Realistic Expectations for Blackhawks’ Bowen Byram in 2026-27

Chicago Blackhawks general manager (GM) Kyle Davidson made the biggest move of his career this offseason, trading for Buffalo Sabres defenseman Bowen Byram.

After giving up the fourth overall pick in the 2026 Draft along with defenseman Louis Crevier and a second-round pick in the 2026 Draft, the reception from many fans was confused at best. Then, Byram signed a six-year deal with a $12.5 million average annual value (AAV), making him the second-highest-paid defenseman in the NHL behind newly signed Cale Makar, who will make $20.4 million AAV.

With the crazy high price it took to acquire Byram, which shocked many people when the deal was reported, and then the expected big contract he signed, expectations for Byram are huge heading into the 2026-27 season.

What Should We Expect?

To justify this trade and contract extension as worth it, Byram is going to have to be a bona fide number one defenseman for the Blackhawks. Those expectations are lofty for a guy who has never actually fulfilled that and is already 25 years old, but the whole reason this move was made was because of the potential upside.

Byram had career-high numbers in goals and assists, recording 11 goals and 31 assists for 42 points in 82 games. He also posted a career high in expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60) at 2.7.

So how much more does he need to produce to be considered a true number one defenseman? He doesn’t need to be a Makar or Quinn Hughes-level defenseman, but for him to be considered a number one defenseman, he needs to push his point total up into the mid 60s.

Top-end defensemen have the elite seasons where they go a point per game, but they are usually in and around 70 points. I’m willing to bend my expectations a little bit for Byram because I just don’t think there is a world where we’re going to see a 30-point season-over-season increase.

Is a 20-point season-over-season increase reasonable? It’ll be extremely difficult, but there could be a pathway to it, and it’ll come through the power play.

Part of the reason Byram wanted a move from Buffalo is that his opportunity of becoming a true number one defenseman was blocked. Rasmus Dahlin was the clear best defenseman on that roster, and the Sabres seem to really believe in their 2021 first overall pick, Owen Power.

With a crowded defense corps, Byram wasn’t the first option on the power play for Buffalo. Dahlin rightfully had 135 more minutes on the power play than Byram last season. The opportunity to run the top power-play unit will be available to him in Chicago with nobody else who will realistically push for that spot.

Last season, Byram recorded just seven points on the power play in comparison to Dahlin’s 22. I’m obviously not saying that Byram could’ve matched that total because Dahlin is at a different level, but even if he can record 14 power-play points, that’s already seven of the 20-point jump I’m looking for.

In terms of his defensive play, he isn’t a shutdown defenseman, but he still won the minutes he played last season with a 52.16 percent goals-for percentage (GF%). The expected numbers weren’t as good, posting a 48.22 expected goals-for percentage (xGF%), suggesting he got a tad fortunate, but it isn’t a drastic enough difference to suggest his career season was lucky.

The roster in Chicago isn’t nearly as good as Buffalo’s, so the numbers may not be as good, but if he can repeat those numbers, I’d look at that as a success.

To wrap it up, I’d be looking for Byram to have an impact on the power play, reach around 60 points, and just have his offense outweigh his defensive flaws on a weak defensive roster.