It’s been expected since the trade deadline, and now confirmed that the Colorado Avalanche will face off against the Dallas Stars in the first round of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, with the Stars earning home-ice advantage after finishing second in the Central Division.
The Avalanche finished third in the division with a 49-29-4 (102 points). They also earned a points percentage (PTS%) of .620 or higher for the sixth consecutive season, the longest streak in franchise history. The Stars posted their second consecutive 50-win season (50-26-6) and earned the most regulation wins (41) since the 2015-16 season (42).
The 2025 series marks the third time that the Avalanche and Stars have faced off in the playoffs during the Cale Makar era (2019 and onward) and the seventh time since Colorado moved from Quebec in 1995, becoming the most frequent playoff opponents in Avalanche history. The Stars lead the all-time series 4-2 and won the last two matchups.
Despite starting the series on the road, the Avalanche will be well-rested to begin the first round. They played their final game of the regular season on April 13 against the Anaheim Ducks, while the Stars have played two games since, on April 14 and 16. The Avalanche also took the season series 2-1 while outscoring the Stars 13-11.
Here’s a look at the most significant Avalanche storylines heading into this highly anticipated first-round clash between division rivals.
Avalanche Gaining Momentum While Stars Falter
Colorado’s 2024-25 campaign is a tale of two starkly different halves. During the first 25 games, Alexandar Georgiev and Justus Annunen were the team’s primary goaltenders, and they began the season with four straight losses, allowing 25 goals over those games. That stretch lasted until Nov. 30, when they found themselves on the margins of the playoff picture with a 13-12-0 record, and general manager Chris MacFarland made the first of two trades to overhaul the team’s netminding tandem.
When Scott Wedgewood was acquired from the Nashville Predators for Annunen, the Avalanche ranked dead-last in team save percentage (SV%) with a mark of .856 in all situations. Georgiev was sent to the San Jose Sharks for a package centred around Mackenzie Blackwood a week later.
The trades sparked new life into Colorado’s season. Wedgewood excelled as the backup and finished the season with a .917 SV% over 19 games. Despite struggling recently (.894 SV% since the trade deadline), Blackwood finished his first season in Denver with a .913 SV% in 37 games.
After getting the worst goaltending in the league to start the season, Colorado went 36-17-4 over their final 57 games, tied for third in the NHL by PTS% over that span, and were sixth in SV% (.907) since Wedgewood’s first start on Dec. 1. The moves revitalized the squad, and are a massive reason why the Avalanche have a shot to upset the suddenly reeling Stars.
The end of the season has been a nightmare for the Stars. After going 11-2-2 in March, Dallas lost seven of eight games in April while being outscored 35-23. Dallas won only nine of their final 20 games and lost seven in a row heading into the playoffs.
The team also announced that star defenseman Miro Heiskanen remains unavailable to start the series as he continues to recover from midseason knee surgery. His absence has been the catalyst for much of the team’s recent malaise. Adding to the misery, forward Jason Robertson (first on the team in goals and second in points) left the Stars’ final game on Wednesday night midway through the second period with a lower-body injury and didn’t return. If he and Heiskanen miss any extended time in this series, the Stars may no longer be the favorite to advance.
Tyler Seguin was activated from long-term injured reserve ahead of the Stars’ regular-season finale against the Predators and recorded an assist, but the Stars are still struggling at the worst time of year.
Rantanen Returns to Colorado
Mikko Rantanen will face his former team in the opening round after being moved twice this season. He was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes for Martin Necas and Jack Drury in January, but a lull in contract extension talks pushed general manager Eric Tulsky to flip him to the Stars for a massive package deal headlined by Logan Stankoven. This will be a showdown between several former teammates who won the Stanley Cup together in 2022.
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Rantanen has struggled since the initial trade, scoring seven goals and 24 points in 32 games between the Stars and Hurricanes. Even his 18 points in 19 games in Dallas is a far cry from the 25 goals and 64 points he tallied in 49 games with the Avalanche this season. The Finnish winger received a warm reception in his return, but the stakes of the postseason might make his next visit a more hostile environment.
Rantanen’s early returns haven’t matched either the cost of acquisition or the price tag on his new contract. Where he has the chance to prove his worth is on the playoff stage. Only eight players have scored more goals, two have more assists, and three have more points since his postseason debut in the 2018 Playoffs. If he can make do without his former center, Nathan MacKinnon, feeding him the puck, the Stars will find every penny of his new deal worth the sizable expense.
MacKinnon and Makar Leading the Way
A team that can boast having the best player in any given series (except maybe the Edmonton Oilers) will have a massive edge over their opponent. With MacKinnon and defenseman Cale Makar, the Avalanche have just that.
MacKinnon is fresh off the first Hart Trophy win of his career and will finish second in this season’s Art Ross Trophy race with 116 points in 79 games, the third consecutive 110-point season of his career. Only two players (Connor McDavid and Sidney Crosby) have scored more points since his rookie season in 2013-14, with only McDavid and Leon Draisaitl eclipsing MacKinnon’s 1.30 points-per-game (P/G) average in the playoffs since 2014.
Not to be diminished is Makar, the 26-year-old defenseman who is poised to collect the second Norris Trophy of his career after he became only the third blueliner since 1992-93 to score 30 goals in a single season. He is one of only eight defenders in NHL history to tally 80 points or more in a campaign at least three times and one of six to eclipse 90 points at least twice.
Makar won the 2022 Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP after posting the sixth-highest P/G in a postseason run by a defenseman (minimum 10 games played) in NHL history. Expect head coach Jared Bednar to lean heavily on Makar in Round 1 after using him for an average 25:43 minutes per game this season, second behind only Zach Werenski and Quinn Hughes.
How far the Avalanche advance in the 2025 Playoffs depends on the health and output of both MacKinnon and Makar, with the pair able to dismantle even the most fine-tuned defensive structures in an instant.
Landeskog Could Be Avalanche’s X-Factor in Round 1
There might not be a better story than the impending return of Avalanche captain Gabriel Landeskog. After nearly three years and over 1000 days between games due to multiple knee injuries and surgeries, Landeskog returned to professional hockey with a two-game conditioning stint in the American Hockey League this month. The 32-year-old scored a goal and two points before being recalled by the Avalanche ahead of the playoffs, and could re-enter the lineup for Game 1.
During his last foray in the NHL, Landeskog scored a combined 41 goals and 81 points in 71 regular-season and playoff games during the 2021-22 campaign, when the Avalanche won the Stanley Cup. It’s unfair to expect that caliber of play from someone who last played in June 2022, but any production further down the lineup would help against a deeper Stars team.
The Swedish forward was one of the best two-way players at his peak and still has his defensive instincts and disciplined physicality to lean on in high-pressure situations. Even if Landeskog’s on-ice contributions are diminished, the adrenaline from his return could power the Avalanche to victory in Round 1. There is something to be said about the value of intangibles in a sport that is increasingly leaning towards analytics, and the Avalanche captain is about as impactful in that department as any active player in the NHL.
Avalanche in Good Position to Upset Stars
As much as you can call a team that only finished one win and four points ahead of its opponent the ‘favorite’, the Stars can’t really be considered that in this series. The injuries to Heiskanen and Robertson, combined with the Avalanche’s return to health, shift the odds, and Colorado has the opportunity to take down a familiar foe for the first time in the MacKinnon-Makar era. The series is poised to be a rock fight, and either combatant has the talent to go all the way. Who moves on to Round 2?
Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and the NHL.
