The Ottawa Senators at the time of writing have racked up just 12 points over the 13 games they’ve played to this point in the 2024-25 season. That translates to a points percentage (PTS%) of .462 – good enough for the second last spot in the ultra-competitive Atlantic Division.
That’s not a record that comes anywhere close to earning them a berth in the playoffs next spring. The Senators are unlikely to be one of the three teams in the division at the end of the season who automatically punch their ticket to the playoffs. Even so, their fans hope they have a shot at securing a playoff wild card spot. Yet that won’t be easy, since historically, wild card teams need to have a PTS% of around .600.
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So now is the time for the Senators’ faithful to ask themselves what kind of performance they need to see from their team during the rest of November to put them on track to see playoff action next spring in Canadian Tire Centre.
NHL Standings at U.S. Thanksgiving Predict Playoff Contenders
Where NHL teams stand at the end of November foreshadows their success, or lack thereof, for the entire season. Of the 240 teams to find themselves in a playoff spot at U.S. Thanksgiving since the 2005-06 season*, 184 have gone on to make the post-season the following spring. That’s a 76.7 percent success rate. This statistic is why fans place laser-like focus on where their teams stand when Americans start deep frying turkey and Mars Bars.
(*This statistic does not include the 2019-20 or 2020-21 seasons, due to the COVID-19 pandemic.)
By the time Americans were giving thanks last season, the Senators had played themselves out of playoff contention winning just eight of the 17 games they played in October and November for a disappointing .471 PTS%.
From what the Senators have delivered in October and into early November, could this season be different?
What Ottawa Senators Must Do in November to Win 2025 Wild Card Spot
At least in part, the answer lies in how tough the Senators’ schedule is from Nov. 8 until the end of the month.
The Senators have 10 games remaining in November. Those games are evenly split between home and away. Two of the games they play on the road are part of an easy three-game swing through the Western Conference. For the most part, they’ll play a game every other day.
Even so, Ottawa’s schedule until the end of the month will be keeping their president of hockey operations and general manager (GM) Steve Staios up at night given that seven of the teams his squad will face were playoff teams in 2024. Six of them are on a list of teams that Las Vegas odds-makers said at the start of the season would make the 2025 Playoffs. Listed are the Carolina Hurricanes, Vegas Golden Knights, Vancouver Canucks, Toronto Maple Leafs, Edmonton Oilers and the Los Angeles Kings.
Here’s my take on what the Senators face in the rest of November:
| Senators’ Opponents from Nov. 8 – 30 | Probability of a Senators Win |
| Boston Bruins, Philadelphia Flyers, San Jose Sharks | High |
| Oilers | 50/50 |
| Maple Leafs, Hurricanes, Golden Knights, Canucks, Calgary Flames, Kings | Low |
If this chart is right, then in the remainder of November, the Senators have three games in the proverbial bag and one that they have an even shot at winning. That’s four games that should be in Ottawa’s win column. So, to hit their .600 PTS% target, they’ll need to steal three or four games from a group of teams that includes Toronto, Carolina, Vegas, Vancouver, Calgary and Los Angeles. That will be no easy task.
Can the Ottawa Senators Be a .600 Hockey Club?
There’s no question that to win a wild card spot in the playoffs next spring the Senators need to notch a PTS% of at least .600. It’s not often that teams do so with much less. That will be a tall order for the Senators, who in the last five full seasons averaged a PTS% of just .442.
Many pundits make the point that the Senators are an improved team this season with seemingly all the pieces in place to vie for a wild card spot. Yet their record suggests otherwise, standing as they do just two points ahead of the last place Montreal Canadiens.
Yet perhaps what is most concerning is that the Senators are losing games that they simply can’t. They include an embarrassing loss to the lowly Habs in their second game of the season, and most recently, two in a row to the Buffalo Sabres and the New York Islanders.
November Is Make or Break for Ottawa Senators Playoff Hopes in 2025
To this point in the season, the Senators haven’t shown themselves to be a playoff contender. Whether they are or not could reveal itself as November unfolds, just as it has in losing seasons past.
