As hockey season approaches, the Philadelphia Flyers’ general expectations for 2024-25 are starting to set in. Playing into that, Anna Dua of NHL.com posted her fantasy projections for the Flyers, which are fun to analyze. Which players will go over the point prediction she gave them, and which ones will go under?
Travis Konecny: 75 (Under)
This seems just a tad bit generous for Travis Konecny, due to the fact that he notched a career-high of 68 points last season in 76 contests. With his pace from 2023-24, he’d have to average 20:17 of ice time over a full 82-game slate to reach 75 points—he’ll have to boost his play from what was an already impressive showing even if he’s healthy.
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Konecny looked poised to exceed 75 points in each of his last two campaigns, to be fair, but poor health and on-ice inconsistencies were his undoing. Anywhere from 65-70 points is a more realistic projection, but he’s probably looking at a similar total ice time as last season (1,508 minutes) regardless because of the addition of Matvei Michkov. This is a safe “under” pick.
Owen Tippett: 60 (Over)
As for Owen Tippett, a 60-point projection seems rather low. He had 53 in 78 contests last season, which is a bit far off, but that number deserves some context. During the second half of the Flyers’ campaign (Jan. 12 through April 16), he had 29 points in 37 games—that’s a 64-point pace over a full season. Head coach John Tortorella increased the 25-year-old’s ice time by nearly two minutes from the first half to the second, so an overall usage boost might also be in order.
This output increase has to do with Tippett’s own improvements but also playing with more talented linemates. For example, he played with Konecny for under 100 minutes in the first half of the season (they were both healthy the entire time) and over 200 minutes in the second half (despite both suffering injuries). With Michkov in the lineup, thus spreading the talent wealth, Tippett could reasonably hit the 65-point mark in 2024-25.
Matvei Michkov: 59 (Over)
Since we only have Michkov’s non-NHL play to build off of, an exact projection can be tough. But I’m of the belief that a hard-nosed coach like Tortorella will lean on a player who will give him the spark to succeed, even if there are defensive weaknesses—that’s how he operates with Konecny and Tippett, at least.
Because of this, Michkov should immediately get top-six minutes and help transform the Flyers’ offensive identity. He has only gotten better with time despite all of his mental and physical demons. Already a top-tier player in the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) as a teenager, he should bring a new element to Philadelphia. While 59 points is a high amount, he could exceed it by a lot if health permits it. It’s a gamble, but I’ll take the “over”.
Joel Farabee: 56 (Under)
In 82 games last season, Joel Farabee scored a career-best 50 points. It’s not the worst bet to say the 24-year-old could improve on that mark, but there should be some skepticism.
The reason to doubt Farabee doesn’t have to do with him as a player much at all, but rather, his usage. He likely won’t play much with Konecny, Tippett, or Michkov, should have limited power-play ice time, and he probably won’t play all that much, to begin with. His three most common forward linemates in 2023-24 were Scott Laughton, Bobby Brink, and Cam Atkinson—expect him to play with names like these once again.
Farabee could shatter 56 points if he were given more opportunities, but Tortorella hasn’t shown that he trusts the young winger enough. Until Farabee’s opportunities improve, the under is safe.
Travis Sanheim: 47 (Under)
Seeing as he scored a career-high 44 points with the NHL’s 15th-highest total ice time among skaters (1,928 minutes), a boost in production seems unlikely for 28-year-old Travis Sanheim. The addition of fellow defenseman Jamie Drysdale back in January led to Sanheim’s average ice time on the man advantage being halved—it’s an uphill battle for him.
Much like Farabee, the main issue here is going to be Sanheim’s usage. He scored a lot because he was depended on by Tortorella, but we can expect that to decline—he went from 26:01 of average ice time to under 23 minutes following Dec. 6. Even hitting 40 points again will be a challenge, so adding another seven to that could be unattainable.
Tyson Foerster: 40 (Over)
This is a line that has the potential to be blown out of the water. In his rookie campaign, 22-year-old Tyson Foerster scored 33 points in 77 games—we should expect an output increase now that he has had time to adjust to NHL hockey and prove he is top-six caliber.
Foerster’s possession metrics were elite but he didn’t have the right players around him to translate that into points. Once again, Michkov can change that if they play together. Foerster was inside the offensive zone a lot but didn’t have the creativity alongside him to find high-danger scoring chances. We could see 50-55 points for the 22-year-old in his sophomore campaign.
If you’re strictly looking for fantasy advice, players like Tippett and Michkov could be great snags while Foerster might be useful in a deeper league. It seems as though those three are the most undervalued on this list.
Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
