Ducks Should Re-sign Trouba or Carlson, But Not Both

The Anaheim Ducks have a decision to make on their blue line, and it will say a lot about the direction Pat Verbeek believes this team is ready to take.

Three veteran defensemen from this season’s roster are set to become unrestricted free agents on July 1 — Jacob Trouba, John Carlson, and captain Radko Gudas. The Ducks are unlikely to retain all three, and the financial reality of a team with young players approaching extension eligibility means correctly prioritizing matters enormously. The two most interesting names in that group are Trouba and Carlson, and the case for each is more nuanced than it appears on the surface.

Jacob Trouba

When the Ducks acquired Trouba from the New York Rangers just over a year ago, the optics were not great. He was coming off the worst stretch of his career, his defensive numbers had been declining for several seasons, and it was widely viewed as a salary dump by a Rangers team that had simply moved on. Anaheim looked like it was absorbing a problem rather than solving one.

A year later, the conversation has completely changed.

Trouba posted 10 goals and 35 points in 81 games this season, averaged nearly 23 minutes of ice time per night, led the team in blocked shots, and posted a 51.8 percent Corsi for at even strength, the second-best mark of his career and better than anything he produced in New York. He showed up in the playoffs, he protected his teammates, and he gave head coach Joel Quenneville exactly what a veteran third-pairing anchor is supposed to provide on a young roster learning how to win.

The problem is the contract discussion. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that the two sides have been negotiating on and off without getting close to a deal. Trouba and his camp are understandably trying to capitalize on a resurgent season, while Anaheim is likely questioning how much of this was a contract-year performance from a player entering his age-32 season who plays a physical style that tends to age poorly.

AFP Analytics projects Trouba landing a three-year deal worth around $9.25 million total on the open market. That feels low for what he just produced, and a deal closer to the four-year, $21 million extension Adam Larsson signed with the Seattle Kraken last year seems more realistic if he tests free agency. If the Ducks can land him below that number, they should do it. If the price climbs to $6 million or above annually, the risk on the back half of the deal becomes a real concern.

John Carlson

Carlson’s situation is different in almost every meaningful way. He arrived in Anaheim at the trade deadline from the Washington Capitals, where he spent 17 years, and the transition was not seamless. He recorded just one assist in the series versus the Vegas Golden Knights and finished the playoff run without making a significant impact.

What he did provide in his limited time with the Ducks was exactly what his reputation suggested he would — right-handed shot, puck-moving ability from the second pairing, and Stanley Cup experience in a locker room full of players who have never been past the second round. He recorded 20 points in 28 combined regular-season and playoff games, which is a reasonable rate for a 36-year-old defender in a depth role.

Carlson has said publicly that he is open to returning. He spoke genuinely about the team’s young talent and the excitement of being part of something building toward contention. But he also acknowledged that his family still has deep roots in the Washington area, where he spent nearly two decades, and that there are factors beyond hockey involved in the decision.

AFP Analytics projects a three-year deal with a $7.03 million cap hit for Carlson, which would be substantial for a player of his age on a team trying to manage cap flexibility heading into a period when Beckett Sennecke, Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and Jackson LaCombe will all need significant extensions. The Capitals have also been linked as a potential suitor, which means Anaheim could face competition if they wait too long.

The Verdict

The Ducks do not need both. And depending on what the price ends up being, they may be better served keeping neither and trusting Drew Helleson, Tristan Luneau, and incoming prospects to absorb the minutes.

If forced to choose one, Trouba is the more practical fit. He is younger, more physical, and has already proven he can function within Quenneville’s system at a high level for a full season. Carlson’s offensive upside from the blue line is genuine, but at 36, his effectiveness in a top-four role is more uncertain than Trouba’s.

The cap implications of either deal matter just as much as the hockey decision. Anaheim is approaching a window where the core of this roster needs to be paid, and locking in a significant amount of money on a veteran defenseman for three or more years could complicate things at exactly the wrong time.

Trouba at the right number makes sense. Carlson at the right number also makes sense. The keyword in both cases is “right,” and right now neither side has gotten there.