The New Jersey Devils had one of the most potent offenses in the NHL in 2022-23, and that’s unlikely to change this coming season. They have a Core 4 with Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier and Timo Meier and have complementary pieces like Tyler Toffoli and Dawson Mercer to support them.
Dougie Hamilton should provide plenty of offense from the back end, even if he doesn’t hit 22 goals and 74 points again. But the Devils did lose one of their key puck-moving blueliners this offseason, that being Damon Severson, who signed an eight-year deal worth $6.25 million in a sign-and-trade with the Columbus Blue Jackets.
While Severson had always been an effective puck-moving defenseman with the Devils, he isn’t irreplaceable. And the Devils may have the perfect solution to replace Severson in Luke Hughes. Let’s look at how he could play the Severson role in 2023-24.
How the Devils Used Severson
What exactly was the Severson role this past season? After the Devils acquired John Marino last offseason, he moved into the top-four and played difficult defensive minutes against teams’ top lines. That relegated Severson to the third pair but also placed him in a spot to succeed using his best asset — his puck-moving ability.
The best way to see how the Devils deployed Severson is by heading to PuckIQ and looking at the level of competition he went up against. Head coach Lindy Ruff clearly didn’t do this by accident, as Severson played 34.1 percent of his minutes against the middle of the lineup and 41.7 percent against “gritensity,” aka bottom-of-the-roster players.
Severson fared quite well in those minutes, posting a 56.2 Corsi for percentage (CF%) against the middle of the lineup and 59.7 CF% against gritensity. He’s not your average third-pair defenseman by any stretch, and he feasted against opponents much worse than him.
But part of why the Devils saw so much success with Severson on the ice is Ruff did well to get him out there with Nico Hischier and, more specifically, Jack Hughes. Since Hughes was the Devils’ best offensive threat, it’s no surprise Severson spent more minutes with him. And the results were quite impressive.
In 410 minutes together during the regular season, the Devils posted a 64.87 expected goals percentage (xG%) with Severson and Hughes on the ice. They controlled 62.1 percent of the scoring chances and a whopping 68.36 percent of the high-danger opportunities, an outstanding number over a sample as big as 410 minutes.
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Severson didn’t log as many minutes with Hischier since Hischier was usually going up against opponents’ top lines. But they were still on the ice together for just over 291 minutes, posting a 59.67 xG%. Any way you slice it, Severson was a key part of the Devils’ top-six controlling play at five-on-five.
His loss could hurt, but that brings us back to Luke Hughes. Eventually, he will be a top-pair defenseman for the Devils. But to start him out in the NHL, Ruff using Hughes as his Severson could make the team’s offense even more dynamic this coming season.
Why Luke Hughes Fits as a Severson Replacement
Luke Hughes will eventually be too good to play a sheltered role as Severson did this past season. But when looking at the Devils’ blue line makeup for 2023-24, that may be the best way for him to find his footing in the NHL in what will be the longest season he’ll have played to date.
What stands out about the younger Hughes is his elite skating and puck-moving ability. We saw it briefly in the five NHL games he played between the playoffs and the regular season in 2022-23. The talent is undeniable, and he even moved up to the second pair alongside Marino in Game 5 against the Carolina Hurricanes in Round 2.
But the thing about playing alongside Marino is he will continue to be the Devils’ go-to shutdown defender in 2023-24. He did log some ice time with Jack Hughes (269 minutes) this past season, but it was the least between the Devils’ three right-handed shots — Hamilton, Severson and Marino.
If Marino continues to get the level of competition that he did a season ago, those aren’t minutes you want to give to Jack or Luke Hughes all the time. Jack will get his minutes with Hamilton because of Hamilton’s offensive abilities. But if the Devils’ third pair is Kevin Bahl and Colin Miller, it won’t have the same impact it did with Severson this past season.
It’s also worth noting how Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald spoke of Bahl after re-signing him to a new contract a couple of weeks ago:
If that’s how the Devils view Bahl moving forward, then there’s a good chance he could find himself alongside Marino to start 2023-24. And the fit makes sense. Is Bahl as good as Ryan Graves, who’s now with the Pittsburgh Penguins? Not yet, and he might not ever reach that level. But stylistically, he’s not far off from Graves since he’s more of a stay-at-home defender.
That would leave Luke Hughes to play on the third pair alongside Miller, who the Devils acquired from the Dallas Stars on July 1. Though Miller’s offensive game has declined over the last couple of seasons, he’s still solid defensively and does have some puck-moving ability. He’s been in the league for quite some time and will be a good veteran to pair with Luke Hughes.
A Luke Hughes and Miller pairing would let the Devils get the two of them out with Jack Hughes, allowing the two Hughes brothers to feast offensively. If Severson could post an xG% in the 60s alongside Jack Hughes, then there’s no reason to believe Luke can’t either.
It’s Easy to See the Fit for Luke Hughes
A big part of the Devils’ offense thriving in 2022-23 was due to Severson playing the role he did. They will need to find someone to replace those minutes, and Luke Hughes is the best fit until Šimon Nemec is ready for the NHL. When looking at the Devils’ blue line, it’s easy to see the fit for him in the Severson role:
- Jonas Siegenthaler – Hamilton
- Bahl – Marino
- L. Hughes – Miller
Siegenthaler and Hamilton remain together as they did for much of last season, while Bahl takes over for Graves. Luke Hughes will move up the Devils’ defense pairs in no time, but to start next season, it makes sense not to give the 19-year-old (he turns 20 in a month) too much on his plate. It’s the perfect role for him and the Devils, as it gives the team the potential to have an offense as dynamic as in 2022-23.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
