The last day of the round-robin is here, and one team will cement their spot in the championship game against Team USA. Canada will take on Finland, while USA goes up against Sweden. It is do-or-die for three teams, and it should be a thrilling day of hockey.
If the Canada/Finland game is settled in regulation, the winner of that team moves on. If it goes to overtime/shootout and Sweden gets a regulation win against USA, they move on. If Sweden loses, it is simply the winner of the other game who moves on. While the Americans don’t have a spot in the championship to fight for, they could be the only team to have a perfect 3-0-0-0 record in the tournament, and will certainly be giving it their all.
Team Canada vs. Team Finland
With their fate in their own hands, Team Canada and Team Finland are going to be playing a fierce battle. While it may not start as physically and electrifying as the USA/Canada game, there is no doubt that both teams will be playing at the same level of intensity.
For Team Canada, they need to push for more offensive chances. While they registered 26 shots against Connor Hellebuyck and Team USA, they didn’t generate many high-danger chances and didn’t have traffic in front of the net. When looking at their Finnish opponents, the defensive accountability and physicality in front of the net are exceptional. That is what these players take pride in. With great goaltending and a strong defensive structure, it will be hard to beat them.
One of the biggest concerns of Team Canada is the lack of effective physicality. That shouldn’t be too much of an issue against Finland, or at least not as much as it was against USA. They will also need their top players to truly shine. Getting fancy with the passes and making the pretty play doesn’t need to happen. They just need to score.
The good news is, Canada can certainly do that. If they have the right mindset and motivation, this team can score goals at will.
For Finland, they don’t have the ridiculous amount of star power that Canada has, but their top players in Mikko Rantanen, Sebastian Aho, Aleksander Barkov, and great secondary pieces in Mikhail Granlund, Artturi Lehkonen, and Patrik Laine can all be game-breakers. They will need them to play well.
Related: Guide to the 2025 4 Nations Face-Off
Defensively, it is hard to be much better than what Finland has, especially considering the injuries to Miro Heiskanen, Jani Hakanpaa, and Rasmus Ristolainen. They all play a shut-down role, can be physical, and move the puck. It is the same with the forwards. Even though they have a lot of offensive talent, they have multiple Selke-level defensive players.
Shutting down the Canadian offense won’t be easy, but it can be done. Playing the type of hockey they thrive on is going to be what leads them to victory.
Players to Watch: Jordan Binnington (Team Canada) and Mikko Rantanen (Team Finland)
Favorite: Team Canada
Team Sweden vs. Team USA
While Sweden can do everything in their power and earn a regulation win, they still won’t be guaranteed a spot in the championship game. The best they can do is go out and win, and hope for a favorable result out of the Canada/Finland game. Sweden has the potential to be nearly unstoppable and give Team USA their first loss of the tournament, but they need their stars to step up.
William Nylander and Erik Karlsson have been excellent for the Swedes, but if they want to win against the Americans, players like Elias Pettersson, Elias Lindholm, Mika Zibanejad, and Adrien Kempe need to have great games. Everything is on the line, and the players need to make the most out of this opportunity.
When it comes to the Swedish goaltending, Filip Gustavsson left the last game with an illness, and they haven’t announced the starting goaltender yet. If Gustavsson isn’t able to go, Linus Ullmark will get the nod. Both goalies are capable of stealing the game, but it will be a difficult task against Team USA.
Team USA has already booked their ticket to the championship game, so they may not have the urgency of the other three teams playing, but they also have a chance to have a perfect round-robin. Matthew Tkachuk will not be playing as he battles an injury he suffered against Canada, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t ready to go.
If the USA/Canada game taught us anything, it is that this USA team can beat and fight their way through anything. Sweden isn’t a very physical team, but USA can still use it to their advantage if they utilize it at the right times. They have the better goaltender, their offense is working a lot better, and they are certainly the favorite in this game.
Players to Watch: Auston Matthews (Team USA) and Elias Pettersson (Team Sweden)
Favorite: Team USA
