Maple Leafs Stumbled in Game 4 But Still Hold the Edge Versus Senators

What was Game 4 in the first-round series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators? Was it a missed opportunity, a crack in the armour, and a warning shot from Ottawa?

The Maple Leafs dropped their first postseason game Saturday night, falling 4–3 in overtime to the Senators. After winning eight straight games and goaltender Anthony Stolarz riding an 11-game personal win streak, something had to give eventually. Still, given the franchise’s playoff history, the loss raises a few fair concerns.

Yes, the Maple Leafs still lead the series 3–1, and history remains firmly on their side. Only 2% of NHL teams have returned from a 3–0 series deficit to win. The last team to do it? The 2014 Los Angeles Kings, who rallied to defeat the San Jose Sharks. Still, as the old cliché goes: It ain’t over until it’s over.

Where Things Went Wrong for the Maple Leafs

There were a few key turning points in Game 4, and they started almost immediately. At just 7:59 of the first period—before the puck was even dropped—Max Domi took a senseless penalty, catching Shane Pinto in the face with the top of his stick handle. It was unnecessary, undisciplined, and costly. That kind of penalty always seems the toughest to kill, and the Maple Leafs failed to do it.

Special teams were a significant strength for Toronto through the series’ first three games. That edge vanished Saturday. The Senators went 1-for-2 on the power play, killed off all four Maple Leafs man advantages, and even added a shorthanded goal for good measure. If you count Drake Batherson’s double-minor as two penalties, Ottawa went 5-for-5 while down a man. The Maple Leafs had no answer.

Maple Leafs Goalie Anthony Stolarz Finally Blinks

Through three games, Stolarz had been rock solid. But in Game 4, he looked human for the first time in the series. The shorthanded goal he allowed slipped through the pads. He seemed to have it, but it trickled across the line. On the game-winner, a floater from Jake Sanderson through traffic, it looked like Stolarz saw it but missed it with his glove. The shot’s off-speed nature might’ve fooled him.

Still, let’s not lose sight of the bigger picture: Stolarz has been excellent. He was due for a stumble, and even in a loss, he didn’t play poorly. Expect him to be back in the net for Game 5, with complete confidence from the coaching staff.

Will Berube Make a Lineup Change?

The extra day off before Tuesday’s Game 5 allows the Maple Leafs to reset and practice. It also gives head coach Berube time to consider lineup tweaks.

One name to watch is David Kämpf. With Max Pacioretty logging 12 hits but going minus-2 in the two games since replacing Nicholas Robertson, it may be time to reevaluate. Pacioretty doesn’t kill penalties, while Kämpf not only does, but also wins over 50% of his faceoffs—an asset in tight games. Berube could also reinsert Robertson to spark the offence, especially at home, where he can control the matchup more effectively.

Maple Leafs Still in Control—But Can’t Let the Opportunity Slip

The Maple Leafs have an opportunity Tuesday night to end this series and earn valuable rest before Round 2. With the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning locked in a physical war, closing things out early would spare Toronto unnecessary wear and tear.

But make no mistake: the Senators won’t go quietly. Their overtime win injected life back into their bench and their building. The Maple Leafs still have the advantage, but now they have to ensure the door doesn’t swing open further.

A win in Game 5 would not only move them forward but also silence much of the familiar anxiety that comes with playoff hockey in Toronto.

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]