On Friday and Saturday (Dec. 20 and 21) the Montreal Canadiens will battle the Detroit Red Wings in a home-and-home series, with the first leg at Little Caesars Arena and the second at the Bell Centre. While ambitions for what the rest of campaign may hold for Montreal are tempered given the results since October, this pair of games can nevertheless be viewed as a pertinent measuring stick for the Canadiens. Let’s discuss.
Montreal and Detroit have Similar Rankings and Culture
There is something bittersweet about this weekend’s two-game set between the Habs and the Wings. One thinks back to the back-to-back they engaged in to conclude the 2023-24 season. Both games were tightly-contested affairs, introduced the NHL world to blueliners Lane Hutson and Logan Mailloux, and required extra time. The Red Wings won both but were mathematically eliminated from the postseason due to results elsewhere in the Eastern Conference, whereas the Canadiens mostly suited up for pride.
It was another lost season for both franchises, each supported by fanbases that go back to the earliest days of the NHL. Win or lose, Wings and Habs fans stick to their club.
Related: Canadiens Need to Balance Size and Skill to Successfully Rebuild
And they are again, searching for avenues to change their fortunes. If anything, Detroit has taken a step back. They look a bit less playoff ready than what some pundits might have thought after the relative strides taken last season. Similarly, although Montreal wasn’t all that close to earning a playoff berth in 2023-24, performances during the final stretch suggested that sunnier days might be ahead, but that hasn’t proven to be true either.
Entering play Friday, Montreal is second-last in the Atlantic Division with 27 points and the Michigan-based ensemble is but three points ahead of them with 30. Only one club in the conference has amassed fewer points: the punching-bag Buffalo Sabres (26).
The point is that the Red Wings are not that much better than the Canadiens this season, if at all. If one squints (more on that in a moment), Detroit is slightly superior in some respects, but these are four points waving at Montreal, inviting the Les Habitants to claim them.
Canadiens and Red Wings are Statistically Comparable
To further emphasize the point about these age-old foes being comparable, consider their sputtering attacks.
Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis’ side scores 2.81 goals per game and Red Wings head coach Derek Lalonde’s 2.68, which puts the teams 24th and 26th in the league, respectively.
That’s the most obvious stat. Let’s dive deeper thanks to data from MoneyPuck.
Corsi:
- Detroit is 28th with 46.23%
- Montreal is 29th with 45.19%
Fenwick:
- Montreal is 29th with 45.75%
- Detroit is 31st with 44.86%
Expected goals (xG):
- Montreal is 30th with 56.47
- Detroit is 31st with 55.01
Expected Goals Differential:
- Detroit is 27th with -9.49
- Montreal is 30th with -15.24
Even in categories where one side appears to have the upper hand, the other has the numbers to counterpunch. The Red Wings have a solid power play this season, operating at 24.7%, which is good for eighth. Well, the Canadiens can retort with their 11th-best penalty kill (81.1%).
Montreal can cash in on the power play, though. That situation pays dividends 22.0% of the time (14th) and the Wings are second-worst at surviving those dreadful minutes when down a player (67.9%). But the script is flipped once more, given that Detroit has been sent to the sin bin for only 214 minutes thus far, third-least in the league. If Detroit plays an uncharacteristically undisciplined brand of hockey, cue the Patrik Laine and Cole Caufield attempts from the left faceoff circle.
Canadiens Should Integrate Alexandre Carrier, Give Cayden Primeau a Boost
It was a big week in Montreal insofar as general manager Kent Hughes made his first in-season deal of the campaign. Gone is defenceman Justin Barron to Nashville to wear that brilliant yellow Predators kit, and in comes defenseman Alexandre Carrier, a Quebec City native. He was drafted in 2015 and has spent his entire career with the Predators until now.
There was a dearth of right-handed defenders on the roster, and since things didn’t pan out as Hughes had hoped with Barron, the exchange made enough sense to pull the trigger.
There is no better time than this weekend to integrate Carrier into the club. He should slot in nicely alongside Kaiden Guhle or possibly alongside Arber Xhekaj. Montreal and its sports media love players from the area, so there are plenty of people already content with the acquisition. The most important thing is that the Canadiens have a mobile, more-lightweight defenceman who can carry the puck out of the zone.
We know Samuel Montembeault will tend the crease for the Habs on Friday. Normally clubs don’t play the same netminder on back-to-backs. Yes, Cayden Primeau has been woefully inadequate at times this season. That said, if there is a team against whom he should, theoretically, gain some confidence, it would be Detroit, for all the reasons listed in the previous section.
It still wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Montembeault gets the call again on Saturday, if only because the wheels have fallen off way too easily when Primeau was given shots this season. One way to look at it is an opportunity to give the American goalie another game or two to see if he can make anything at all of his season in Montreal, otherwise American Hockey League affiliate Laval Rocket’s phone will ring. It is striking to realize that during the recent five-game home stretch, which included matches against beatable opponents, Montembeault was in net every time.
There are only so many ways and occasions we can write something to the effect of “This is an interesting measuring stick for the Canadiens.” This is a special case, however. The Habs should be looking at the Wings and believe they can beat them. This is a legitimate “take-care-of-your-business” pair of games. If Montreal is going to show signs all is not lost, then they need to get the better of sides barely better than them.
