When the Tampa Bay Lightning decided to part ways with captain Steven Stamkos this summer, general manager Julien BriseBois was thinking ahead for the future of the organization. He signed superstar forward Jake Guentzel to a seven-year, $63 million deal to fill the void for Stamkos.
After all, Guentzel was the younger option and one of the NHL’s perennial five-on-five offensive players over the past half-decade. Guentzel proved he didn’t need Sidney Crosby as a linemate to find success in this league when he joined the Carolina Hurricanes at the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline. Despite his success in Raleigh, the Hurricanes couldn’t afford to keep Guentzel’s services, allowing BriseBois to swoop in and lock him up long-term.
Expectations were sky-high for the Lightning’s projected top line heading into the 2024-25 season. Adding Guentzel to a dynamic duo in Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point was a dream come true. While all three players have had good starts to the season a quarter of the way in, there remains some underlying concern for the Lightning’s top line.
The Positives of the Lightning’s Superstar Trio
Before jumping into the negatives, let’s look at some positives the top line has provided for Tampa Bay in the first 19 games. First off, all three players are a point per game or better. Kucherov ranks ninth in league scoring with 29 points, Point has 16 points in 15 games after missing a few due to an injury, and Guentzel has 18 points in his first season with the Lightning.
Related: Lightning’s Brayden Point Picked Up Where He Left off in Return From Injury
Furthermore, the Lightning’s top line has outscored their opponents at five-on-five when on the ice together. In 163.4 minutes, they’ve outscored their opponents 12-4, good enough for a goals-for percentage (GF%) of 75% (via MoneyPuck). Their 4.41 goals per 60 (GF/60) rank 10th amongst forward lines with over 100 minutes played together at five-on-five this season.
Regarding their shot attempt rates, the Lightning top line has done well. The trio has a shot attempts percentage (CF%) of 51.7% and an unblocked shot attempts percentage (FF%) of 51.2%. While these two rates are above the 50% threshold, a line of players with this caliber of skill should be skating circles around their opponents. These numbers lead to a vital concern for this trio moving forward, that being the struggle to control the quality of shots for and against on the ice.
The Concerns for the Lightning’s New Top Line
While the goals and points are there, expected goals are usually a good indicator of whether scoring rates are sustainable long-term. Superstars like Kucherov and Point have shredded expected goal models for years due to flaws in pre-shot goalie movement, but they typically are more dominant when controlling the pace of play at five-on-five.
Out of 47 forward lines with over 100 minutes together at five-on-five this season, the Lightning’s top trio ranks 39th in expected goals for percentage (xGF%) at 50% on the dot. In other words, the top line generates as many quality scoring chances as they surrender. The elite and established top lines in the NHL control the quality of scoring chances at a much better rate than the Lightning’s top line has this season. Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner’s line and Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart’s line are above 55% in expected goals share (xGF%) this season.
The issue lies in the defensive zone for Tampa Bay’s newly constructed line. Out of those 47 line combinations, the Lightning’s first line ranks 42nd in expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60), allowing 2.9 on a per-hour rate. This lack of defense won’t win against the league’s other top-line offensive abilities and talent.
Should Jon Cooper Shake Things Up?
Yes, the Lightning’s top line has outscored their opponents significantly this season, but is this play sustainable after viewing some of the underlying metrics? The defensive zone is concerning, especially considering the caliber of competition the trio faces night in and night out.
Following Point’s injury, Kucherov dominated play at five-on-five with two of the most possession-dominant forwards in the league (Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli). While this line looked fantastic in their short stint together, the Kucherov and Point connection is inseparable. Could we see a scenario where Guentzel becomes a fit for the second line with Hagel and Cirelli? That leaves the Lightning in search of another winger, and maybe a player of Anthony Duclair’s caliber is the answer at the trade deadline like last season.
If the top line doesn’t have things figured out around the trade deadline, it may be in the Lightning’s best interest to separate their superstar forwards to balance the offensive talent. Until then, fans must be patient with the trio and give them time to adjust.
