Now two full months into the draft year, some prospects are seeing their stock trend down.
Here are 10 notable fallers from my November rankings — my top 186 for the 2020 NHL draft.
RELATED: 10 Risers from Fisher’s Top 186 for November
1) Antonio Stranges (LC/LW, USA, London OHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 16
NOVEMBER RANKING: 26
VARIATION: -10
ANALYSIS: Stranges’ skating is a sight to behold and he has dangles for days when it comes to his shootout moves, but his overall game has some glaring holes that Dale Hunter will be working on with him throughout the draft year. The offensive upside is certainly there, but the defensive side and his play without the puck leaves a lot to be desired. Stranges is a much better skater than former London Knight Robby Schremp and fellow OHL alum Josh Ho-Sang — that is his biggest strength, especially the 10-and-2 pivoting manoeuvres — but some scouts are starting to draw those parallels. I’m still a fan of Stranges and still have him in my 17-26 tier — a group of 10 prospects that I consider near locks for the first round as of today. He was in that same tier for October, when it was 15-27. It is worth noting that Stranges has been outshone lately — at least statistically — by his draft-eligible teammate Luke Evangelista (113), who debuted in my rankings as a fourth-rounder for November but could become a big riser.
2) Vasili Ponomarev (LC, Russia, Shawinigan QMJHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 19
NOVEMBER RANKING: 29
VARIATION: -10
ANALYSIS: Ponomarev fell through no real fault of his own — he’s off to a good start in the Q, making a pretty smooth transition to North America — but more so due to a reshuffling on my part. I might have been a bit too high on him at No. 19 in my previous two rankings — I’m not convinced he’s a first-rounder and thus I bumped him down to my bubble tier from 27-45, with those 19 prospects all being legitimate contenders to round out my first round from one month to the next. Ponomarev is still in my top 31 as of today and he’s a solid prospect, I’m just undecided on his offensive upside as a pro and what role is in his future. That evaluation is ongoing in trying to determine his ceiling, but I feel the floor is relatively high.
3) Jaromir Pytlik (RC, Czech Republic, Sault Ste. Marie OHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 20
NOVEMBER RANKING: 30
VARIATION: -10
ANALYSIS: Pytlik is in the same boat, with most that analysis from Ponomarev also applying to him — including the uncertainty over his offensive potential. Those two imports have been paired in my rankings for October and November, producing at a similar point-per-game pace playing major junior in Canada. Pytlik came over partway through last season and he’s almost six months older than Ponomarev, so he’s got experience on his side. There are discrepancies in their skill-sets, but it made sense to keep them grouped for now. Perhaps one of them will pull away or tail off as the season progresses. The other question that needs to be answered is whether Pytlik was named after Jaromir Jagr?
4) Jake Sanderson (LD, USA, NTDP U18)
OCTOBER RANKING: 24
NOVEMBER RANKING: 34
VARIATION: -10
ANALYSIS: Sanderson, the son of former NHLer Geoff, has got his dad’s wheels and processes the game with a high hockey IQ by all accounts. He remains in the mix to be a late first-rounder and I hope to see more of The Program in the coming weeks (and months) to get a better read on Sanderson. I like what I’ve seen so far and he is currently the NTDP’s highest-scoring defender, but I think there is more offensive upside in his game. He has the tools — and the toolbox — so the production should pick up, though I wasn’t expecting Sanderson to come close to Cam York’s draft year stats. Like the previous two prospects on this list, Sanderson isn’t a significant faller for me but also fell victim to my latest reshuffling — along with this next guy, who happens to be his teammate.
5) Ty Smilanic (LW/LC, USA, NTDP U18)
OCTOBER RANKING: 29
NOVEMBER RANKING: 35
VARIATION: -6
ANALYSIS: Smilanic is perceived to be the most skilled forward on this NTDP team — this is a down year for The Program in general — and he’s still leading that pack in my November rankings, just ahead of Thomas Bordeleau (36) and Luke Tuch (37). Smilanic has played six fewer games than those two and he’s been a bit snakebitten in the goal-scoring department, but he’s still passing the eye test from a talent standpoint. The surprise on that team has been Brett Berard (160), who debuted in my rankings as a sixth-rounder this month but could shoot up in a hurry if he continues to fill the net and pile up the points. I won’t declare him the next Cole Caufield or Alex DeBrincat, but Berard deserved that little shout-out.
6) Connor McClennon (RW, Canada, Winnipeg WHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 34
NOVEMBER RANKING: 58
VARIATION: -24
ANALYSIS: McClennon has been struggling to score this season — netting just five goals through 20 games heading into tonight — and that has him falling fast in most of the publicly available rankings, including mine now. I gave McClennon the benefit of the doubt in October because I’m quite high on him as a prospect — I had him as a first-rounder (28) in my preseason rankings — but the lack of goals is concerning, especially since I consider McClennon more of a scorer than a playmaker based on his skill-set.
