Can Connor McDavid Still Win The Calder?

There’s a question that gets asked still around the league and it wouldn’t be asked if the player they were asking about wasn’t such a phenomenal talent. The question at hand is whether or not Edmonton Oilers rookie Connor McDavid can win the Calder Memorial Trophy as NHL rookie of the year.

McDavid has been out since suffering a broken clavicle against the Philadelphia Flyers on November 3rd and as of today has missed 31 games for the Oilers. He is expected back after the 2015 All Star Game in Nashville and many are curious how he’ll respond once he’s back.

The Edmonton Oilers with all the players in their rich history have never been able to have a player win the Calder trophy. None of the previous three 1st overall picks before McDavid did, nor have Hall of Fame players like Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier, Paul Coffey, Jari Kurri or Grant Fuhr held the honour.

It’s one trophy that’s always alluded the Oilers and their rookies.

There is one correlation that is very telling about the eventual Calder winner, it’s almost always the leading scorer.

With very few exceptions to the rule it’s almost always the rookie leader for scoring that wins the Calder. The exceptions are outlined as Aaron Ekblad (2013-14), Tyler Myers (2009-10) and Steve Mason (2008-09). Both defenseman in Ekblad and Myers jumped seemlessly from junior to becoming top-pairing defenseman for their respective teams, a feat that is almost unheard of.

The other was Mason who stood on his head and did what very few rookie goalies do and jumped into a starting role and dominated. The rest of the field since the 2004-05 lockout have all been leading scorers.

Here’s the full list:

2014-15 – Aaron Ekblad (Florida) – Jumped from junior to NHL No.1 defenseman, 39 points in 81 games.

2013-14 – Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado) – Led rookies with 63 points.

2012-13 – Jonathan Huberdeau (Florida) – Tied with Nail Yakupov to led rookies with 31 points

2011-12 – Gabriel Landeskog (Colorado) – Tied with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to led rookies with 52 points.

2010-11 – Jeff Skinner (Carolina) – Led rookies with 63 points.

2009-10 – Tyler Myers (Buffalo) – Jumped from junior to NHL No.1 defenseman, 48 points.

2008-09 – Steve Mason (Columbus) – Junior to NHL No.1 goalie, 2.29 GAA 0.916 SV%.

2007-08 – Patrick Kane (Chicago) – Led rookies with 72 points.

2006-07 – Evgeni Malkin (Pittsburgh) – Led rookies with 85 points.

2005-06 – Alexander Ovechkin (Washington) – Led rookies with 106 points.

So what exactly does this say about McDavid’s chances?

Current NHL Rookie Scoring Race

Artemi Panarin, Chicago Blackhawks — **Artemi Panarin (Amy Irvin/The Hockey Writers)**

If there is one thing McDavid has going for him that’s keeping this conversation alive it’s that his PTS/GP average of 0.92 is the best among his rookie class. The only player that comes close to replicating the same PTS/GP average is Chicago forward Artemi Panarin at 0.87. The next closest players are Arizona forward Max Domi (0.74), Phildelphia defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere (0.70) and Detroit forward Dylan Larkin (0.69) then there’s a dip.

Back in October on paper everyone was projecting it would be a two-headed race between the two top picks from the 2015 NHL Draft in McDavid and Jack Eichel (Buffalo) but if there is anything we’ve learned in years past, the rookie scoring race can become a crap shoot at best. Panarin has been lights out this season mainly due to pencilling in with Patrick Kane who leads the entire NHL in scoring with 63 points in 45 games.

McDavid has already missed 31 games with a broken clavicle and is expected to be back after the All-Star Game in Nashville. He currently sits 27 points back of Panarin with the biggest obstacle being a mire difference of just a 0.05 PTS/GP average.

Here’s a look at the top rookie scorers to show what the field looks like in front of McDavid.

