Back in the 2023 offseason, the Philadelphia Flyers were fairly busy. They made it their mission to sell off a few veterans to try and create a younger roster. In doing so, they largely succeeded – they went from a 31-38-13 record in a mostly uncompetitive 2022-23 campaign to just barely missing the playoffs after losing their last game of the season in 2023-24.
However, the Flyers had a choice between trading 29-year-old center Scott Laughton or 31-year-old center Kevin Hayes to the St. Louis Blues – they reportedly made offers for both. In the end, the Flyers chose to send off the latter. While the trade was seemingly a success for the Flyers–albeit a minor one–it appears as though they traded the wrong player.
The Flyers’ Trade & One That Never Was
With the Flyers in rebuild mode, they shipped off Hayes to the Blues to free some cap space and also get a bit younger on offense. Hayes, who had 54 points for Philadelphia in 2022-23, only returned a 2024 sixth-round pick in the deal. The real sacrifice came with the Flyers having to eat half of his salary, making it so they owe him $3.57 million every season through 2025-26.
Interestingly enough, the Blues were reportedly after Laughton just days prior to their deal for Hayes. Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff reported, “I’m told that the Flyers have been engaged with the Blues among other teams on [Laughton]. Doug Armstrong had Laughton at the Worlds and really liked him. And I know that the Blues put on the table one of their late first-round picks [either 25th or 29th overall], and I’m told also offered a second-round pick,” he said just before the 2023 NHL draft commenced.
Making both of these deals wasn’t a possibility, as the Blues wouldn’t have been able to afford Laughton’s $3 million contract on top of Hayes’. If Seravalli’s reporting was accurate, the Flyers declined a premium just to keep one veteran forward but trade the other. Looking at the numbers and what was on the table, that was an egregious thing to do.
Laughton vs. Hayes: The Numbers
For starters, the Flyers didn’t really benefit salary-wise as they are paying the two a combined $6.57 million because of the retention situation. If they were to have traded Laughton with no salary retention and kept Hayes, Philadelphia would only be paying Hayes $7.14 million and nothing to Laughton for a net loss of $0.57 million. The cap situation is a non-factor here.
What is really intriguing is comparing the numbers between Laughton and Hayes. Over their last three seasons, they have been eerily similar on this front. In expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60), expected goals percentage (xGF%), average time on ice (ATOI), and points per 60 (P/60), how do the two compare?
In terms of even-strength xGA/60, the two were almost identical. Since 2021-22, Hayes sits at 3.09 versus Laughton’s 3.08. These are two pretty dreadful marks that rank in the 20th and 21st percentiles among all 820 NHL forwards over the last three seasons. Neither of them made up for it with their xGF%, sitting at 46.3 percent and 46.2 percent respectively. The two have almost identical on-ice stats, which shows that they aren’t too different from one another.
Hayes had an even-strength ATOI of 13:53 to 13:38 for Laughton, so their level of competition didn’t have too much of an impact. They were both poor against mediocre-at-best competition.
The real difference between the two comes in their scoring, and it’s a place where Hayes has the advantage. He had an average P/60 of 2.00, while Laughton ended up with 1.76. It’s not significant, but the difference between the 72nd percentile and the 61st is worth noting.
Based on the stats alone, it looks like Hayes has the upper hand. It isn’t concrete as to who the better player is, but the numbers aren’t exactly in Laughton’s favor. Neither the offense, defense, or even the eye test do him justice.
Laughton vs. Hayes: The Locker-Room Factor
One of the big reasons why Laughton is so valued by the Flyers and Hayes wasn’t is due to their impact in the locker room. This is exemplified by Laughton being the first recipient of the Flyers’ Alumni Community Leadership Award in 2023-24. He has a well-known reputation for his support of the LGBTQ+ community and is one of the team’s alternate captains.
While Laughton is a great off-ice personality and might be a genuinely important asset for the Flyers’ locker room, his brutal on-ice numbers make it difficult to put too much weight into that. Ultimately, the results on the ice are what count – he didn’t do a good job on that front.
As for Hayes, he and Philadelphia head coach John Tortorella had a bit of a falling out, which was probably the biggest reason why he was dealt. Even that might be exaggerated, though. “There’s never been a confrontation. There’s been honesty, and I appreciate that from Kevin. He’s been honest with me, too,” Tortorella said last season.
Ironically, Tortorella actively defended Hayes in 2023-24 every chance he got. He made it clear that there was no bad blood between the two, even if they didn’t always see eye-to-eye.
Even if their relationship was in a bad spot, would it really be so significant that it is worth declining a first- and second-round pick and instead taking a sixth? For a rebuilding Philadelphia team that likely won’t have many of the same players by the time they are ready to contend anyway, it’s hard to see how team chemistry would be more valuable than acquiring talent. The rationale there seems a bit flawed.
Is Laughton Even Tradeable Anymore?
With how much Laughton has struggled, his potential trade suitors across the league might be dwindling. He could be fixed by another team, but when a player has a downward spiral for three straight seasons and they are entering their age-30 season, there isn’t a lot of time to make this happen. A change of some kind has to be made for both him and the team to reach their maximum success.
While there might be a team out there willing to take the gamble on Laughton, general manager (GM) Danny Briere has remained adamant that he’s not going to trade the centerman for cheap. Stats can’t measure how important a player is to a locker room, but what they can measure is that he was one of the biggest on-ice liabilities in recent Flyers’ history in 2023-24. Culture is valuable, but generating more chances than your opponent should probably be a tier higher on the hierarchy of importance.
Related: Flyers 2023-24 Player Grades: Scott Laughton
GMs tend to overlook things such as poor on-ice metrics, and that could be Laughton’s ticket to a trade. But whether or not Briere is willing to make that move is impossible to say. Considering what the ask might be, the veteran appears to be untradeable at this point. If a move was going to be made, it was a calendar year ago.
It’s not possible to change history, but it is possible to learn from those mistakes. If Briere and the Flyers want to build a winner in the future, they are going to have to make better decisions. If it truly was a one-or-the-other type of situation, they made the wrong choice in trading Hayes versus Laughton.