In a regular-season rematch of the 2022 Stanley Cup Final, the Colorado Avalanche suffered an embarrassing 8-2 loss against the Tampa Bay Lightning to start week eight of the NHL calendar. The blowout loss marked the 12th time Colorado has allowed four or more goals in a game this season and the ninth time they have allowed five or more, both of which are the highest or second-highest marks in the league.
A 2-1 shootout win against the Vegas Golden Knights on Nov. 27 improved the team’s record to 13-10-0 after 23 games, placing them eighth in the Western Conference by points percentage (PTS%). An inspiring win against a conference rival helps to stem the tide of discontent, but the general trends remain.
The Avalanche’s disastrous goaltending situation has been the biggest story of the season so far. Alexandar Georgiev (14 games played), Justus Annunen (11), Trent Miner (one), and the since-waived Kaapo Kahkonen (one) have appeared in the Avalanche crease. The quartet collectively boasts a .858 save percentage (SV%) and has allowed over 13 goals above expected (GSAx), according to Evolving Hockey, both of which are the worst team-based marks in the league.
Related: 3 Avalanche Goalie Trade Targets to Replace Georgiev
Georgiev has improved since the start of November with a .910 SV%, a plus-3.4 GSAx, and six wins in seven games, but the inconsistency plaguing the Avalanche’s goalie tandem could threaten another season of the core’s prime.
While other goalies could be found, none may be as affordable or as talented as Mackenzie Blackwood of the San Jose Sharks, who was recently name-dropped by Elliotte Friedman as a potential trade target. Blackwood’s age (he turns 28 in December) fits neatly with the team’s core, and he could serve as the bridge between the present and a future where Ilya Nabokov – the Avalanche’s top goalie prospect – takes over the reins. With that context in mind, here’s a look at the merits and the pitfalls of a potential Blackwood deal from the Avalanche’s point of view.
Why the Avalanche Should Trade for Blackwood
Blackwood is a pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) who carries a manageable $2.35 million cap hit through the end of this season. Georgiev’s pending UFA status ($3.4 million cap hit) could make a straight swap more feasible, especially since the Sharks’ other veteran goaltender (28-year-old Vitek Vanecek) is also set to hit the open market this summer. Annunen is a restricted free agent (RFA) after the 2025-26 season.
A trade involving some combination of those names would allow both organizations to reset their goaltending depth charts and progress in their competitive timelines. A match made in heaven, some would say.
The other factor which makes a trade palatable for both sides is the emergence of 22-year-old netminder Yaroslav Askarov, arguably the best under-25 goaltender in the world, according to leading scouts (from ‘Top 20 drafted NHL goalie prospects ranking: Wallstedt, Askarov lead Wheeler’s summer 2024 list’ – Scott Wheeler – The Athletic – 07/17/2024).
Acquired from the Nashville Predators during the 2024 offseason, Askarov has cemented himself as the Sharks’ goalie of the future. He boasts a .920 SV% over five career NHL appearances and a .914 SV% across his 101-game tenure in the American Hockey League (AHL), with the latter mark ranking 19th among qualified AHL goalies (minimum 20 games played since the start of the 2022-23 season) over that time.
The Avalanche were even rumored to be peripheral contenders in the Askarov sweepstakes but failed to secure his services. Other depth charts around the league looked less crowded than Colorado’s did before the start of the season, which likely made them less attractive of a destination. If one or both of Blackwood and Vanacek were to be traded, that would clear the path to full-time NHL duty for the young Russian netminder who was recently sent back down to the AHL.
You May Also Like:
- Sharks Double Up on Kraken With 4-2 Win
- Maple Leafs Overcome Late Comeback By Lightning to Win 5-3
- Wild’s Spurgeon Hero Again in OT Win Over the Predators
- Capitals Take Down Devils 6-5 in Thriller
- Panthers Shut Out Hurricanes 6-0 in Second Half of Back-to-Back
Now, back to Blackwood. Despite owning a mediocre career NHL SV% of .904 and a .900 SV% over his brief time with the Sharks (43rd among goalies with 10 games played since last season), the Canadian’s performance looks more favorable given the numbers under the hood.
Blackwood ranks 24th by GSAx (plus-11.9) since the start of last season despite facing one of the heaviest workloads in the league by both quantity (third in shots faced per 60 minutes) and quality (first in expected goals against per 60). He has made 30 or more saves in a game on 26 occasions since joining the Sharks, sixth among all goalies since the start of the 2023-24 season. He jumps to second for games with 35 or more saves (15), the most memorable of which might have been the 2023-24 season opener, in which he saved 51 of 52 shots in a 1-0 overtime loss to the Avalanche.
Blackwood has proven he can handle starting duties in an unfriendly environment, so moving to a more stable situation should be a seamless transition.
Why the Avalanche Should Not Trade for Blackwood
The obvious rebuttal against the trade is that Sharks could (rightfully) look to wield their leverage over the desperate Avalanche and squeeze them for higher-quality assets. They are in the midst of a rebuild, and a good goalie on an expiring contract could be dangled to several teams in distress, including the Edmonton Oilers and the Carolina Hurricanes, two teams currently in the middle of their own goaltending crises. The Avalanche have some valuable assets but would prefer to not get roped into a bidding war for a player who could leave in the summer.
Another factor is that despite holding steady with the rebuilding Sharks, Blackwood owns a career GSAx of minus-15.4. That mark ranks 152nd out of 186 goalies to have played in at least one game since he made his NHL debut during the 2018-19 season and, when paired with his stellar numbers this season, depicts a wildly inconsistent career arc.
| Season | Blackwood | NHL Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | -0.6 | 38th |
| 2019-20 | -0.4 | 33rd |
| 2020-21 | -11.7 | 90th |
| 2021-22 | -15.1 | 114th |
| 2022-23 | 0.5 | 57th |
| 2023-24 | 10.1 | 26th |
| 2024-25 | 1.8 | 28th |
What was true of Georgiev’s career at the time of his trade to the Avalanche is true of Blackwood’s: there’s no certainty that the better version will emerge in Colorado. Blackwood may be better suited to playing in a high-volume environment and could struggle in one where he isn’t called upon very often (the Avalanche rank third in shots against per game).
If the team does acquire Blackwood and he plays well, the front office will be confronted with the decision to commit to a goalie whose future performance is uncertain. While that could be said of all but a handful of the league’s netminders, it’s a reality that will have to be navigated in a salary-cap world, even if an extended playoff run would quell most of the fanbase’s concerns.
Time is Ticking for the Avalanche
Regardless of what the Avalanche decide is the best course of action, they must act quickly. They have already played a quarter of the season, and their playoff odds have nosedived since the start of the campaign due to their terrible goals-against numbers, which are second-worst in the NHL.
At the risk of being labeled an alarmist, it should be noted that Cale Makar – the youngest of the Avalanche’s core – is already 26. The team has thankfully already won a Stanley Cup (2022), but boasting three of the league’s most electric skaters and only having a single playoff run longer than two rounds since 2019 leaves a pall of underwhelming disappointment around the organization.
If the Avalanche pursue Blackwood, doing so before the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off (Feb. 12-20) should be the goal. Rosters are set to be announced on Dec. 4, and with Canada facing a similar dilemma in goal, Blackwood could be a dark-horse candidate to be named one of his country’s three netminders for the tournament. Just being named to the roster would enhance his value, and a strong performance in a high-pressure situation could send it skyrocketing ahead of the Mar. 7 trade deadline.
Whether or not the Avalanche enter negotiations for Blackwood, one thing is certain – the organization cannot continue with the status quo. Doing so risks wasting another year of their core’s prime years, and as history has shown time and time again, championship windows don’t stay open forever.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