PLAYER	POS	TEAM	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	TOI	S	PTS/GP
Artemi Panarin	RW	CHI	45	15	24	39	5	14	18:56	108	0.87
Max Domi	LW	ARZ	42	13	18	31	1	19	16:14	81	0.74
Dylan Larkin	W	DET	42	14	15	29	22	22	16:49	115	0.69
Jack Eichel	C	BUF	43	13	14	27	-11	6	18:52	136	0.63
Anthony Duclair	RW	ARZ	41	12	12	24	6	20	14:15	46	0.59
Sam Reinhart	C	BUF	43	12	7	19	-2	6	16:21	87	0.44
Oscar Lindberg	LW	NYR	40	11	8	19	6	28	12:38	71	0.48
Colton Parayko	D	STL	44	6	11	17	15	20	19:06	97	0.39
Mattias Janmark	C	DAL	44	9	7	16	11	12	14:17	69	0.36
Shayne Gostisbehere	D	PHI	23	7	9	16	5	6	17:51	45	0.70
Robby Fabbri	C	STL	40	10	5	15	0	2	13:05	63	0.38
Nikolaj Ehlers	LW	WPG	43	7	8	15	-2	10	14:21	107	0.35
Sam Bennett	C	CGY	40	6	9	15	-3	13	15:03	63	0.38
Joonas Donskoi	LW	SJS	36	6	9	15	-1	8	13:46	49	0.42
Colin Miller	D	BOS	32	3	11	14	3	28	16:02	47	0.44
Jordan Martinook	LW	ARZ	41	4	9	13	-2	8	15:21	49	0.32
Connor McDavid	C	EDM	13	5	7	12	-4	6	18:00	24	0.92

Projected NHL Rookie Scoring Race

All-Star Game Snubs — **Max Domi. Photo: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sport**

Edmonton still has six games remaining before the All Star break in schedule which means that if McDavid returns for February 2nd against the Columbus Blue Jackets and stay healthy the rest of the way he should get 45 games in by seasons end. That’s almost half of a regular season missed and more importantly almost half of what Panarin and the rest of the rookie class will likely play, barring injury of course.

If you project the PTS/GP average of the class, McDavid maintaining the same pace he had before and a healthy season from the rest of the group, the Oilers rookie could still jump from 17th to 7th. Panarin would be on pace for 27 goals and 71 points to be the rookie scoring leader, Domi would be the runner-up with 60 points and Larkin would finish with 56 points.

The 2nd overall selection of the 2015 NHL Draft, Eichel would finish 4th in rookie scoring with 52 points. Then there’s Duclair (48) and Gostisbehere (45) just a shade ahead of McDavid who could finish with 17 goals and 41 points if he can stay healthy and pick up just where he left off.

Here’s a projection of what the Top 10 rookie scoring race would look like:

PLAYER	POS	TEAM	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	TOI	S	PTSPG
Artemi Panarin	LW	CHI	82	27	44	71	9	26	18:56	197	0.87
Max Domi	LW	ARZ	82	25	35	60	2	37	16:14	158	0.73
Dylan Larkin	LW	DET	81	27	29	56	42	42	16:49	222	0.69
Jack Eichel	C	BUF	82	25	27	52	-21	11	18:52	259	0.63
Anthony Duclair	RW	ARZ	81	24	24	48	12	40	14:15	91	0.59
Shayne Gostisbehere	D	PHI	65	20	25	45	14	17	17:51	127	0.70
Connor McDavid	C	EDM	45	17	24	41	-13	20	18:00	83	0.92
Oscar Lindberg	C	NYR	80	22	16	38	12	56	12:38	142	0.48
Sam Reinhart	RW	BUF	82	23	13	36	-4	11	16:21	166	0.44
Colin Miller	D	BOS	73	7	25	32	7	64	16:02	107	0.44

So Can McDavid Still Win The Calder?

Connor McDavid (Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports)

If you factor this whole theory and the common thread of the leading scorer primarily being a lock barring an outstanding performance by namely a defenseman or goaltender, McDavid is going to be hard pressed to win the rookie of the year honours. The honours will likely go to either one of Panarin or Domi as the two leading scorers right now.

Both are projected to finish one-two in scoring to end the season. There is no defenseman outside of Gostisbehere who has a shot at the Calder. Goaltending wise there are some decent goaltenders like John Gibson (Anaheim) and Mike Condon (Montreal) but unlike Mason before them, neither are going to be playing in 60+ games this season.

That means that McDavid can still find his way into consideration, but he’ll have to be on par with his previous PTS/GP or better to even get worthwhile consideration.

It’s too hard to win a trophy plain and simple when you’ve essentially missed half the year. It would underscore the great performances of the other young stars in this league who have stepped it up considerably.

Can it happen? Sure anything can happen.

How likely is it to really happen? Slim to none.

Until February here is some more McDavid to hold us all over…