You can kind of understand what Montreal Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis was going for when he replaced Jakub Dobes in net with Sam Montembeault after he and the Habs got blown out 7-2 against the Colorado Avalanche last Saturday. However, even though it was easy to justify, the end result obviously left a lot to be desired, as Montembeault looked horrible the following game, as he and the team in front of him got embarrassed by losing 5-2 to the division-rival Ottawa Senators.
One way or another, this madness, which has seen the Canadiens consistently switch goalies from game to game, perhaps contributing to inconsistency on their part, must end. With Dobes having gotten back into the win column against the Winnipeg Jets the next game, this is a logical point at which to start.
Dobes a Stronger Goalie than Montembeault Currently
To be fair, Montembeault had a good start against the Vegas Golden Knights last Friday, getting the 4-1 win. However, the fact that the Canadiens were going to face the Avalanche the following afternoon necessitated a switch. With Dobes getting shelled the way that he did, albeit against a historically dominant team, St. Louis probably felt like Montembeault deserved the next start. The issue is, Dobes has been far stronger this season overall, now with a 9-3-2 record, 3.11 goals-against average and .891 save percentage this season. Montembeault is meanwhile 5-6-1 with a 3.61 GAA and .861 SV%. While each have been given 13 starts, only one has been stringing wins together.
“Stringing wins together” is admittedly a loose representation of what’s been going on, in all honesty, but through little fault of Dobes’ own. Through 26 games, excluding back-to-back games, the Canadiens have switched goalies 15 times this season, five times of which have come after wins, which reeks of what one would typically refer to as shooting one’s self in the foot. Four of those five times have come after a Dobes win, which, while unfair on the surface, makes sense, based on the mindset the Canadiens must have had regarding their goaltending situation heading into the season.
Montembeault is coming off a hugely successful 2024-25 during which he ranked among the league leaders in goals saved above expected (per MoneyPuck.com), made the 4 Nations Face-Off Canadian team and led the Canadiens to the playoffs for the first time since 2021, as their undisputed starter. It should come as no surprise that he would a) enter this season as their undisputed starter too and that b) St. Louis would give him the benefit of the doubt. However, if American Thanksgiving is enough of a sample size to ascertain which teams are likely to make/miss the playoffs, it’s large enough of a sample size to determine Montembeault isn’t the solution in net.
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Is Dobes? Maybe, maybe not. However, he’s shown significant potential at Age 24. His ceiling is a relative unknown. In Montembeault, you’re talking about a 29-year-old who, to his credit, impressively climbed the depth chart from third stringer when he was first claimed before the 2021-22 season, to backup, to platoon starter with Jake Allen, to undisputed No. 1.
Still, whereas Dobes’ development should be handled with care, it’s hard to see Montembeault climbing further to attain the ranks of the league’s upper echelon of goalies. It’s entirely possible, probable even, Canadiens fans have seen the best version of Montembeault already, and there’s nothing wrong with that. It’s just that they have higher hopes for top-prospect Jacob Fowler. And, if they have higher hopes for Fowler, they’re not going to be satisfied with the statistically average goaltending Montembeault has provided by and large.
Last season was the only one in which Montembeault, as the No. 1, gave up fewer than three goals per game (2.80), while in the others he got as much playing time as he did because of a lack of viable alternatives and lack of pressure to make the playoffs. Things have obviously changed, as expectations have heightened for 2025-26. With the margin of error as small as it is, St. Louis can’t afford to keep giving Montembeault chances when Dobes has, simply put, given the Canadiens more of a chance to win each night.
Splitting starts the rest of the way might have been a luxury the organization had a few seasons ago, when it didn’t really matter how low in the standings they finished. Now they need to not necessarily go with the hot hand, but put their trust in someone game in, game out, enabling them to get in a groove, which they effectively did with Montembeault last season. However, if the Montembeault of last season isn’t available, you need to take a different approach.
Canadiens Face Having to Alter Current Goaltending Course
If you’re the Canadiens, you’re not going to rush Fowler to the NHL this season. That would be a needless overcorrection that would put the development of potentially the team’s top goalie since Carey Price at risk, especially as, G-d forbid, a failure to make the playoffs would be seen more as an unfortunate, annoying setback rather than a disaster that would result in a roster and front-office shake-up.
You could try to make a trade for immediate help in net, but, if you’re general manager Kent Hughes, would you trade Dobes going back the other way (the Habs won’t keep three goalies), who’s actually putting up wins with some regularity? You’d probably try to trade Montembeault instead, but his value is at the point where other teams are unlikely to take serious notice due his current struggles and a lack of a long track record of success.
That leaves keeping the status quo intact, meaning continuing to go with some combination of Montembeault and Dobes, but clearly that’s not working as well on the ice as it is on paper. Adjustments need to be made, and by adjustments that means fewer adjustments from game to game overall.
No More Excuses for Montembeault
There have admittedly been instances where St. Louis has started Dobes multiple times in a row, hinting at him being given more of a chance. However, in each of those occasions, whenever St. Louis has turned back to Montembeault to give Dobes a rest, it’s almost like he’s looking for an excuse to go back to Montembeault permanently and return to what had been that status quo last season, when it no longer applies. Dobes is one year closer to his prime, Montembeault one year further away from his.
The latest set of games is a good example. Dobes started and won consecutive games against the Toronto Maple Leafs (Nov. 22) and Utah Mammoth (Nov. 26), only for Montembeault to understandably be given the Golden Knights last Friday afternoon, ahead of the Avalanche game, in which everyone knows what happened. However, if the reverse scenario had played out last season, St. Louis would probably have gone back to Montembeault after the 7-2 shellacking, because Montembeault was his No. 1 and bad games are inevitable from any goalie… emphasis on “was,” though. Maybe it’s time for St. Louis not to consider Montembeault his No. 1 anymore.
Considering they’re already splitting starts 50/50, that much should be crystal clear to everyone, St. Louis included. With Fowler in the mix, there already was going to come a time when Montembeault had to clear a path. That the time may be coming sooner than expected doesn’t have to be a bad thing. Holding on too long in sharp contrast would be exactly that, though.