Early in their 2024-25 season, the Philadelphia Flyers are pondering how they can bounce back from a disappointing 1-3-1 record and four-game losing streak. Many individuals have contributed to this poor stretch, but one is particularly intriguing.
Owen Tippett, a 25-year-old winger, loves to shoot the puck but has yet to find any luck in the scoring department. Let’s analyze his tendencies and why they may be concerning for the future. What can the Flyers do about it?
Tippett’s Shot-Happy Mentality
As of the writing of this article, we’re witnessing one of Tippett’s notorious droughts. Despite having 46 shot attempts, only 17 of them have gone on the net and zero of them have gone in. Let’s quantify that a bit further.
On a per-60 basis among players with at least 50 minutes of ice time, Tippett is second in shot attempts. The top 10 of that list includes players such as Filip Forsberg, Auston Matthews, Nikita Kucherov, and Steven Stamkos, each of whom hit the 40-goal mark in 2023-24. Not only is Tippett generating the fewest expected goals per shot attempt out of those players (0.037), but he’s also the only one who is still looking for his season-opening marker.
If we include last season in the sample, he is third in shot attempts per 60 among players with 500 minutes of ice time. If there’s one positive takeaway here, you can definitely say he’s not lacking any confidence whatsoever—Tippett has never seen a puck he is unwilling to shoot.
The problem with this approach is that, no matter the situation, Tippett is going to fire the puck when he gets it. He has already looked off Matvei Michkov on a 2-on-1 which neutralized a golden opportunity, and he has killed many offensive possessions via long-range shots that had a small chance to score anyway. This risky decision-making has always been Tippett’s game—that much will seemingly never change.
Should the Flyers Decrease Tippett’s Ice Time?
At some point, Tippett will start scoring again. Just like last season, he’ll almost certainly have a red-hot stretch where he is the most effective player on the team goals-wise and we’ll wonder why we ever questioned his excellence in the first place.
It’s frustrating when the shots aren’t going in for Tippett, and it’s great when they are. This kind of zero-to-hero style distracts from these droughts that happen to him. He’s not an efficient shooter, needing an average of 18.9 shot attempts to score a goal throughout his career. To put that in perspective, that’s 4.7 more shots than Travis Konecny, who is a good but not exactly Matthews-level sniper (who requires 8.1 fewer shots to put a puck in the net than Tippett does).
At this point, this is probably just who Tippett is. He is incredibly talented with blistering speed but has to shoot the puck far more often than other snipers to make a difference on the score sheet. His inefficiency was somewhat justified in the past considering the lack of talent on the roster, but Michkov is here now—shooting the puck just for the sake of it is no longer acceptable. If he can’t smarten up, his usage should be capped.
Related: Flyers’ Matvei Michkov Could Soar in 2024-25 Based on Historical Trends
A third-line role might be the best for Tippett moving forward. His shot-happy style wouldn’t be a nuisance to a player like Michkov anymore—he’d be the primary contributor of his line and have a reason to fire away. Limiting puck touches of the opposition is one of the most important things a top-six forward can do, as stars are much more dangerous with the puck than the standard player. Of course, Tippett doesn’t really limit these touches because of how much he (unsuccessfully) shoots. We’d have to see it play out in a game, but there might need to be some experimentation here to figure out what works best to maximize his potential.
Are the Flyers Already Regretting Tippett’s Extension?
On Jan. 26, 2024, Tippett was extended to an eight-year deal with a cap hit of $6.2 million. Presumably, this was done with the idea of providing the Orange and Black with as much talent as possible as they look to become a contender someday. But are they already regretting handing out this kind of money?
It’d be a bit premature to say this is a bad contract, but it’s worth discussing the long-term ramifications of this deal. Can Tippett be an asset to the Flyers when they’re actually a threat to compete for a championship (assuming they reach that level)? What were general manager Daniel Brière’s intentions when he signed up for this commitment?
This is just speculation, but Tippett’s deal appears to be a culture-setter more than anything. While the Flyers figure he can have more good seasons than bad ones until his contract expires following 2031-32, the payoff for any long-term signing is immediately after pen is put to paper. In theory, the team wants Tippett to help them win games now and allow their young core to experience what success is like.
The $6.2 million number only makes sense if Tippett can take his game to another level, though. He has never scored 30 goals or 55 points in a single season and was the only forward with 500 shot attempts to not reach either of those marks in 2023-24 (when most of them were scoring 80-plus points). If he can’t put up star-caliber numbers, he doesn’t deserve a star-caliber paycheck. Sounds fair, right?
So, the final verdict here is inconclusive. However, if Tippett keeps shooting at the rate he does and continues to have underwhelming offensive statistics, it may be a problem. While relatively young, time is ticking for him to be more than a streaky player who is either a liability or on fire with no place in between. Ideally, he can provide more at the NHL level.
There are few players out there who can be as frustrating yet electrifying as Tippett. Can he limit those dreary stretches in the future, or is this just something the Flyers will have to endure for the next eight years?
Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick
