After two losses on the road, the Ottawa Senators were eager to return home for Game 3 of their First-Round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Ottawa was one of the strongest home teams in the Eastern Conference this season, earning nearly 59% of their points at home, so if the tides were going to shift in the series, it would be at the Canadian Tire Centre.
Despite scoring the first goal and improving on several issues that plagued them in Toronto, the Senators fell just short again, losing 3-2 in overtime for the second straight game. They now risk being swept by their provincial rivals on home ice, and while they keep inching closer to claiming their first playoff victory, there are a few things they’ll need to keep in mind before Saturday’s game.
Fewer Penalties Lead to Better Scoring Chances for Senators
The biggest storyline out of Game 1 was the number of undisciplined penalties the Senators took. They came out of the gate ready to fight, throwing their weight around, making sure they wouldn’t be pushed around. That led to a lot of penalties, though. Ottawa was called for 13 penalties through the first two games, 11 of which were in Game 1. That led to four power-play goals for the Maple Leafs. The Senators only scored four goals through two games, so those man-advantages made a difficult task nearly impossible.
In Game 3, the Senators were still physical, maybe even more than in their first two games, but they were only called for four penalties, two of which were coincidental minors that didn’t put Ottawa down a man. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs were called for six, allowing Claude Giroux to get a power-play goal early in the second period.
However, the penalties weren’t without controversy. On the Sportsnet broadcast, commentator Kevin Bieksa railed against the growing pattern of handing out coincidental minor penalties, echoing ESPN’s P.K. Subban’s comments after Game 1.
Contrary to what we’ve come to expect in the playoffs, the referees in this series seem determined to call a close game, leading to arguably weaker calls. It could be their effort to prevent the series from getting ugly. We’ve all seen what Brady Tkachuk can do when he’s firing on all cylinders, and with the bad blood between these two franchises, it might be a safety precaution. In any case, the Senators will have to continue to play within the lines if they want a chance to win Game 4.
Senators Need Better Shots
Speaking of winning Game 4, the Senators aren’t going to do it with just two goals. True, they’ve pushed the Maple Leafs to overtime twice after taking their bumps in Game 1, but Games 2 and 3 ended less than four minutes into extra time. Toronto has better offensive weapons than Ottawa, and if they want a chance at pushing for Game 5, they need to make them work harder.
Related: Benoit Scores OT Winner as Maple Leafs Defeat Senators 3-2 in Game 3
Of course, that’s easier said than done. Toronto’s defence has been very strong, preventing a lot of shots from getting through. It’s a typical Craig Berube system – laying your body on the line for the team. The shots that do get through are usually stopped by goaltender Anthony Stolarz, who has been incredibly consistent between the pipes. Last game, the Senators put just 20 shots on goal while the Maple Leafs blocked 17.
But the Senators have found gaps, proving that if they can get good shots on net, Stolarz is beatable. Giroux’s power-play goal was a clean shot from the top of the circle that beat him blocker side, while Tkachuk fired one past him on the same side off the rush.
But Tim Stutzle, the Senators’ leading regular-season scorer, has just one assist, and Dylan Cozens only has one goal despite putting 18 shots on Stolarz in three games. They’ve played well, but they need to be more involved in the offence and find that extra gear. The same goes for Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot, who haven’t had the cleanest series so far. When they are on, the Senators have a dangerous offence, but without them, scoring becomes much more difficult, as we’ve seen.
Senators Faceoffs Remain a Big Issue
While many talked about the Senators’ penalty trouble, their struggles in the faceoff dot have been much more problematic. In their first two games, they finished with a 44% and a 47% success rate, forcing them to fight even harder for the puck. Game 3 was even worse, with Ottawa winning just 37% of their faceoffs, and their failure in that area was directly responsible for the game-winning goal from Simon Benoit.
With everyone still clumped in front of the net, Linus Ullmark was perfectly screened. “I didn’t see anything,” Ullmark said after the game. “Sometimes it’s luck that it goes through those bodies, as well. Sometimes it’s a bad bounce, but give (Benoit) credit, he found a way to get it all the way.”
Ullmark had a much better game on Thursday, making several big stops that kept the Senators in it when they had defensive lapses. Their defence also improved, making far fewer mistakes and blocking some big shots throughout the game that could have otherwise been goals. But, because Ottawa couldn’t get possession off the faceoff, they were at a disadvantage, and given Toronto’s ability to move the puck very quickly, it was a matter of time before the Maple Leafs got another grade-A scoring chance.
After three games, only three players sit with a faceoff success rate over 50%: Michael Amadio, Stutzle, and Cozens. Of those, Amadio has only taken one faceoff, and Stutzle is playing primarily on the wing, limiting his faceoffs to just 13. The Senators’ two biggest faceoff men, Shane Pinto and Giroux, have not won nearly enough draws, averaging a 41% success rate between them over 84 attempts. Those numbers have to improve significantly if they want to give Ullmark a chance to make more big-time saves.
Senators On the Brink of Elimination
It’s do or die on Saturday night, and although the Senators have shown a lot of growth in a very short time, they’ll have to dig deep to pull out a win in their first playoff series since 2017. “Our backs are up against the wall,” said Tkachuk ahead of his first elimination game. “This is where our true character is going to show out.” We know the Senators are a tough, gritty team. Tomorrow night, they need to show that.
