The Edmonton Oilers are the hottest team in hockey. They’re on a three-game winning streak, have won eight of their last nine games, and are 11-2-0 over the last five weeks.
So, considering how well things are going for the Oilers right now, it would seem fastidious to find something to nitpick. But there’s one alarming stat that just can’t be ignored.
With 459 hits through 39 games, Edmonton is on pace for its fewest hits in an 82-game season since the NHL started tracking hits in 2005-06. In fact, at their current rate, the Oilers wouldn’t even come close to matching their total of 1,420 hits in the 56-game 2020-21 season.
Oilers Rank Last in NHL for Hits
Edmonton is averaging just 13.41 hits per 60 minutes this season, the fewest in the entire NHL. That’s more than nine less than the 22.62 hits per 60 minutes that the Oilers averaged in 2023-24, an absolutely staggering drop-off.
Personnel change is partially to blame. Of the eight players with the most hits on the Oilers in 2023-24, four are no longer with the team (Cody Ceci, Vincent Desharnais, Warren Foegele and Dylan Holloway) while the leader (Evander Kane) has been on long-term injured reserve since the start of this season. Kane averaged 11.61 hits per 60 minutes in 2023-24, which isn’t that far off what the entire team is averaging in 2024-25.
Collectively, the new additions to Edmonton’s lineup this season don’t hit nearly as much as the players they replaced. Vasily Podkolzin, who was acquired in an offseason trade with the Vancouver Canucks, leads the Oilers with 76 hits this season, but free-agent signees Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner have combined for 26 hits between them.
Meanwhile, every returning Oiler has seen a decline in their hit output from last season to this season, and in many cases, the reduction has been huge. Adam Henrique is down from 7.35 hits per 60 minutes to 2.55; Mattias Ekholm is down from 4.90 to 1.86; Connor McDavid is down from 4.36 to 1.69; Mattias Janmark is down from 3.90 to 1.63; Brett Kulak is down from 3.66 to 1.16.
The obvious question – why is everyone hitting less? – has no clear answer. One theory revolves around how often the Oilers have the puck, and that’s a fair argument to make. Except, compared to last season, the Oilers are actually spending less time in the offensive zone (43.5% to 44.5%) and more time in the defensive zone (39.0% to 38.0%).
Oilers Winning without Much Hitting
There have only been 39 times this NHL season that a team has recorded less than 10 hits in one game, and the Oilers are responsible for nine of them.
The thing is, Edmonton has a record of 7-2-0 in those nine games. So, maybe the better question is, how much does it matter that the Oilers are not hitting?
After all, there are different ways to skin a cat, and even if the Oilers aren’t playing a physical game, that doesn’t mean they’re not playing an effective game. On Dec. 12, Edmonton went into Xcel Energy Center to face the Minnesota Wild, who at the time were tied for the most points in the NHL, and crushed the home team, 7-1, while recording only eight hits.
Champs Aren’t Always Heavy Hitters
Looking at recent Stanley Cup champions, the teams run the gamut in terms of physicality. The Florida Panthers, who beat Edmonton in seven games to capture the NHL’s championship last June, led the league in hits for the 2023-24 season. But the two prior champs, the Vegas Golden Knights of 2022-23 and Colorado Avalanche of 2021-22, ranked 14th and 23rd, respectively, during the regular season. When the Tampa Bay Lightning won back-to-back Cups in 2020 and 2021, they ranked seventh and 19th, respectively, for hits during the regular season.
Related: Oilers & Panthers Are Still the Teams to Beat in the NHL
It’s also true that games get a lot more physical during the postseason. During the 2023-24 NHL regular season, only five of 32 teams averaged more than 25 hits per 60 minutes. During the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs, only one of 16 teams averaged less than 25 hits per 60 minutes.
Edmonton’s physicality, or lack thereof, will be a fascinating dynamic to watch as the Oilers continue their quest to end the franchise’s 35-year championship drought. The Oilers are back in action today (Dec. 28) against the Los Angeles Kings at Crypto.com Arena.
