At the end of the 2023-24 season, the Toronto Maple Leafs will have five restricted free agents (RFAs) — three defensemen and two forwards. Having already predicted the next contracts for the defensemen, it’s time to move on to the forwards: Nick Robertson and Noah Gregor. Assuming neither is traded and both are extended, it’s important to think about what their next contracts will be, considering that there’s a huge cap crunch coming next season thanks to raises to both Auston Matthews and William Nylander.
Nick Robertson
In spite of whatever annual trade rumors circulate about young Maple Leafs’ players, 5-foot-9 Robertson has been a somewhat pleasant surprise this season for the Maple Leafs, having tallied eight goals and 17 points in 35 games — an 82-game pace of 40 points. He’s seen time in the AHL this year, but he’s proven to be too talented to stay there. He’s sporting a 49.55% expected goals share (xGF%), which, despite being below 50%, is good for eighth among regular Maple Leafs’ forwards. Despite his small frame, he’s a tenacious forechecker and doesn’t shy away from the physical part of the game. On the season, he’s tallied 23 hits, averaging about two hits every three games. He’s strong on the puck, which, too, is surprising considering his size — he’s only given the puck away 13 times this year. He’s also incredibly hard-working off-ice, working after practices with assistant coach Guy Boucher to improve every facet of his game (‘Why the Maple Leafs shouldn’t trade Nick Robertson,’ The Athletic, Jan. 31, 2024).
I would assume, given his play, Robertson would be handed a bridge deal if he doesn’t get traded. To predict Robertson’s contract, one has to look for players who are similar in production, draft pedigree, and playstyle and are coming off of their entry-level deals. A few names come to mind: Maxime Comtois, Nils Hoglander, and Tyler Bertuzzi. All four players were selected in the late second round of their respective drafts; none of them are particularly large or overly physical, and all four averaged about a half-point-per-game in their contract years coming off of their ELCs.
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When Comtois signed his two-year, $2.04 million AAV contract, he was responsible for taking up 2.50% of the Anaheim Ducks’ salary cap. Hoglander’s two-year contract worth $1.1 million per season took up 1.32% of the Vancouver Canucks’ cap, and Bertuzzi’s two-year, $1.4 million AAV contract took up 1.76% of the Detroit Red Wings’ cap. With that in mind, I would estimate that Robertson’s next contract comes in at two years and is worth about $1.53 million per season, which would take up 1.75% of the 2024-25 NHL salary cap.
Noah Gregor
Gregor, who was offered a professional tryout in September, was signed to a one-year, $775,000 contract a month later. It’s paid off somewhat well for the Maple Leafs, as Gregor has potted five goals and 11 points in 52 games this season in a fourth-line role. He’s admittedly been one of the weakest skaters in terms of underlying metrics, with his 41.31% xGF% better than only David Kampf. He’s physical, almost to a fault, averaging over two hits per game and oftentimes playing the body when it isn’t necessary and settling for worse play because of it. Still, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a contract offer come his way.
In terms of players who are similar in style, age, production, and size, Gregor’s next contract can be compared to the likes of Garnet Hathaway and Keegan Kolesar. All three have capped out in the mid-20s for points, and all three are physical to the point of sometimes being ineffective at producing any offense. Kolesar signed a three-year, $1.4 million AAV contract in 2022, which took up 1.7% of the Vegas Golden Knight’s cap in his age-25 season. Hathaway’s most recent deal, which he signed at 28 years old, was four years at $1.5 million annually and took up 1.84% of the Philadelphia Flyers’ cap. Physicality sells, even if it isn’t necessarily productive. With that in mind, and assuming he’s offered a contract, I would imagine Gregor is offered the same deal as Nick Robertson — two years at $1.53 million, taking up 1.75% of the cap.
Treliving Should Only Extend Robertson
I’m personally not really a fan of the overly physical style of hockey that Gregor plays, as I don’t really think it’s productive toward the Maple Leafs’ success, as indicated by his xGF% of just over 41%. With that in mind, I would hope that GM Brad Treliving opts not to extend Gregor and instead solely offers Robertson a contract. Robertson has been one of the Maple Leafs’ best depth forwards, and he’s still young and has a ton of upside if he hits his stride. Treliving should not only refrain from trading Robertson for a veteran depth-scoring piece, but he should be aggressive in showing him that he wants to keep him in the Maple Leafs’ system for years to come. There’s potential for a very important piece here.
