The news the hockey world was waiting for finally dropped within the last week. NHL teams can now start to adequately prepare their cap projections not only for the rest of this season but also for the next three seasons after that.
On Friday, the NHL and NHLPA sent a memo to teams outlining what the salary cap will look like over the next three seasons. The increases are significant. Understanding that some minor tweaks could come for the 2026-27 and 2027-28 seasons, here is what the upper and lower limit of the salary cap will look like.
- 2025-26: Upper limit $95.5 million. Cap floor $70.6 million.
- 2026-27: Upper limit $104 million. Cap floor $76.9 million.
- 2027-28: Upper limit $113.5 million. Cap floor $83.9 million.
After years of seeing the salary cap stay relatively flat, we are finally seeing a massive spike in numbers due to the growth of the league since the Covid-19 pandemic. NHL revenue last season was at a record $6.2 billion thanks to record attendance and a significant growth in sponsorship revenue.
What does this change mean for the Columbus Blue Jackets? It means it opens a wide array of possibilities for a team clearly on the rise in the beginning stages of establishing a contending window.
Setting the Scene
According to PuckPedia, the Blue Jackets have one of the better salary cap situations in the NHL. Even with potential bonuses due to players like Adam Fantilli, Denton Mateychuk and Luca Del Bel Belluz, the team has approximately $18.7 million in projected cap space.
With the cap floor currently at $65 million and the upper limit at $88 million, the Blue Jackets have major flexibility on their side. GM Don Waddell showed interest in trying to trade for Jacob Trouba. That indicates a willingness to make moves when the opportunity presents itself.
With this cap increase, the flexibility only grows. The Blue Jackets still have to take care of their own business as they have several free agents of their own to address. They also have to keep in mind the next contracts members of their young core will get too.
However, if Waddell wants to get creative, he has more room to do so. That’s what happens when the cap three years from now has its upper limit $40 million more than where the Blue Jackets are at currently.
We will explore this situation from three different viewpoints. We will review the short term (rest of this season), medium term (next season) and longer term (starting in 2026-27 and beyond.) There are some key points that need addressed from a Blue Jackets’ standpoint.
Short Term: Deadline Preparation
The March 7 trade deadline is coming fast. Knowing what the numbers look like will help teams plan their next moves. The Blue Jackets find themselves in a unique position.
Going into Sunday’s game against the Dallas Stars, the Blue Jackets own the first wildcard spot in the East. For a team as closer to the cap floor than to the cap ceiling, that is quite an accomplishment.
It does pose some interesting questions for the team. Mainly, how will they approach the trade deadline? Do they want to make a big splash now? Or would they rather not mess with a good thing they have going on?
Going back to Trouba for a moment. The lesson there was Waddell showed a willingness to explore if there was a way to make this happen. He identified a team need and then took steps to see what it would take.
The Anaheim Ducks ultimately got Trouba. But if the right player is available, Waddell will not hesitate if it will make his team better. The real question that he and management will need to answer is will they trade any of their pending UFA’s while in the playoff race?
Ivan Provorov would be the biggest name available as a rental at this deadline. Here is the current list of pending free agents for the Blue Jackets.
- UFA’s: Provorov, Sean Kuraly, Justin Danforth, Mathieu Olivier, James van Riemsdyk, Kevin Labanc, Dante Fabbro, Jack Johnson.
- RFA’s: Dmitri Voronkov, Mikael Pyyhtia, Jordan Harris, Daniil Tarasov.
In terms of deadline preparation, the salary cap isn’t much of a concern for the Blue Jackets. Their real issue is determining if they’ll buy, sell or do a little of both.
If anything, the Blue Jackets can add to this roster for an eventual playoff run. They could also elect to take on a bad contract as well if they get something that makes it worth the investment.
While the cap is set to grow significantly, teams still have to manage today. With so many teams at or near the upper limit of $88 million, some cap brokerage deals can be made in the right situation.
