Marner Betting Buzz Doesn’t Include Oilers: Why That Tracks

What will happen with Mitch Marner and where the winger will land on July 1 feels like all anyone not breaking down the NHL playoffs wants to talk about. Marner’s future is a big storyline, not just in Toronto, but among analysts and sportsbooks who have started placing odds on where the Toronto Maple Leafs forward will land once he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

According to Coolbet Canada, the Leafs still have solid odds to retain Marner at +500, with other teams such as the Chicago Blackhawks, Utah Mammoth, Pittsburgh Penguins, and Philadelphia Flyers high on the list of potential favorites. Nowhere near the top — they didn’t even make the list of 16 teams — were the Edmonton Oilers.

It’s interesting, if only because there was talk around the time Connor McDavid and Mitch Marner played at the Four Nations Face-Off tournament that these two might have some chemistry.

Why Are the Oilers Not in the Conversation?

The Oilers have been looking for a top-line winger to play with McDavid for years. As such, pursuing a player like Marner seems logical. While his playoff performance has left much to be desired, another productive regular season means teams will be lining up to make a bid this offseason. The Oilers are unlikely to be among them.

The most significant obstacle is Edmonton’s salary cap situation. Already up against the cap, the team has several high-dollar contracts that require attention over the next two summers. McDavid’s next deal could be worth $16-$18 million per season. The Oilers also have to decide how they’ll approach an extension with pending restricted free agent Evan Bouchard. With Leon Draisaitl already making $14 million, Darnell Nurse making $9.5 million, and several players locked into mid-range contracts between $5-$6 million, there is only so much space to go around. Adding another $13 million winger makes little sense, even as the salary cap goes up.

The Oilers Simply Don’t Need Marner

If there is one thing this season, especially the playoffs, has proven, it’s that the Oilers are a deep team with players willing to serve a variety of roles. Edmonton has speed, physicality, scoring punch, and 200-foot players on all four lines. That said, keeping a solid blue line will require attention, and maintaining reliable goaltending depth remains a priority.

Edmonton’s offense is not the problem. With elite scorers like McDavid, Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Zach Hyman already in the mix, the need for another high-end forward isn’t as urgent as it might be for other teams.

Look no further than how Game 4 of the series is playing out with Dallas. Connor Brown has gone down with an injury, so the Oilers are calling upon Viktor Arvidsson. If Arvidsson struggles, there is Jeff Skinner. There are also Max Jones, Derek Ryan, and others, all waiting for an opportunity to play.

Marner is undoubtedly a game-changing player, but this is a deep roster that has players ready to contribute on both offense and defense. These playoffs have proven that depth is more critical than having three or four high-priced elite scorers. How do we know? Well, the Oilers were in on Mikko Rantanen at the trade deadline. It didn’t pan out, but no one is still talking about Edmonton missing out there.

Marner Avoiding Canadian Teams?

Marner would likely love to be on McDavid’s win. Still, according to NHL insiders, Marner may avoid Canadian teams this summer and is likely leaning toward signing with a U.S.-based team, particularly in a market with no state income tax, such as Florida, Nevada, or Texas. Playing in Edmonton brings with it a bright spotlight, and it sounds like Marner has been there and done that.

Edmonton is a smaller but passionate market, characterized by high taxes and high pressure.

There’s no question that Mitch Marner will have his pick of suitors when he hits the open market next summer. But, don’t expect there to be much chatter when it comes to the Oilers and Marner being a fit. As a Stanley Cup contender, the fit doesn’t make sense from a financial or strategic perspective.

That’s why you won’t see the Oilers as a favorite when it comes to bets that give good odds on where Marner winds up.