Which NHL Teams’ Fast Starts Are Legitimate?

It’s early in the NHL season, but a few teams are off to stronger starts than some may have expected. The question is, how real are these starts? Let’s dive in and see which look real and which could fade as the season progresses.

Boston Bruins

Before the season began, I wrote that the Bruins would take a step back. The main reason was that their five-on-five numbers were among the NHL’s worst last season. Well, guess what. The Bruins are 9-2-1 and sit atop the Atlantic Division with 19 points. They also have the NHL’s best goal differential at +22.

The Bruins’ five-on-five numbers have improved significantly, at least early on, totaling an expected goals share (xG%) of 55.4 percent. That ranks fifth in the NHL, placing them just behind the Minnesota Wild. The Bruins have gotten it done at both ends of the ice, too. They’re generating 3.10 expected goals per 60 minutes while allowing just 2.5 expected goals per 60 minutes.

Once again, Jeremy Swayman’s great goaltending has helped the Bruins get off to a strong start. But young players like Fraser Minten, Matthew Poitras, etc., have powered the team’s strong start.

The Bruins are currently on pace for 133 points. That’s unlikely to last, but their good start looks legit. Marco Sturm deserves plenty of credit for remaking the Bruins since taking over as head coach last season. They look like they could be one of the top teams in the Atlantic.

Ottawa Senators

One of the Bruins’ Atlantic foes, the Senators have also gotten off to a strong start. They’re 8-4-0 and sit second in the Atlantic behind the Bruins after a 7-4 win over the New York Rangers on Oct. 24.

The Senators’ five-on-five numbers aren’t quite at the Bruins’ level, but they’re still solid. They have a 51.6 xG%, 16th in the NHL, placing them just behind the Dallas Stars. They play low-event hockey for the most part, but that hasn’t hurt them so far.

At least through 12 games, the Senators haven’t seemed to miss Brady Tkachuk, either. And that’s with William Eklund out long-term after suffering an injury early during the season. This team has plenty of talent, and their start looks legit, too. They should be in the playoff mix, even if they ultimately qualify as a wild-card team.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs have suddenly surged up the standings with a four-game winning streak. They’re 7-4-2, but there’s still reason to have concerns. Their five-on-five numbers are among the NHL’s weakest. They have an xG% of 46 percent, and their xG% is just 47.8 percent during their four-game winning streak.

So far, the Maple Leafs have outscored some of their concerns. Auston Matthews looks like he’s back, too, which is a positive sign. But their blue line is bleeding chances. The Maple Leafs are allowing 2.7 expected goals per 60 minutes, 22nd in the NHL.

Even offensively, the Maple Leafs are only creating 2.3 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Every season, a team or two outperforms its expected numbers. Maybe the Maple Leafs are that team, but I’m not buying stock yet. Their good start seems like a mirage, but time will tell.

New Jersey Devils

The Devils may be the NHL’s most interesting team after acquiring Connor Hellebuyck in a blockbuster trade with the Winnipeg Jets. They have been one of the best five-on-five teams, totaling a 61.1 xG%. That number is atop the NHL, even ahead of the Carolina Hurricanes.

The Devils have some concerns, though. One was goaltending, but Hellebuyck should rectify their issues in net. Before the Devils acquired Hellebuyck, Jake Allen and Nico Daws had allowed nearly six goals above expected, making them one of the NHL’s weaker tandems. Now with Hellebuyck and Allen, the Devils should have one of the NHL’s better duos.

Finishing has also been a concern for the Devils, but it has been a bit better lately. They’ve scored 25 goals on 24.1 expected goals since their 5-4 win over the Detroit Red Wings, so that may be coming around.

Otherwise, the Devils’ start looks legit. They’re heavily tilting the ice in their favor at five-on-five, and Hellebuyck addresses perhaps the team’s biggest weakness. They’ve gotten by with below-average goaltending, but still have a 7-4-0 record. Hellebuyck could make them a wagon if he resembles anything close to a Vezina candidate.

Seattle Kraken

The Kraken are 7-4-1 and have been a nice story through the first month of the season, but they don’t look built to last, even though the Pacific Division is a complete crapshoot after the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers.

The Kraken have a 44.9 xG% through their first 11 games, and they’ve struggled to defend at five-on-five, allowing 2.9 expected goals per 60 minutes. There have been some bright spots, like Berkly Catton, but this organization still has a long way to go to become legit playoff contenders.

One thing that helps the Kraken is the Pacific Division. It’ll sort itself out, but I have no idea who wants that third automatic playoff spot. The San Jose Sharks are the best bet, but there’s no obvious favorite right now. That could keep the Kraken around in the playoff race, but they don’t look particularly good to start 2026-27.

Utah Mammoth

I’ve been buying Mammoth stock since the offseason. At least so far, they’ve impressed. They’re not far behind the Devils and Hurricanes in xG%, at 58 percent. They have a ton of skill up front, and it shows, as they’re averaging 2.9 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five.

It’s not just the Mammoth’s top six that’s impressing, either. Depth players like Barrett Hayton and Kailer Yamamoto are off to strong starts and helping the Mammoth look like contenders in the West. They’re also defending quite well as a team, allowing just 2.1 expected goals per 60 minutes.

The one concern for the Mammoth has been their goaltending. Karel Vejmelka has allowed 4.7 goals above expected, while Sebastian Cossa has allowed 3.4 above expected. They’ve actually gotten worse goaltending than the Devils.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Mammoth manage their goaltending, but they look like a great team. They should make the chase for playoff spots in the Central quite interesting as the season progresses.

It’s early in 2026-27, but aside from the Kraken and Maple Leafs, these teams appear to be on their way to contending for postseason berths. We’ll see if that holds as 2026-27 progresses.

Advanced stats from Hockey Stats