The World Junior Championship is my favourite part of the hockey season. In just a short two and a half weeks, some of the best prospects in the world fight to claim the gold medal and prove that their nation has the greatest hockey development system anywhere. It’s frantic, competitive, and always leads to unexpected results.
Last year was especially unpredictable. Canada lost a baffling game against the Latvians, and after another loss to the Czechs, they went home with their first back-to-back fifth-place finish in over 40 years. Meanwhile, the USA had their own historic finish, claiming its first back-to-back gold medals in the program’s history, overcoming a 3-1 deficit to beat the Finns 4-3 in overtime.
Anything can happen at the World Juniors, so, naturally, I’m going to try to predict some of the biggest events in the tournament, and if you’re going to make a prediction, you might as well swing for the fences. Here are my five bold predictions for the 2026 World Junior Championship.
1. USA Goes Home Without a Medal on Home Soil
In a short tournament like the World Juniors, goaltending is crucial. In 2024 and 2025, the Americans had stellar performances from Jacob Fowler and Trey Augustine to win back-to-back gold medals. This year, though, they will have to turn to three new faces in net, which could make not only reaching the gold medal game difficult, but claiming a medal at all.
Nicholas Kempf is the most likely to be given the starting job, as he was very good for the Americans at the 2024 U18 World Junior Championship, but hasn’t been great this season, posting a .893 save percentage (SV%) in 16 games with the University of Notre Dame. Caleb Heil has been a solid performer at the U19 World Junior A Challenge, but he also has subpar numbers with his club team this season.
Related: Guide to the 2026 World Junior Championship
Their weakness in goal will force Team USA to rely more on their blueline. There are some obvious strengths, namely, Cole Hutson returning to lead the top pairing, but the rest of the Americans’ blueline are more defensive players. That’s great for the goaltending issue, but not so much for contributing to the offence. Only Hutson and 2026 draft-eligible Chase Reid have consistently provided high-end offence this season, leaving a lot of work for the forwards.
Team USA will still be a tough competitor, but their lack of depth will be tough to overcome against the Swedes, Canadians, Finns, and Czechs. Even the Slovaks could prove tough competitors, as all three of their goalies have outperformed Heil in the USHL. This might be the year that the Americans take a step back and recalibrate.
2. McKenna Loses the Projected First Pick to Stenberg
All eyes will be on Gavin McKenna when Canada takes to the ice on Dec. 26. The projected first overall draft pick this year has been lauded as a generational talent on the same level as Patrick Kane or Connor Bedard, and he ranks tied for fifth all-time among U17 players and 13th overall among U18 players in Western Hockey League (WHL) history.
But this season has been a big change for McKenna. He, along with dozens of other Canadian Hockey League (CHL) players, decided to try their hand at playing in the NCAA following the rule change, and while he’s been good, putting up 18 points in 16 games, he hasn’t looked as generational as he did before. That’s led some to worry if the jump to NCAA hockey was too sudden for the youngster and is now exposing some of the weaker elements of his game.
One of the bigger voices who has been critical of McKenna’s play at Penn State has been The Athletic’s Corey Pronman, who downgraded him to an average first-overall prospect and wrote, “for a guy whose value is essentially his scoring, he’s not scoring enough.” (from ‘Gavin McKenna’s start, a Tynan Lawrence comparable and more: Pronman mailbag,’ The Athletic – 19/11/2025).
Meanwhile, Sweden’s Ivar Stenberg has been lighting up the Swedish Hockey League (SHL) this season. He leads all U19 players with 24 points in 25 games, and with a 0.96 point-per-game average, he’s outproducing Daniel and Henrik Sedin, Peter Forsberg, and Leo Carlsson at the same age. That’s led a few scouts to already place him above McKenna for the 2026 Draft, with The Hockey News’ Tony Ferrari writing, “In a year when first overall has become an uncertainty, Stenberg brings versatility and upper-echelon offensive upside.”