McClennon’s fall is starting to remind me of Josh Williams last season — another WHL forward that couldn’t score and wound up going undrafted despite still being a third-rounder in my final rankings (92). Like McClennon, I had Williams as a first-rounder (25) in my preseason rankings for the 2019 draft — coming off a stellar showing at last year’s Hlinka Gretzky Cup. McClennon wasn’t nearly as much of a standout at that showcase this summer, so perhaps that should have raised a red flag. But the draft year is still young and McClennon could turn it up a notch now that Peyton Krebs is back. Krebs made his season debut on Sunday and they combined to set up Winnipeg’s lone goal — scored by Michal Teply — but started that game on separate lines. McClennon is still a second-rounder for me, but if Krebs can’t spark him in forming a dynamic duo, then fellow WHLers Ozzy Wiesblatt (67), Ridly Greig (68) and Jack Finley (79) could overtake McClennon in the months to come. They are all in the same tier from 46-80 as second-round candidates.
7) Shakir Mukhamadullin (LD, Russia, Tolpar Ufa MHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 38
NOVEMBER RANKING: 45
VARIATION: -7
ANALYSIS: I still don’t know what to make of Mukhamadullin. He slipped seven spots for November and now rounds out that bubble tier (27-45) of potential first-rounders. There is lots to like about Mukhamadullin — his skating, his offensive instincts, his physicality and ability to time those big open-ice hits — but something is making me hesitant about him and thus reluctant to rank him any higher. Maybe that’s just the Russian factor — which comes with unfair stereotypes — but it might also be a hockey sense thing. His positioning and awareness can be suspect at times — and sometimes that can’t be taught. Time will tell on that front, but the raw upside of Mukhamadullin is both impressive and intriguing, which is keeping him in that tier for the time being.
8) Jean-Luc Foudy (RC, Canada, Windsor OHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 40
NOVEMBER RANKING: 59
VARIATION: -19
ANALYSIS: Foudy has speed to burn — and today’s NHL is built for speed — but his finishing ability is a work in progress. He’s a decent playmaker — again, thanks to all that speed — but he’ll need to start scoring on more of his chances to challenge his older brother Liam’s draft position as a first-rounder (18th overall) from 2018. The Foudys are blessed with great genes — their dad played professional football in the CFL and their mom was an Olympic sprinter — so some scouts are higher on Jean-Luc because of those bloodlines. Personally, I prefer the Suzuki brothers — Nick (13th in 2017) and Ryan (28th in 2019) — for their creativity, but the Foudys are going to generate offence through their explosive skating. That may get nullified to a degree at the NHL level where everyone is reasonably fast and well positioned, so that is when the Foudys will be tested for their processing ability and how they think the game. Jean-Luc has decent vision and could develop into a Jean-Gabriel Pageau type. I think that’s his upside, as a middle-six forward and above average third-liner. For me, that’s more of a second-round pick, but Foudy could get back into that bubble tier for December with a few more goals over the next month.
9) Will Cuylle (LW, Canada, Windsor OHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 41
NOVEMBER RANKING: 60
VARIATION: -19
ANALYSIS: Cuylle has the size that NHL scouts covet and, for the most part, knows how to use it as a budding power forward. He’s good along the boards and in front of the net. But unlike the aforementioned Foudy — his Windsor teammate — Cuylle wasn’t blessed with good wheels. His skating could hold him back — from becoming a first-round pick and from making the NHL. As mentioned, speed is the name of the game now, and Cuylle needs to gain another gear or two to keep up with the pro pace. Skating is a skill that can be learned even at the next level — NHL scoring leader Leon Draisaitl’s skating was knocked coming out of junior but is no longer a concern and he’s just one of many examples — so some team will take a chance on Cuylle and probably take him sooner than later. A lot of teams likely have him in that bubble tier — closer to the first round than me — but I’m keeping an open mind about moving him back up. I’d like to see Cuylle play a bit more physical and meaner to maximize his size advantages. I could see Cuylle becoming a Patrick Maroon type by taking that advice. I don’t think he’s going to be the next Todd Bertuzzi or James van Riemsdyk.
10) Veeti Miettinen (RW, Finland, Kiekko-Espoo U20)
OCTOBER RANKING: 42
NOVEMBER RANKING: 63
VARIATION: -21
ANALYSIS: Miettinen is scoring a ton in Finland’s junior league — he’s leading that league in goals, with 18 in 25 games — but I’d like to see him at the pro level, in the Liiga, as one of the older prospects in this draft class. He only missed the 2019 cutoff by five days and he already torched the junior league last season — with 27 goals and 61 points in 48 games, ranking fourth among league leaders in both categories — so Miettinen clearly needs more of a challenge and the scouts would love to see what he can do against men. Especially with Miettinen being on the small side, that next step will provide quite the challenge. I’m sure he’s ready for it, but making the jump to pro would void Miettinen’s commitment to St. Cloud State — due to NCAA eligibility rules that also apply to European recruits — so he will likely remain in the junior ranks for the duration of his draft year and try to take a run at some scoring records for that league. Hopefully he’s still in consideration for Finland’s world-junior team because that best-on-best showcase could really boost Miettinen’s stock and thrust him back into my first-round bubble tier.
Honourable Mentions
NOTE: Here are 33 more prospects that fell by double digits in my November rankings, which expanded from four rounds to six — from 124 to 186 — and bumped down a bunch of prospects from October in the process.
Ryder Rolston (RW, USA, Waterloo USHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 57
NOVEMBER RANKING: 78
VARIATION: -21
Dylan Peterson (RC, USA/Canada, NTDP U18)
OCTOBER RANKING: 58
NOVEMBER RANKING: 84
VARIATION: -26
Leo Loof (LD, Sweden, Farjestad J20)
OCTOBER RANKING: 61
NOVEMBER RANKING: 74
VARIATION: -13
Jan Bednar (G, Czech Republic, Karlovy Vary Czech)
OCTOBER RANKING: 63
NOVEMBER RANKING: 76
VARIATION: -13
Theo Rochette (LC, Canada/Switzerland, Chicoutimi QMJHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 64
NOVEMBER RANKING: 80
VARIATION: -16
Cross Hanas (LW, USA/Canada, Portland WHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 65
NOVEMBER RANKING: 89
VARIATION: -24
Donovan Sebrango (LD, Canada, Kitchener OHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 70
NOVEMBER RANKING: 101
VARIATION: -31
Ronan Seeley (LD, Canada, Everett WHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 80
NOVEMBER RANKING: 106
VARIATION: -26
Blake Biondi (RC, USA, Sioux City USHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 81
NOVEMBER RANKING: 102
VARIATION: -21
Noah Ellis (RD, USA, Des Moines USHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 83
NOVEMBER RANKING: 104
VARIATION: -21
Calle Clang (G, Sweden, Rogle SHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 84
NOVEMBER RANKING: 123
VARIATION: -39
Pavel Tyutnev (LC, Russia, Loko Yaroslavl MHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 89
NOVEMBER RANKING: 121
VARIATION: -32
Kyle Crnkovic (LW, Canada, Saskatoon WHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 90
NOVEMBER RANKING: 111
VARIATION: -21
Joona Kiviniemi (LW, Finland, Vancouver WHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 92
NOVEMBER RANKING: 132
VARIATION: -40
Simon Kubicek (RD, Czech Republic, Seattle WHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 94
NOVEMBER RANKING: 108
VARIATION: -14
Christoffer Sedoff (LD, Finland, Red Deer WHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 95
NOVEMBER RANKING: 107
VARIATION: -12
Noah Delemont (LD, Switzerland, Acadie-Bathurst QMJHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 96
NOVEMBER RANKING: 126
VARIATION: -30
Joona Lehmus (LD, Finland, Saint John QMJHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 97
NOVEMBER RANKING: 127
VARIATION: -30
Ville Ottavainen (RD, Finland, Kitchener OHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 99
NOVEMBER RANKING: 128
VARIATION: -29
Logan Morrison (RC, Canada, Hamilton OHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 101
NOVEMBER RANKING: 130
VARIATION: -29
Vsevolod Skotnikov (G, Russia, Krasnaya Armiya Moskva MHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 103
NOVEMBER RANKING: 122
VARIATION: -19
Jesse Seppala (LW, Finland, Edmonton WHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 106
NOVEMBER RANKING: 170
VARIATION: -64
Jack Smith (LC, USA, St. Cloud Cathedral U.S. High School)
OCTOBER RANKING: 107
NOVEMBER RANKING: 142
VARIATION: -35
Brendan Brisson (LC/LW, USA/Canada, Chicago USHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 108
NOVEMBER RANKING: 143
VARIATION: -35
Sam Colangelo (RW, USA, Chicago USHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 109
NOVEMBER RANKING: 144
VARIATION: -35
Mark Estapa (LW, USA, Tri-City USHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 110
NOVEMBER RANKING: 156
VARIATION: -46
Jack Williams (RW, USA, Muskegon USHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 111
NOVEMBER RANKING: 157
VARIATION: -46
Ben King (RC/RW, Canada, Red Deer WHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 113
NOVEMBER RANKING: 133
VARIATION: -20
Keanu Derungs (LW, Switzerland, Victoria WHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 114
NOVEMBER RANKING: 151
VARIATION: -37
Ivan Ivan (LC, Czech Republic, Cape Breton QMJHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 115
NOVEMBER RANKING: 149
VARIATION: -34
Senna Peeters (RC, Belgium, Halifax QMJHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 116
NOVEMBER RANKING: 150
VARIATION: -34
Stanislav Rangayev (F, Russia, Ladia Togliatti MHL)
OCTOBER RANKING: 118
NOVEMBER RANKING: 180
VARIATION: -62
Isak Garfve (RC/LW, Sweden, Mora J20)
OCTOBER RANKING: 119
NOVEMBER RANKING: 152
VARIATION: -33
