The New Jersey Devils need to improve their goaltending play. This is undisputed. Over the past three years, general manager Tom Fitzgerald has sought to improve the position through the draft, free agency, and trades and is seemingly back to square one. The acquisition of veteran Jake Allen from Montreal at the trade deadline gave the team a solid backup who brings the experience of winning the Stanley Cup and needed leadership to a locker room yearning for direction. With the backup slot solidified, Fitzgerald said he would spend his summer going “big game hunting” for a starting goaltender. Everyone from insiders to fans alike has bandied about the names of Juuse Saros, Jacob Markstrom, and Linus Ullmark as possible acquisitions. Still, when you zoom out and look at the full picture, the best goalie for the Devils’ future is none of those three, but rather a current Florida Panther, Anthony Stolarz.
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After spending the first six seasons of his career playing for the Philadelphia Flyers, Edmonton Oilers, and Anaheim Ducks, the 30-year-old New Jersey native headed south to Sunrise to form the back half of a tandem with veteran Sergei Bobrovsky. In 27 games with Florida, Stolarz posted counting stats and analytics that put him among the best goalies in the NHL. He posted a .925 save percentage (SV%) with 2.03 goals against average (GAA) and saved .801 goals above expected per 60 min; all three led the NHL for goalies with a minimum of 25 games played. He saved 20.1 goals above expected, which was good enough for third in the league behind Vezina Trophy finalists Connor Hellebuyck and Thatcher Demko. Over the last three seasons, he has posted the second-best high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) in the NHL at .848. The stats only tell part of the story; while there are concerns, the positives outweigh the negatives.
Stolarz Is a Career Backup
Stolarz is not a slam dunk. He has never started 30 games in a season. He has never played in a playoff game. One sure critique is that he often plays against lesser competition as a backup. These criticisms are accurate and should give Fitzgerald pause, but none are or should be deal breakers. In his 27 games this season, he played nine against teams that eventually made the playoffs, holding those teams to 15 goals. He surrendered four goals in road games at the Nashville Predators, New York Islanders, and Toronto Maple Leafs despite two games needing overtime. His most impressive outing of the season was a 45-save shutout in Buffalo.
Perhaps acquiring a player who has not proven to be a starter concerns Devils fans. Perhaps it reminds them of the acquisition of Vitek Vanecek from the Washington Capitals. The main difference is that Vanecek was never statistically better than the league average. Devils’ management felt that they saw something in Vanecek that went unrecognized in Washington and that they could get more out of him. It worked in the short term, but over time, Vanecek regressed and could not play consistently, let alone steal games. When the Devils traded for Vanecek, he had played 79 career games and posted career numbers of .908 SV% and 2.68 GAA, with six shutouts and a quality start percentage (QS%) of 48. Stolarz has played 108 games with a .915 SV%, 2.69 GAA, eight shutouts, and a QS% of 58. He has posted a QS% of 65 or above in three of the last four seasons. Vanecek has been above 50% once in his four seasons.
Can Stolarz Become Markstrom or Better?
Markstrom is ideal because he is finite; he has two years remaining on his contract, and with the stable of young goaltenders in the Devils’ system, he fits the team’s timeline perfectly. He would not be seeking the dreaded eight-year extension. Goaltending is evanescent and subject to so many variables that it is rare for the long-term contract to look good past year five. Fitzgerald doesn’t have to look far to see the pitfalls of the long extension. Ilya Sorokin has been dominant throughout the last few seasons. This year, he inked an eight-year extension, and when the playoffs came, he watched the playoffs from the bench. Stolarz makes sense over Markstrom because his best hockey is still in front of him, and he doesn’t cost any assets other than cap space.
The similarities are uncanny. Markstrom, the apple of the Devils’ eye for much of the season up through the trade deadline, stands 6-foot-6 like Stolarz, and their stats through seven seasons are comparable, if not in Stolarz’s favor. To that point in their careers, neither player had played in a playoff game. In 109 games, one more than Stolarz, Markstrom was 17 games under .500, winning seven fewer games than Stolarz, who is 12 games above .500. Markstrom’s counting stats were .906 SV% and a 2.91 GAA, neither as good as Stolarz’s. Markstrom conceded 32 more goals in one more game and gave up -24.5 goals above expected. Markstrom, like many goalies, improved as he aged and gained experience. If the same can be expected of Stolarz, he can likely eclipse Markstrom’s heights as his floor is already superior.
Saros and Ullmark Aren’t Worth the Cost and Risk
Besides Jacob Markstrom, the Devils have been most closely linked with Saros and Ullmark. Both have been stellar regular-season goaltenders, but neither has been a postseason stalwart despite the opportunity. Saros possesses a .313 winning percentage in the postseason, and Ullmark is slightly better with a .333 winning percentage but boasts a .890 SV% and 3.49 GAA. Both will cost considerable assets to acquire, and both are on expiring contracts and will be seeking long-term extensions. While their regular season success is undeniable, giving either a significant extension is fraught with major risk.
Saros is spectacular but has a lot of mileage and is undersized. He needs his exceptional athleticism to succeed. The Devils would have to believe that a player of a size without a true modern NHL comparable will be able to continue as an elite athlete injury-free into his late 30s. Ullmark brings a different type of risk. He possesses ideal size but has not yet demonstrated he can be a player who can carry his team through a regular season and playoffs. Last season, he was the first player, in a full 82-game season since 1990, to win a Vezina Trophy while playing in less than 50 games. He has only started 40 games once in his career and has thrived as part of a tandem with Jeremy Swayman, where he was not relied upon to be the lead goaltender, especially in the playoffs. His counting stats through his first seven seasons were almost identical to Stolarz’s at .913 SV% and 2.69 GAA. With neither goalie being a sure thing, is the risk worth the potential reward?
The Devils’ prospect pool and assets have been depleted. What was once a top-five pool has dropped in the rankings as their top prospects are now in the NHL. Further depleting that pool and also parting with a top-ten draft pick to acquire either of these goalies on expiring deals will hamper Fitzgerald’s ability to fix other areas of the team. He still needs to reshape and fortify the defense, improve the bottom six, and find the correct winger to complete his top six. With a player-friendly free-agent market expected, the best way to improve the team is likely through trades that will require assets.
A contract for Stolarz would likely cost the team in the neighborhood of $3.5 million for three seasons, far less than even the $6 million owed Markstrom or $5 million owed to Saros and Ullmark, which will certainly become somewhere between $8-10 million should they be extended. The Devils would be wise to use their major assets to obtain skaters, bringing far less risk and a more consistent reward than a goaltender. The choice to sign Stolarz will allow the Devils to keep a rainy day fund of prospects, picks, and cap space to counteract any injuries that arise as the season progresses.
Advanced stats courtesy of Moneypuck, Hockey Reference, & Natural Stat Trick
