The 2024-25 NHL season is nearly upon us, and with that comes change. While playoff teams might not look too much different than a season ago, there are always a few teams that take a step back and some who make the jump forward. Today, we’ll look at five teams who could regress in 2024-25, with teams who may rebound to follow early next week.
Vancouver Canucks
2023-24 season: 50-23-9, 109 points, 1st in Pacific
Before Canucks fans get in a tizzy, let me be clear: I still think this is a playoff team. I just wouldn’t bank on them finishing first in the Pacific Division because how they made their way to first place a season ago wasn’t entirely sustainable.
The Canucks rode some unsustainable percentages to winning the Pacific, finishing with a 10.6 shooting percentage and .922 save percentage at five-on-five. The former ranked first in the NHL and generally speaking, a 10.6 shooting percentage at five-on-five isn’t sustainable from year to year. The .922 SV%, while high, ranked sixth, and that’s probably something that can come close to repeatable if Thatcher Demko is healthy.
Related: Pacific Division Still Looks Top-Heavy Heading Into 2024-25
A few Canucks players also had career years, specifically shooting-wise. Nils Hoglander and Dakota Joshua finished with shooting percentages of 20 percent or higher; in Joshua’s case, it was 21.4 percent. J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser were just under 20 percent at 19.1 and 19.6 percent, respectively. Boeser is a great player, but he’s a 13.8 percent shooter for his career, while Miller is a 14.9 percent shooter. There’s likely going to be some regression for these two players.
Still, I like this Canucks team. General manager Patrik Allvin had a quality offseason and made some solid additions, but I would not bank on them being a 109-point team; their over/under at Draft Kings is 99.5. They ranked in the top 10 in expected goals share (xG%) at five-on-five last season, so their process was solid despite the crazy shooting percentages. Even with regression probably on the way, they should be a top-four team in the Pacific.
Boston Bruins
2023-24 season: 47-20-15, 109 points, 2nd in Atlantic
Many have been predicting the Bruins’ demise for the last couple of offseasons, and while I won’t go that far, it wouldn’t shock me if they take a step back. Right off the bat, 15 overtime losses raise an eyebrow. The loser point inflated their place in the standings a bit, and their 36 regulation wins were among the lowest for qualified playoff teams from each conference last season.
This Bruins roster doesn’t look bad on paper, but they did lose a key piece in trading goaltender Linus Ullmark to the Ottawa Senators. Jeremy Swayman and Ullmark were among the NHL’s best netminding tandems, if not the best.
Joonas Korpisalo was part of the return for Ullmark, but he was one of the worst goalies in the NHL a season ago. I’d bet on him bouncing back to an extent in a Bruins system that seems to support goalies well, but I’m not sure what that looks like. It probably won’t look like Ullmark, though, who posted a .924 SV% in his three seasons with the Bruins.
The Bruins were also just a so-so five-on-five team a season ago, finishing with an xG% at an even 50 percent. Will Elias Lindholm help boost that and give them the first-line center they lacked without Patrice Bergeron in 2023-24? His results over the last two seasons would suggest no, but playing alongside David Pastrnak might help him bounce back, too.
Like the Canucks, the Bruins’ O/U for this season is 99.5. I still think they finish in the top four of the Atlantic and qualify for the postseason, but their playoff positioning could be a bit more precarious than it has been recently.
Winnipeg Jets
2023-24 season: 52-24-6, 110 points, 2nd in Central
The Winnipeg Jets may be the team most primed for regression this season, and it mostly has to do with players who departed this offseason. Out are Tyler Toffoli, Nate Schmidt, Brenden Dillon, Sean Monahan, and Laurent Brossoit, and in was just Kaapo Kähkönen to replace Brossoit in between the pipes.
Kähkönen played well for a terrible San Jose Sharks team a season ago and was even better in a small sample for the New Jersey Devils after the trade deadline. He should be a quality replacement for Brossoit, but it’s hard to argue this team is better than a season ago. The Athletic even had them as the least-improved team of the 2024 offseason (From ‘Which NHL teams have improved the most this offseason? Rating all 32 teams’ – The Athletic, 7/10/2024).
Connor Hellebuyck being an elite goalie gives the Jets a chance to exceed expectations, but it would not shock me if they take a big step back this season. With Vladislav Namestnikov projected as their second-line center and a much weaker blue line, their roster doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. The Jets’ O/U is 96.5, so they could be in a fight for a playoff berth since the Nashville Predators and Utah HC have improved their rosters this summer.
Philadelphia Flyers
2023-24 season: 38-33-11, 87 points, 6th in Metro
Though the Flyers missed the playoffs a season ago, they were in the chase until the very end. The reason they didn’t qualify is their team SV% plummeted for the last half of the season. The Flyers had a team SV% of .878 at five-on-five from Jan. 1 onward, the worst team SV% in the NHL.
That’s arguably their most pressing concern heading into the new season, as Sam Ersson and Ilya Fedotov will make up their tandem. Ersson has some NHL experience, having played 63 NHL games, 51 of which came last season. His play began to drop off as his workload increased in 2023-24, while Fedotov spent his entire career in the KHL until the very end of last season.
As the last final half of 2023-24 showed, the Flyers can still put up decent five-on-five results — they had a 52.9 xG% — but it won’t matter if the goaltending isn’t there.
It’s also worth noting that aside from signing Matvei Michkov to his entry-level contract, the Flyers made no notable additions this offseason. Perhaps GM Danny Briere knows the team overachieved a season ago and is primed to take a step back, so he’s willing to take a mulligan on this season and add another blue-chip prospect through the 2025 draft. Their O/U of 85.5 is similar to where they finished a season ago, but it wouldn’t shock me if they end up somewhere in the 70s because goaltending doesn’t hold up.
New York Rangers
2023-24 season: 55-23-4, 114 points, 1st in Metro, Presidents’ Trophy Winners
Repeating as Presidents’ Trophy champions alone makes the Rangers a potential regression candidate, but it goes beyond that. It’s probably crazy to say Artemi Panarin might be due to regress, but he had a career year in 2023-24, totaling 120 points and 49 goals in 82 games — both career-highs.
The difference for Panarin is that he became a high-volume shooter, totaling 304 shots on goal a season ago. There might be an extent to which his career year is sustainable if he continues the high-volume shooting, but I’d still be surprised if he totaled 120 points and 49 goals again. Still, he’s probably good for 30-35 goals and 90-plus points. That’s going to drive some positive results for the Rangers.
However, Panarin is not the only regression candidate for the Rangers. Vincent Trocheck also had a career year, finishing with 25 goals and 77 points in 82 games, both career-highs as well. Trocheck did total 64 points in his first season with the Rangers in 2022-23, so regression might not look like much for him, either.
Still, it’s hard to repeat a 55-win and 114-point season. The Metropolitan Division is not looking too hot heading into 2024-25, so the Rangers should still comfortably be a playoff team. I’d even peg them as favorites to win the Metro; their O/U of 100.5 ties the Carolina Hurricanes and Devils as the highest in the division. They just probably won’t win 55 games and collect 114 points in the standings, but they should still be a legitimate threat in the East.
Of course, these teams regressing are far from guarantees. But there are signs that their 2024-25 seasons may not be as fruitful as 2023-24. That doesn’t mean they won’t be playoff teams, but there could be steps back and more adversity during the regular season than they dealt with a year ago.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick
