Devils Should Be Cautious Extending Palmieri

One of the first moves of the New Jersey Devils’ rebuild in 2015 was acquiring right-winger Kyle Palmieri from the Anaheim Ducks. The team has had limited success since the trade, except for a playoff appearance in 2017-18. But that doesn’t mean the move didn’t pay off. In fact, it’s been quite the opposite. 

Palmieri scored 30 goals in 2015-16, his first season with the Devils, and has never finished with less than 24 since then. He’s averaged 29.8 goals per 82 games, as well as 56 points per 82 games, and has turned into one of the team’s best two-way forwards. He’s entering the final year of his contract, meaning general manager Tom Fitzgerald will have a tough decision on his hands. Palmieri is a core player on the current roster, but he’ll be 30 years old when a new deal kicks in. And that means Fitzgerald will have to be careful in striking a new pact. 

Palmieri’s Consistency

The lack of high-end shooting talent has been a problem for the Devils since the departure of Ilya Kovalchuk in 2013. Palmieri had shown signs of being a shooting threat in his first two seasons with the Ducks. But the minutes weren’t there for him on a stacked Ducks’ team that still had Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry at the top of their games. That’s when then-GM Ray Shero swooped in and acquired Palmieri as the first major transaction of his Devils’ tenure. 

Since then, Palmieri has been a model of consistency. He’s played on the Devils’ top line a majority of the five seasons he’s been in New Jersey. Even as the team struggled during the 2019-20 season, he finished with 25 goals in 65 games, a 31-goal pace over 82 games. He also averaged 1.80 points/60 minutes at five-on-five, which was the same as John Tavares and better than TJ Oshie and Johnny Gaudreau.

Over the last three seasons, Palmieri has averaged 1.63 points/60 at five-on-five, which is what you’d expect from a second-line winger. But he’s more than made up for it with his power-play production. His points/60 on the man advantage ranks 27th in the league (min. 500 minutes logged) and is ahead of Jack Eichel, Patrik Laine, and Mark Stone. 

But for as much as he contributes offensively, Palmieri shines on defense too. His even-strength defensive goals above replacement (GAR) of 5.5 ranks third on the Devils since 2017-18. And of players on the current roster, it’d rank first. He has an overall GAR of 32.5, ranked 48th among NHL forwards since 2017-18, a credit to his two-way play and power play production.

There’s a bit of an argument that Lee’s new deal was a slight overpayment. He’s a good player and a consistent 20-30 goal scorer, but he’s not better than Palmieri or Kreider. However, he is the Islanders’ captain, and that’s worth something. It likely played a bit of role in helping him hit the $7 million mark. If Palmieri becomes the Devils’ next captain, it might help him get a bit more money too. But $7 million annually should be where the buck stops for Devils’ management, and even that may be too much. 

The Price Needs to Be Right

It’d be hard to fault the Devils for extending Palmieri. He’s been their most consistent player for five seasons, and he’s not showing any signs of decline. That said, he’ll be 30 when an extension kicks in. He plays a physical style of hockey that could lend to him declining in his early 30s too. 

But there are a couple of counter-arguments. Palmieri is the Devils’ best shooting talent, and that makes him a perfect complement to Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier. If the Devils think they can be contenders in the next two to three years, then take the gamble and hope they can get productive years from him in the front half of a six to seven-year deal. The second argument is Palmieri’s shooting talent will help him age better than other players do in their 30s. So he could still be a productive player in the back half of an extension. 

Now, what could a new deal look like? Kreider offers the best comparable without a doubt. If the Devils sign Palmieri to a seven-year deal, he should get somewhere around $6.25 to $6.5 million annually. His current cap hit is $4.65 million, so an extension at that price won’t add much to the team’s salary cap, either. 

The bottom line is the Devils need to be careful with any extension for Palmieri. They’ll have $26 million in cap space this offseason, and $45 million in 2021-22 based on current projections. That’s a lot of money to throw around, but cap space is a difficult asset to get back once you’ve used it up. It’s why the margin of error for re-signing him is thin. Anything worth more than Kreider’s deal, and they’d likely be better off trading Palmieri. But for the right price, he’s a player worth keeping around to help the team, as well as Hughes and Hischier, make notable progress. 

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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey