No player on the 2023-24 Winnipeg Jets had more of a rollercoaster season than Cole Perfetti, who at 22 years old, completed his first fully healthy NHL season. The fluctuating nature of his season will make for an interesting offseason negotiation between Perfetti, his agent, and Jets’ General Manager Kevin Cheveldayoff.
Cole Perfetti Posts Productive Season, Was Benched Down the Stretch
Perfetti posted 19 goals, 19 assists, for 38 points in 71 games played. Having played well in a top-six role for the majority of the season, this was a huge step forward for the 10th overall pick from the 2020 NHL Draft.
On the 2023-24 Jets, in per 60-minute stats (/60), he finished: Third in Primary assists/60 (0.89) Behind only Mark Scheifele and Nikolaj Ehlers. Sixth in Goals/60 (1.04), one spot behind Tyler Toffoli and one spot ahead of Scheifele. Fifth in individual high-danger chances/60 ahead of both Kyle Connor and Scheifele. He also posted a career-high eight-game point streak from Oct. 30th to Nov. 17th.
The highs were met with lows, as after a 23-game goal drought from Jan 11 to March 23, Perfetti was benched down the stretch, finishing the season on the fourth line and missing 11 games altogether as a healthy scratch. There was plenty of talk around the handling of Perfetti between fans, coaches, media, and management. Rick Bowness admitted that it was a tough situation, and related it to his years in Tampa Bay.
“He’s handling it well, it’s a tough situation for a young player,” Bowness said after morning skate, on a game day when Perfetti was a healthy scratch that night. “I told him our first year in Tampa there we sat (Nikita) Kucherov for a couple games, and look now”
Tyler Toffoli missed a game due to an illness, which allowed for Perfetti to step back into a second-line role, where he posted two goals (including the game-winner) and an assist in a 4-3 win over the Los Angeles Kings on April 1. The very next day, Bowness said he wanted to let that line of Perfetti, Kyle Connor, and Sean Monahan, roll a little bit.
“Well yeah, we’re not going to take him off that line now,” Bowness said about Perfetti on the second line. “He’s earned it, we told him when you get back in we’ll try to get you more time with the top six, and he took full advantage of it.”
It was only three games before Perfetti was benched again, before playing Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, where the Jets season came to an end. This stretch of producing while in the lineup, but being healthy scratched time and time again, is what will ultimately make this negotiation so challenging, especially given that there will be a new Head Coach in Winnipeg with Bowness retiring on Monday, May 6.
Many Jets fans have brought up an ongoing concern that Perfetti will request a trade, and simply put, I do not see that happening. Perfetti himself acknowledged his struggles during the season, knows he’s a young player who went through the ups and downs of his first full season, and the organization is aware that he is a massive part of this teams core going forward. Unless they are super far off on a dollar amount, which I also do not see happening, I see Perfetti signing with Winnipeg this offseason.
Predicting Perfetti’s Next Contract with the Jets: 2 Years, $3.5M AAV
Despite the nature of this contract negotiation, I believe we will see the two sides agree to a ‘bridge’ contract. A two-year “prove it” deal, where if Perfetti’s development path continues to ascend, he can cash in on a long-term contract in two years. If he is able to resume his top six role to begin next season, after yet another offseason of training and improving, his numbers could go up in a big way in 2024-25.
As shown by the Jfresh Hockey card in the tweet above, Perfetti is great at completing high-danger passes leading to primary assists, he generates offensive chances when set up in the offensive zone, and his defensive numbers are above average. There are things to work on, as there is for every young player, for him it lies mainly on improving his skating speed and generating more offence off the rush.
A great comparison for this type of contract situation is his teammate, Gabriel Vilardi. Vilardi was 23 years old when he signed, so one year older than Perfetti is currently, but he was also coming off of multiple injury-riddled seasons in the NHL, before having a breakout season in the contract year. Vilardi posted 23 goals, 18 assists, and 41 points in 63 games in 2022-23, before being traded to the Jets and signing a two-year, $3.437 million AAV extension.
Perfetti could be looking at a very similar deal given the statistical similarities, having posted 19 goals, 19 assists, and 38 points in 71 games in his first fully healthy NHL season. My prediction is very similar to Vilardi’s deal, with a slight bump in money. Two years, $3.5 million per season.
Perfetti’s Deal Is Part of a Long Offseason List for Kevin Cheveldayoff
Perfetti’s deal is just one of a long “to-do” list for Cheveldayoff this offseason, with a handful of unrestricted free agents (UFAs) and potential trades in the works. Nikolaj Ehlers headlines that list, with one year remaining on his contract while being extension eligible starting July 1.
Related: Jets Facing a Critical Offseason Decision with Nikolaj Ehlers
There are a handful of UFAs that could be returning to the Jets next season. Those players are Sean Monahan, Dylan DeMelo, Brenden Dillon, Laurent Brossoit, and Tyler Toffoli. Decisions will have to be made on the contracts and roles that these players will play next season, and whether or not the Jets have the cap space ($13.35 million) to bring the majority of these players back.