3 Breakout Candidates for the 2025-26 Blue Jackets - The Hockey Writers - Columbus Blue Jackets

Since the regular season is closing in quickly, I am continuing to preview the Columbus Blue Jackets’ 2025-26 season here at The Hockey Writers. This is a crossroads season for the franchise, given that the Blue Jackets have not made the playoffs since the 2019-20 season, nearly returning last season after falling just two points short.

It feels like a make-or-break upcoming season, and if Columbus wants to stay near the top four of the Metropolitan Division, several players will need to have breakout seasons. Of course, we already expect plenty of production from the likes of Sean Monahan, Kirill Marchenko, and Zach Werenski, but I want to take a look at some names who have already flashed at the NHL level but could take their game to another level. Here are my three breakout candidates for the 2025-26 Blue Jackets.

Note: stats below are from Natural Stat Trick and QuantHockey.

Denton Mateychuk

The first player I think can breakout is Denton Mateychuk, a young two-way defenseman who skates well and moves the puck out quickly. He has the versatility to play on both the left and right side of a pairing, can kill penalties, and could even work his way onto the second power-play unit depending on his development.

Last season with the Blue Jackets, he recorded four goals and nine assists for 13 points, while averaging 18:02 of ice time. He scored his first NHL goal on Jan. 9, 2025, and later scored the first goal in the Stadium Series win over the Detroit Red Wings in February.

A mobile defenseman with upside at both ends of the ice, he looks ready for a role boost in 2025-26 under head coach Dean Evason. My colleague Mark Scheig here at the Hockey Writers has him projected on the second defensive pairing on the left side with Ivan Provorov, a spot that I think fits well.

Mateychuk needs to add more physicality, which can help him break out offensively this coming season. Even though he is on the smaller side, he finished last season with 114 hits and 63 blocked shots across 45 games, which is impressive for a rookie season. With his skating and growing confidence, I see him rounding out his defensive game while also becoming more impactful offensively, with a projected breakout season in my book.

Adam Fantilli

Adam Fantilli has the potential to put up far more points than his 54 from last season. Matching his 31-goal total feels realistic, and he could even push toward 40 with the kind of ceiling he has.

Fantilli has a legitimate chance to break out and establish himself as one of the top forwards in the Metropolitan Division and across the Eastern Conference. In a previous article where I projected the Blue Jackets’ power-play units, I had him slotted in as the center on the second unit because of his faceoff strength and scoring ability. Much like Kirill Marchenko last season, Fantilli is poised for a big jump.

Fantilli played all 82 games, showing how reliable he is on the second line. He averaged 17:28 of ice time and posted 54 total points. In the faceoff circle, he went 420/1019 (41.22%), taking the second-most draws on the team behind Sean Monahan. He forechecked harder in his second season, finishing with 113 hits, taking 100 himself, and blocking 56 shots. He also hit the gym this offseason to avoid getting pushed around as much. That extra strength should help him win more battles in front of the net, be a stronger forechecker, and generate even more offense.

Offensively, the shooting numbers stand out. He fired 191 shots, which was the third most on the team, and scored on 16.2% of them, which was also the third highest. That means around 16% of his shots went in, which is pretty solid efficiency. If he shoots more, even more consistent production will follow.

Mark Scheig projects Fantilli as the second-line center with Dmitri Voronkov on his left and Kent Johnson on his right, another guy I think can break out this coming season. He averaged 0.659 points per game last season, and I think he can push that number closer to a point per game in the 2025-26 season. That is not an easy mark to hit, but I am very high on his growth and what he can become as a top-six centerman.

Jet Greaves

Between the American Hockey League’s (AHL) Cleveland Monsters and the Blue Jackets, Jet Greaves went 5-0-0 in just seven days late last season. That stretch included four games in five nights, which showed his durability and ability to perform when it mattered most. Now that Daniil Tarasov was traded to the Florida Panthers earlier this offseason, Greaves and Elvis Merzlikins could realistically split starts this season, likely in a 60/40 role.

Depending on how October goes, where the Blue Jackets face seven out of 10 2025 Playoff teams, Greaves might even grab hold of the starter’s role. In 11 NHL games with Columbus last season, he posted a 1.91 goals-against average (GAA) and a .938 save percentage (SV%), finishing with a 7-2-2 record.

Greaves is calm and smart between the pipes. He reads the play well, tracking pucks through screens, and stays composed when under attack. At 6-foot-0, he’s a bit smaller than most NHL-level goalies, but he makes up for it with great positioning and athleticism. He can still improve his puck-handling, but he’s a smart player who understands the game well.

According to PAVEL Analytics powered by TDDT, Greaves’ underlying card was outstanding in his short NHL sample. Metrics like weighted goals-against average percentage (GAA%), goals saved above average percentage (GSAE%), and high-danger value percentage suggest he could be a future franchise goalie.

Also, per NHL EDGE stats, Greaves stopped 46 of 47 high-danger shots (.979 SV%) and 45 of 47 midrange shots (.957 SV%) over a five-game stretch in eight days for the Blue Jackets later last season. At 24 years old, he is still young and has lots more to prove. He’s played only 21 NHL games so far, with a 10-9-2 record, 2.62 GAA, and .918 SV%. All of those numbers, combined with the way the team rallied behind him last season, point to him being ready to truly break out over a full NHL season.

When looking ahead, the Blue Jackets obviously will need their key players to deliver, but they also need a few breakout seasons to stay competitive in the Metro this season. The three players mentioned above all have to take steps forward if Columbus is finally going to push themselves back into the playoffs.