The Tampa Bay Lightning are off to a good start. They are 2-0-0 after a 4-1 victory over the Vancouver Canucks in their home opener on Tuesday. The Lightning’s stars have shown up. Nikita Kucherov has four goals and five points through two contests, while Andrei Vasilevskiy looks fantastic in net. He ranks fifth in Evolving Hockey’s goals saved above expected metric, considering the quality of shots a netminder faces.
Related: Lightning Defeat Canucks in Hurricane-Postponed Home Opener
The Lightning’s depth also seems much stronger this season, and a few players have stood out. However, the most critical factor in the Lightning’s success so far has been the improvement at 5-on-5 play – one of the reasons they’ve been bounced in the first round twice. Here’s a look at two players who have bounced back with strong 5-on-5 play to open the 2024-25 campaign.
Nick Paul Steps into Top Six Role
The most pleasant surprise to open the season has been Nick Paul elevating his game to play in a top-six role. Rewinding to last season, Paul primarily played as the Lightning’s third-line center. However, he got a few games in the top six, where the fast pace didn’t fit his style. Paul has flipped that narrative so far and has been the perfect complement on the second line alongside Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel on the wing.
Paul, Cirelli, and Hagel remain the Lightning’s most dominant possession line at 5-on-5. MoneyPuck ranks them first in 5-on-5 expected goals for percentage (xGF%) amongst lines with more than 15 minutes played together this season. They have controlled 91.7% of the on-ice expected goal share, which is due for regression in a small sample size but impressive nonetheless. They have generated 26 shot attempts at 5-on-5 versus only nine shot attempts against, and their on-ice Corsi for percentage (CF%) ranks second among active lines in the NHL. With that, it’s fair to say Paul makes this one of the most dominant possession lines in the league at even strength.
Victor Hedman’s Stellar Possession Numbers
It wasn’t difficult for the front office to choose the Lighnting’s next captain heading into the season. Victor Hedman has been the backbone of the team’s blue line since he was drafted in 2009, almost 16 years ago. While he had one of his most productive offensive seasons in 2023-24, he received much criticism for his 5-on-5 and defensive play. While the points and microstats were there, the possession numbers were not. Hedman’s shots for percentage (SF%) and expected goals for percentage (xGF%) were below 50%, which doesn’t point to an elite NHL defenseman. Part of the problem was team health, with players like Mikhail Sergachev missing a lot of time.
Despite the small sample size, things have been much better for Hedman at 5-on-5 to start this season. Surrounding him with stable rush defenders like Darren Raddysh and J.J. Moser have also helped his defensive game. Hedman has controlled 64.38% of the on-ice shots for share (SF%) and 68.21% of the expected goals for share (xGF%) so far. We hope to see this trend continue for the Lightning’s top defender.
Lightning’s Small Sample Size Can Be Misleading
While the Lightning have looked like an improved product in their first two games, they have 80 contests to go in the regular season, and I don’t expect Paul and Hedman to remain this dominant for the entire campaign. Nevertheless, they look complete as a team with improved 5-on-5 play, an aspect they lacked last season.
