The trend this offseason was for teams to reach agreements with players early and sign them to extensions before they hit free agency. It’s a move that benefits the front offices and a response to the Jake Guentzel and Steven Stamkos sagas, where both star players weren’t signed and left in free agency in the 2024 offseason.
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It’s why Leon Draisaitl, Sidney Crosby, and Jaccob Slavin all signed extensions this offseason and won’t be heading to free agency. Teams, especially the general managers (GMs), want to keep their players under contract, and they rarely if ever want to play the waiting game.
There are, however, a few teams that are playing the waiting game. They are betting on a few things. One is that they can still re-sign the players in the offseason. Two, that the player has a career-best season to head into free agency on the right foot. And lastly, it makes the team better and ultimately, a Stanley Cup champion. Some of the GMs who are waiting out the expiring deals are watching their teams have remarkable seasons at the moment and look like Cup contenders.
Dallas Stars
The Dallas Stars extended goaltender Jake Oettinger this offseason but have a handful of top skaters left unsigned. Wyatt Johnston is a restricted free agent (RFA) after the season but Matt Duchene, Evgenii Dadonov, and Jamie Benn are all unrestricted free agents (UFAs) likely heading to free agency as veteran forwards.
All four skaters are putting together great seasons and are part of the reason the Stars are one of the best teams in the NHL. Duchene is particularly off to a remarkable start with six goals and 11 assists and it’s making him one of the top skaters heading into 2025 free agency. Dadonov, Benn, and Johnston have combined for nine goals and 13 assists to help the offense average 3.38 goals per game.
The Stars reached the Western Conference Final in each of the past two seasons and are on track for another deep playoff run. GM Jim Nill built a super team with both elite veteran and young players as well as three deep units but having a handful of skaters putting together great seasons with the hopes of fielding a big contract this summer has taken this team to another level.
Florida Panthers
The Florida Panthers played the waiting game last season and it paid off big time. Sam Reinhart, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and Brandon Montour all put together the best seasons of their careers, with Reinhart notably surpassing the 50-goal mark, and it helped the team win the Stanley Cup title.
GM Bill Zito is rolling with the same strategy, albeit, to a lesser degree, this season. Sam Bennett is in a contract year and is one of the top forwards on the team with nine goals and eight assists. Likewise, Aaron Ekblad is an anchor of the defense and will head to free agency after this season. The two skaters are helping the forward unit and the defense look like one of the best in the NHL and have the Panthers once again in first place in the Atlantic Division.
The Panthers have become one of the juggernauts in the NHL with Zito building a team that reached the Stanley Cup Final in back-to-back seasons and is on track to represent the Eastern Conference once again. It’s made the team in a non-traditional hockey market one of the hot destinations and given him the luxury of allowing elite players to play out the final seasons of their contracts, knowing he has a good chance of re-signing them.
New York Rangers
The team playing the most notable waiting game. Igor Shesterkin is heading to free agency after declining a massive offer from the New York Rangers. He’s one of the few elite goaltenders in the NHL and he will break the bank. But before he does, he will have a remarkable season. Shesterkin has a .914 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.78 goals-against average (GAA) on 370 shots putting him in the Vezina Trophy discussion and if he takes it up a notch, he can finish the season in the Hart Trophy discussion.
His lights-out play has the Rangers near the top of the Eastern Conference and in Cup contention. The Rangers ideally wanted to sign their star goaltender before the season but allowing him to bet on himself has helped the team have a great season in the process. Nobody will complain about the price to pay for Shesterkin for the next eight seasons if he wins them a Cup this season.
For what it’s worth, Reilly Smith and Ryan Lindgren are also heading to free agency after this season and playing big roles on the Rangers right now. Considering the contract Shesterkin will receive this offseason, both players are all but gone after the season. However, their auditions for the rest of the league will help the Rangers compete this season.
Winnipeg Jets
The Winnipeg Jets are the team benefiting most from this. They have a lot of skaters stepping up and putting together remarkable seasons and it’s why the team has the best record in the NHL. The entire offseason rumors circulated about Nikolaj Ehlers being traded but instead, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff kept him on the roster knowing he might lose the winger in the offseason. The result is nine goals and 11 assists from Ehlers to help make the Jets’ offense one of the league’s best.
It’s not just Ehlers. Pending UFA Neal Pionk has emerged as one of their best two-way defensemen with 2.4 defensive point shares along with three goals and 14 assists to take this team to the next level. Alex Iaffalo, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Mason Appleton are all heading to free agency and have combined for 11 goals and 17 assists while pending RFA Gabriel Vilardi has seven goals and seven assists. To round out the group of players betting on themselves, pending RFA Dylan Samberg has emerged as a key part of the defense which is allowing only 2.39 goals per game.
The Jets are the best team in the NHL partially because of the depth, great defensive unit, and world-class goaltender Connor Hellebuyck. At the same time, a lot of the skaters on this roster are overachieving and the players playing on expiring deals are the notable ones doing so.
Teams Losing the Waiting Game
The New York Islanders have four of their best skaters playing on expiring deals. Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri are UFAs while defensemen Noah Dobson and Alexander Romanov are RFAs after the season. The team is struggling and the inability to lock up any of the four to long-term contracts is a looming issue as they struggle to remain in the playoff race.
The Colorado Avalanche and the Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t sign their stars this season and there’s a possibility that Mikko Rantanen and Mitch Marner will head to free agency. Both skaters are having great seasons and have kept their teams competitive but they aren’t taking their teams to the next level and their expiring deals are looming issues.
The Edmonton Oilers signed Draisaitl in the summer but left Evan Bouchard unsigned. They are in the middle of the Pacific Division but should be one of the Cup contenders. With Bouchard poised to be paid like one of the top defensemen in the league, it will be interesting to see how the Oilers approach his contract since it’s possible three skaters can take up a majority of their salary cap.
GMs always have to find the ideal balance between getting a deal done early and letting their players play out their contracts with the hopes that they lead their teams to the Cup in the process. On The Hockey Writers Ice Time podcast, this was one of the discussions of a recent episode which can be found here.
