Canadiens Face Lightning and Chance at Redemption Exiting Xmas Break

“Impressive” shouldn’t be the first word to come to mind when talking about the 2025-26 Montreal Canadiens. However, they have been impressively “resilient,” if that means anything. Case in point, three weeks ago, they missed consecutive opportunities to move back into first place in the Atlantic.

Related: Canadiens Keep Missing Opportunities to Climb up the Standings

The Canadiens had spent a large of the first quarter of the season atop the division, only to stumble significantly to the tune of five consecutive mid-November defeats. They then rebounded somewhat by going 5-2 as the calendar shifted to December, “somewhat” for the simple reason the two losses were of the embarrassing variety, 7-2 to the Colorado Avalanche and 5-2 to the Ottawa Senators.

For this piece’s purposes though, they had effectively gotten back on the straight and narrow only to run into the “non-playoff” St. Louis Blues and, well, “red hot” Tampa Bay Lightning wouldn’t be as accurate to say as “ice cold” Tampa Bay Lightning, who, despite finding themselves atop the Atlantic themselves, had been coming off four straight defeats and two straight shutouts.

Same Old Story for Canadiens

You know how the story goes at this point. Against the Blues, the Canadiens gave up two quick goals, including the go-ahead goal within 39 seconds of one another to start the second period. Disregarding a late Noah Dobson goal to make it close, the opposition never looked back en route to a 4-3 road victory. Regardless, two nights later, the Habs still could have pulled into a temporary division lead against the Lightning, leapfrogging them and the Detroit Red Wings (before the Boston Bruins would pull ahead by one point, coincidentally with a road win over the Blues).

As had been mentioned, the Lightning were especially vulnerable. In that game, they were missing several regulars to injury, including goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. Defenseman Victor Hedman actually exited early, leaving the Bolts extra-shorthanded. They still came away with a humiliating 6-1 win at the Bell Centre, prompting the Canadiens to make several roster changes.

For all intents and purposes, whatever buttons general manager Kent Hughes has pushed have worked. While the Canadiens have been far from lights-out, they have gone a decent 5-1-2 to stay in contention in the Atlantic, with prospect Jacob Fowler emerging as something of a hero in net (for now). From the Lightning’s perspective, things could be better. They’re simply a respectable 3-2-1 since the two teams’ last meeting, as they prepare to face off again, Sunday, this time in Tampa.

Canadiens Have Rare Repeat Opportunity

Circumstances are similar in that the Lightning will have played the night before (against the Panthers, in what will probably be an extremely physical affair), while the Canadiens will be fresher. The Bolts are also still banged up, despite Vasilevskiy having returned. For example, Hedman is now out until early February. Brandon Hagel is also reportedly unavailable after tragically sustaining another upper-body injury against the Florida Panthers a few weeks ago.

Andrei Vasilevskiy Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy – (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

While the Habs obviously have their own injuries, they have to find a way to carry on, which, to their credit, they have, just with very inconsistent effort levels and subsequent results. However, for them to not only find themselves higher in the standings than the Lightning right now, albeit by two points and one extra game played, and still within striking distance of first in the division speaks to that resilience.

Granted, it also speaks to the lack of elite competition in the Atlantic, but that’s not exactly something for which the Canadiens should be blamed. It’s something they shouldn’t feel bad about exploiting either. Whether the game against the Lightning has immediate first-place ramifications remains to be seen, as the current-first-place Wings (by two points, with one extra game played) face the Carolina Hurricanes tonight and Toronto Maple Leafs tomorrow.  

Crunch Time for Canadiens Exiting Christmas Break

Theoretically, the Canadiens can jump into first with a win over the Lightning, should the Wings lose both of their games in regulation (with points percentage being the first tie-breaker). However, the season is obviously a marathon instead of a sprint. It’s not critical for the Habs to move into first, but rather to simply focus on their own games, i.e., what they can control.

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For all their faults, the Canadiens are still playing .600 hockey, which is impressive at first glance, but really more so just necessary looking at how tight the division is. The Habs have a long way to go before they’ll have proven themselves as legitimate. Their last game, a critical 6-2 win over the Bruins before the Christmas break, was a significant step, but it means little if they fail to build on it. This is (yet) another opportunity, and, despite all appearances up to now, they are in short supply.

By the time Sunday rolls around, the Canadiens will face 20 games and 39 days to go before the Olympic break. Putting aside injuries, this is as rested as they’ll be in while. The tight schedule makes this specific period as much crunch time as any other. Falter and they’ll have a much harder time making up lost ground. There is/are no time and no chances, especially golden ones like this, to waste.