With all that said, the Blue Jackets have cap flexibility but they also don’t want to spend every last penny either. Knowing where the cap is going over the next three seasons will allow them the opportunity to have a more firm plan. This includes how they’ll handle March 7. If they do acquire someone at the deadline, there is room for that player beyond this season.
Medium Term: Next Season
Specifically for the 2025-26 season according to PuckPedia, the Blue Jackets have around $45.1 million in cap space. There will need to be moves to get to the cap floor. While that won’t be an issue, what will be worth watching is how the team decides to use their new found space.
One of the concerns that some teams might have is how much they are willing to spend. Some smaller-market teams might opt to carry an internal cap based on their own budget and needs. The Blue Jackets are a small-market team. Could they be included in this group?
An interesting note on the salary cap numbers released by the NHL and NHLPA today — the $104M upper limit in 2026-27 and $113.5M upper limit in 2027-28 are effectively pencilled in and could theoretically go up.
— Chris Johnston (@reporterchris) January 31, 2025
Ownership wants to win. As long as it’s a move to help in that regard, they would sign off on bigger contracts if given the chance. Recall this situation unfolded when the team tried to re-sign Artemi Panarin. The sense I get is that if it’s the right situation, the Blue Jackets will do what they can to make something work.
But this is a big jump for the cap. Revenue sharing is a big deal for a team like the Blue Jackets. According to Forbes, the Blue Jackets made $151 million in team revenue in 2023. Only Ottawa and Arizona were lower. It will be interesting to see if this is seen as an issue by ownership. That story will become clearer in time.
As for what the cap increase might mean for next season, it means the Blue Jackets could go big-game hunting. What if Mikko Rantanen elects to test free agency for example? What if a trade opportunity for a big-name player comes up? As one of the better positioned teams in the NHL in cap space, they can let situations work themselves out and pounce if needed.
The big takeaway for next season is the extra space gives the Blue Jackets more options to explore. They can comfortably sign the players that are a big part of their future AND still look at every option on the market. That’s not the worst place to be.
Longer Term: Locking in Their Core
When we look at this situation from a 2026-27 and beyond perspective, that’s the timeframe the Blue Jackets would be looking to lock up their core players. Specifically, Fantilli, Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson will be due for new contracts.
The extra cap space will ensure the Blue Jackets can sign these players. Had cap growth remained stagnant, it would have created significant questions for several teams. But an extra up to $25.5 million in three years is a huge deal that will help teams keep players they may have otherwise lost.
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The other noteworthy item longer term is what new contracts will look like. That’s because a higher salary cap will lead to higher cap hits. We have to consider the impact of cap percentage in this situation.
Think of it this way. At $88 million, a player who gets 5% of the cap has a cap hit of $4.4 million. In 2027-28, a player signed at 5% cap percentage would then get $5.675 million. That $4.4 million player will then only account for 3.88% of the cap come 2027-28.
We are going to start seeing some interesting contracts. Some players will get more than you would think. And then there’s what Connor McDavid might eventually do. Will he be the one to break $20 million on his next contract? A rapidly rising salary cap makes this possible.
The cost of business is going to go up. The Blue Jackets will need to be prepared for this to lock in their core players. They’re in a good position to do that. Just prepare yourself for some higher individual cap hits once these new deals are signed.
Final Thoughts
Overall, this salary cap increase will be good for the NHL. It shows the league is in a good place of growth. We haven’t even considered the new TV deals coming. That could mean more revenue.
We also need to consider the state of the Canadian dollar. There could be come concern for some Canadian markets as cap hits and salaries are considered in U.S. dollars.
There still a lot of unknown that needs to work itself out. At least we now know where the cap is going. It has the potential to lead to some very interesting decisions league wide on how that extra money is spent.
For the Blue Jackets, their story is only starting to be written. We’ll eventually see how much they will spend in the coming seasons. They are in as good a position as any when it comes to their immediate future.
The Blue Jackets are on the rise, have a good prospect pool and have ample cap space to work with. The salary cap increase will greatly benefit them in the years to come.