Senators were winning games, but the underlying process was often far from convincing. Their possession numbers were underwhelming, and there were stretches when opponents were generating considerably more opportunities. Rather than consistently controlling games, Ottawa was relying heavily on its goaltender to keep them within striking distance.

Ullmark did exactly that.

His ability to make difficult saves, particularly during stretches when the Senators were being outplayed, was a major reason Ottawa managed to collect points. In many ways, he was covering up some of the team’s early-season deficiencies and giving them time to find their game.

However, there has been a noticeable shift in Ottawa’s play since Ullmark went down with his injury and the Senators have actually improved considerably in the areas that were previously holding them back. Since his injury, Ottawa ranks second in the NHL in Corsi and eighth in expected goals-for percentage (xGF%). The team has done a much better job controlling possession, generating offensive opportunities and spending more time playing in the opposition’s zone.

It is an encouraging development for a team that struggled to establish consistent control earlier in the campaign.

Instead of relying on spectacular goaltending performances to overcome stretches of poor play, the Senators have started to dictate the pace of games themselves. Their recent underlying numbers suggest that the team is beginning to look much more like the competitive, possession-driven group it needs to be if it hopes to make a serious push in the Eastern Conference.

Ersson Has Done His Part

It is also important to give Ersson credit for how he has handled the opportunity.

Before Ullmark’s injury, Ersson had struggled to find consistency. However, when called upon to take on a larger workload, he has stepped in admirably and given Ottawa a chance to win games.

His .895 SV% during Ullmark’s absence may not jump off the page, but it represents a respectable contribution from a goaltender who was not necessarily expected to carry the workload for an extended period.

Ersson deserves credit for providing the Senators with stability during a difficult stretch. He has allowed the team to continue building momentum without having to worry about a significant drop-off in goaltending every night.

There is also something to be said about the experience of receiving consistent starts. As Elliotte Friedman has reported, Ersson views himself as a starter, so getting an extended opportunity in the starter’s role has helped him become more comfortable in Ottawa. Ersson has been able to settle into a more regular routine, and that experience could prove valuable for Ottawa moving forward.

Having two goaltenders capable of providing quality minutes is an important advantage over the course of a long NHL season.

Ullmark Needs to Stay Healthy

There is, however, one significant concern that comes with Ullmark’s return: his ability to stay healthy.

Ullmark has dealt with multiple injury interruptions since arriving in Ottawa, and his latest lower-body injury is another reminder of how important his availability is to the Senators’ success.

There is no questioning how valuable he is when healthy, but availability is becoming just as important as performance. Ottawa invested heavily in Ullmark to be its starting goaltender, and the team needs him available if it hopes to make a meaningful playoff push.

His return against Colorado will be an important first step, but the bigger test will be maintaining his health over the remainder of the season. The Senators cannot afford to repeatedly lose their starting goaltender, particularly with the level of play he demonstrated to begin the campaign.

Ersson has done a respectable job filling in, but there is a difference between providing quality backup minutes and having Ullmark available to give Ottawa a legitimate advantage in net every night.

A Potentially Dangerous Combination

Ultimately, the Senators are beginning to show signs of becoming a much more complete hockey team.

The early-season version of Ottawa was a team that could win games largely because of Ullmark’s brilliance. The more recent version has been controlling possession, generating chances, and doing a much better job of dictating play against its opponents.

Getting Ullmark back into the lineup gives the Senators an opportunity to combine those two elements. If Ottawa can maintain its recent improvements in possession and continue dominating games territorially, and Ullmark can return to the level of play he displayed before his injury, this team could become a difficult opponent for anyone in the league.

There is no guarantee that Ullmark will immediately regain his early-season form after missing time, and the Senators will need to continue proving that their improved underlying numbers are sustainable. More importantly, Ullmark needs to prove that he can stay healthy and handle the demands of being a starting goaltender over the course of a full season.

But the potential is certainly there.

Ottawa has spent much of the season looking for consistency between its goaltending and its overall team game. Now, with its starting goaltender expected back and the team playing some of its best hockey of the season, the Senators have a chance to put those pieces together.

If both trends continue, Ottawa could be in a position to take a significant step forward in the Eastern Conference.