Although it’s just a handful of games, the first overall has been decided at the World Juniors before. The most famous example is arguably Nico Hischier, who was so impressive for Switzerland in 2017 that he convinced the New Jersey Devils to take him over Nolan Patrick, the projected top pick up to that point. Right now, Stenberg has the momentum, and Sweden is expected to be a medal contender. With Canada trying to rebuild a crumbling junior program, it might just be enough to take the steam out of
3. Finland Takes Home the Gold
For the same reason why the Americans might go home empty-handed, the Finns will look to one-up their result from last year – goaltending. Petteri ‘Showtime’ Rimpinen will return to Finland’s crease after winning the 2025 IIHF Best Goaltender at the World Juniors with a .933 SV% and a 2.34 goals against average (GAA) while playing all seven games, and he has a good chance to claim it again. He remains one of the better goalies in the Liiga despite his age, and he’s gone undefeated in five international contests so far this season.
On defence, we haven’t seen the best of Aron Kiviharju yet. He’s shown that he can be a solid defensive presence, but that wasn’t what made him a potential top-16 pick in the 2024 NHL Draft. He had speed, intelligence, and skill, but an injury in his draft year set him back significantly to the point that he wasn’t even taken in the first half of the NHL Draft, falling to the Minnesota Wild in the fifth round. But he still has plenty of confidence, and in his last World Junior tournament, he’ll want to prove that he can still pull off highlight-reel plays.
The big question is how Finland will do without Konsta Helenius, who will remain with the Buffalo Sabres over the tournament, but Aatos Koivu has done well as a replacement. He led the World Junior Summer Showcase with six goals in five games and has been incredibly effective with the U20 team in other international tournaments so far this season. He’ll have the support of Julius Miettinen, Emil Hemming, Lasse Boelius, and Daniel Nieminen, just to name a few, and after coming so close last year, they will be out for blood in Minnesota.
4. Canada Finishes With a Bronze Medal
For the Canadians, anything less than gold is a disappointment, meaning that the last two World Juniors were catastrophic failures. It led to sweeping changes throughout Hockey Canada, including a greater focus on preparation. The 30-plus player selection camp was removed in favour of a smaller, more dedicated training camp. “It’s not like 40 kids coming in,” said head coach Dale Hunter. “It’s right down to our team. We go right into our first practice, doing five-on-five [work], neutral zone, PP, PK. We can be more prepared to start.”
That’s created a much better team, at least on paper. Aside from a few qualms, Canada arguably brought the best roster it could ice from the available players, and there’s no question that when Canada is at its best, it is always a medal contender.
The only problem is that the past two years set the program back years, and now the new full-time general manager will need to build it back up to a competitive force. Only six players returned from last year’s team, two of whom are goalies. The World Juniors will always be a 19-year-old tournament, but you need to bring younger players to prepare them for the future. Canada didn’t prioritize that in recent years, leading to a team that can’t build towards anything. This year will be a year to recalibrate, and a bronze would be a respectable showing for a program in the middle of big changes.
5. Cole Hutson Leads the Tournament in Scoring…Again
Picking the leading scorer from the 2025 World Juniors might feel like a cop-out, but in the history of the tournament, only one player has repeated as the leading scorer. In 1979 and 1980, Vladimir Krtuov led the World Juniors with 14 and 11 points, respectively, propelling the Soviet Union to its third and fourth consecutive gold medals. He had some competition in 1980 from Finland’s Jari Kurri, who tied his 11 points as the Finns took home silver, but Krtuov’s better goal total gave him the title.
It also might seem counterintuitive that the leading scorer comes from a team I don’t expect to medal, but that’s less rare than a repeat leader. In the last 20 years, five players have led the World Juniors in scoring while finishing fourth or lower. The most recent was Czechia’s Martin Necas, who tied USA’s Casey Mittelstadt for the lead with 11 points. The two faced each other in the bronze medal game, but the Americans came away with the win, leaving the Czechs with nothing.
There’s no denying Hutson’s ability to move the puck, and there’s little doubt that the dynamic defenceman can build on his 11 points from last year. He already has 20 points in 18 games with Boston University and leads his team by a six-point margin. The Americans could also prove to be a high-scoring team after a 8-0 victory over Germany in a pre-tournament matchup. If Hutson can get rolling early, he’s a good bet to make history for the Americans yet again.
