We’ve reached the much-discussed US Thanksgiving benchmark in the NHL season, a point that is generally accepted as a valid indicator of which teams have set themselves up for success the rest of the way and which haven’t.
Now, this checkpoint hasn’t evoked much meaning for the Toronto Maple Leafs in recent years, as the regular season success hasn’t eluded the club in the way that success in the postseason has. Typically, Toronto settles comfortably into the playoff picture and isn’t fighting for its postseason life in March and April, with this season projecting to be no exception thus far. That said, no two seasons are completely alike.
For as much as recent seasons seem to have largely followed a specific pattern (cruise through the regular season with comfortable standing in the Atlantic Division, only to falter come playoff time), each one has brought its unique set of ebbs and flows. Let’s look back at where the Maple Leafs have stood at the American Thanksgiving marker of late and how things went the rest of the way:
2023-24 Maple Leafs Season
Record at American Thanksgiving: 10-5-2
Record at Season’s End: 46-26-10
The Maple Leafs were in a weird place at Thanksgiving 2023. They had gotten out to a perfectly respectable start, driven by Auston Matthews‘ 14 goals, and were firmly in the playoff mix. However, they were also already nine points back of the 14-1-3 Boston Bruins, all but eliminating them from contention for a division title (which the Florida Panthers ultimately won).
Matthews’ stellar start, coupled with a perfectly solid record, served to deflect from other issues the club was facing. The free agent quartet of Tyler Bertuzzi, Max Domi, John Klingberg and Ryan Reaves had yet to make a mark in what was GM Brad Treliving’s first year in Toronto. While Bertuzzi, Domi and, to a lesser extent, Reaves would improve, Klingberg proved to be a $4.1 million flop. Furthermore, Ilya Samsonov couldn’t repeat his 2022-23 form and the blue line was inconsistent.
All that contributed to a season that ultimately ended in disappointment. Despite Matthews’ 69 goals and a regular season that yielded 102 points, the Maple Leafs finished third in the Atlantic behind the eventual Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers and the Bruins. As such, they missed the opportunity to secure home-ice advantage and suffered the familiar fate of falling to Boston in Round 1.
2022-23 Maple Leafs Season
Record at American Thanksgiving: 11-5-5
Record at Season’s End: 50-21-11
Although they didn’t know it at the time, the Maple Leafs were about to hit their stride as the Thanksgiving holiday early on in the 2022-23 season. Their solid 11-5-5 record put them squarely in the No. 2 spot in the Atlantic, but a 2-1 win on the eve of the holiday ultimately served as their first of five straight wins, ushering in a stretch when they won nine of 10 games (the only loss being a 4-3 overtime defeat in Tampa Bay).
That run helped set the stage for what was one of the most successful seasons—by Maple Leafs’ standards, anyway—in recent franchise history. Samsonov carried his strong early play throughout the season, while the team notched its second-consecutive 50-win campaign and finished with 111 points, their second-highest total of all-time.
By clinching a second-place finish in the division, Toronto set up a postseason showdown with the Tampa Bay Lightning, breaking through to finally advance past the first round with a 4-2 series win. Celebrations wouldn’t last long, however, as they were waylaid by the emerging Panthers in five games despite finishing 19 points ahead in the regular season and holding home-ice advantage.
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2021-22 Maple Leafs Season
Record at American Thanksgiving: 14-6-1
Record at Season’s End: 54-21-7
If this era of Maple Leafs hockey doesn’t yield the level of success that we all crave, you can look back on the 2021-22 season as one of the foremost missed opportunities. In the first full 82-game season after the pandemic, the club shook off an early four-game losing skid by winning the next five straight games, one of five win streaks of five or more games they had.
After heading into the holidays with a 14-6-1 record, they reached franchise highs in both wins (54) and points (115) by season’s end. Jack Campbell served as the precursor to Anthony Stolarz, transforming from a career backup into a critical asset between the pipes. Meanwhile, Matthews hit the 60-goal mark for the first time and Michael Bunting became a fan favourite by filling the void left behind by an Edmonton-bound Zach Hyman.
Sadly, none of that mattered come playoff time. Facing a familiar foe in the Lightning, the Maple Leafs blew an opportunity to eliminate their division rivals in Game 6 by losing in overtime and then dropped an agonizing 2-1 Game 7 decision on home ice. While they got a measure of revenge one year later, it was, nevertheless, a painful end to what should have been celebrated as a successful season.
Currently at 13-7-2, the Maple Leafs are in an ever-familiar comfortable position within the Atlantic. One key difference, however, is that they are right in the thick of the battle for the No. 1 seed in the division (for the time being, anyway). If they can challenge for the top spot the rest of the way, it would represent a notable departure from the trends of recent seasons that, well, haven’t worked out great.
There’s still plenty of season to go but, playoff-related cynicism aside, the Maple Leafs have established another comfortable standing at the US Thanksgiving benchmark, all the while withstanding a litany of injuries and, at times, looking like a new team under Craig Berube. In late November, that’s all you can ask for.
