After losing in Game 7 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final, the Edmonton Oilers were forced to embark on a pivotal offseason. Not only did Ken Holland step down as general manager (GM), but a handful of decisions had to be made by interim GM Jeff Jackson regarding team personnel. While Evan Bouchard is under contract for one more season, he became eligible to sign an extension this offseason. With that said, who are contract comparables for the young defenseman and what will the two sides ultimately agree to?
Bouchard’s Contract Comparables
Bouchard is in such a unique position because there are very few defensemen like him. The 24-year-old plays arguably the most valuable position in the NHL right now: right defenseman. He is top-five at the position, coming off of a historic playoff performance, and has the upside to join the premier tier of defensemen such as Cale Makar and Adam Fox this season with another strong campaign.
Last season, Bouchard ranked fifth in goals (18), third in assists (64), and fourth in points (82) among NHL defensemen. Despite some fans claiming that Oilers’ stars benefit mainly from playing alongside Connor McDavid and a strong power play, Bouchard proved his worth with just 42.7% of his points coming on the man advantage. For comparison, Makar had 43.3%, Fox 45.2%, and Quinn Hughes 41.3%. Bouchard’s impressive performance at even strength makes it easy to believe this season will bring another career year.
Top defensemen like Fox and Makar are earning nearly $9 million annually (AAV). While Erik Karlsson’s $11.5 million AAV remains the highest, his contract hasn’t aged well. The most recent comparable contract is Rasmus Dahlin’s eight-year deal worth $11 million AAV, signed after a 15-goal, 73-point season. Based on this precedent, Bouchard is likely to secure a similar contract.
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However, the Oilers will not want to give Bouchard a deal worth north of $10 million AAV, and for good reason. In addition to Makar and Fox, the league’s best, young defensemen like Hughes, Charlie McAvoy, Owen Power, Jake Sanderson, and Zach Werenski are all making below $10 million AAV. With the rising salary cap in addition to his historic performance in the 2024 Playoffs, Bouchard will have all the leverage in contract talks, making an extension at a reasonable AAV less likely.
Predicting the Contract
At just 24 years old, Bouchard faces two potential paths in contract negotiations. One option is a shorter deal lasting four to five years. This approach would position him to secure another lucrative contract around age 30, similar to the strategy employed by superstar Auston Matthews who signed a four-year extension that runs until he is 30 years old.
For context in the defenseman market, Makar signed a six-year contract with a $9 million AAV in 2021 at 23 years old. With the rise in the salary cap, this deal is now valued closer to $9.5 million AAV in terms of salary cap percentage, a metric frequently used by GMs and agents. At the time, Makar was coming off an impressive season with eight goals and 44 points in 44 games, a similar production to Bouchard at a slightly younger age.
If Bouchard opts for a shorter-term deal, he would likely command a $10 million AAV, depending on the timing. Signing before this season might allow Edmonton to negotiate an AAV slightly below $10 million. However, another strong season could push the value of a short-term deal above $10.5 million.
Alternatively, if Bouchard prefers to secure an eight-year contract, the AAV range expands. He could land an eight-year deal worth $10 million AAV if he decides to go the team-friendly route. As well, another breakout this season could increase this figure to over $11 million AAV, potentially reaching $12 million if he undoubtedly joins the top tier with Makar and Fox.
Ultimately, Bouchard is likely to sign a four to six-year contract worth around $10.5 million annually. This term allows him to renegotiate when he’s close to 30, similar to Matthews. With the salary cap potentially reaching around $100 million by the end of this contract, he could secure an AAV exceeding $15 million in his next deal, extending into his late 30s. While the exact terms of his next contract remain to be settled, it is almost certain to fall within the $10 to $12 million AAV range.
