The Maple Leafs Might Be Making a Huge Mistake With Morgan Rielly

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been actively marketing Morgan Rielly. Shortly after being hired as the new general manager in early May, John Chayka immediately started reshaping the team to match his vision. One of his first moves was a trade-and-sign deal for defenceman Darren Raddysh, who was acquired from the Tampa Bay Lightning and immediately inked to an eight-year contract worth $8.5 million per season.

Raddysh was coming off a career season, scoring 22 goals and 70 points in 73 games for the Lightning. The idea is that he will supplant Rielly as Toronto’s main offensive defenceman. He would also slot into the No. 1 power-play unit. As a right-handed shot, Raddysh might be better suited on the power play with left-shot players like Auston Matthews and John Tavares than the left-handed Rielly, so that makes sense.

How the Maple Leafs Could Best Use Raddysh and Rielly

While it is possible Chayka could use Raddysh and Rielly on the top pair, having two offensive defencemen playing together can create challenges. The better plan is to match an offensive defenceman with a more defensive partner, giving each player more defined duties. In that case, Toronto would be paying a second-pairing defenceman $7.5 million. In that case, trading Rielly to open up cap space, on the surface, appears to be a good move.

But… The second you declare to the world you want to trade a player, the market value of that player drops, and in many cases drastically, especially when it looks like a salary dump, which places the Maple Leafs in a weak bargaining position. Add to that the fact that Rielly has a full no-movement clause and can accept or veto any potential trade. In this case, it has been reported that he has submitted a list of four teams he would be willing to move to, which puts Toronto in an even weaker position.

Considering Rielly’s Decline in Production

The knocks against Rielly are that he has never been great defensively, that, at 32, he is getting slower, and that his production is declining. We won’t argue that he is a strong defensive player. He has always been better with the puck than without it. But the other two arguments might be more about environment and use.

Both former GM Brad Treliving and head coach Craig Berube were aligned in wanting their defencemen to be bigger, stronger, and more physical. The 6-foot-1 Rielly is now listed at around 220 lbs. The one thing we have noticed in recent interviews is that his neck looks like that of a bodybuilder, and much of the added weight is muscle rather than fat.

Rielly has never been a super-fast straight-line skater. His strength in skating has been his fluid stride, vision, and his ability to maneuver. Added muscle and weight would definitely slow him down.

As for his decline in production, his point total dropped from 58 to 41 to 36 over the last three seasons. That is a 17-point drop followed by a 5-point drop. At the same time, his plus/minus has gone from plus-7 to minus-8 to minus-18. Those 22 points and 25 plus/minus points of decline happened under Treliving and Berube.

Auston Matthews’ Productivity Also Fell Under Berube

Do you know who else has had a massive drop in production over the last two seasons? Auston Matthews went from 107 points in 2023-24 to 69 in 2024-25, and then 53 last season. In that same time, Matthews’ plus/minus has dropped from plus-31 to minus-4. The Treliving/Berube game plan was defence, defence, and more defence.

Enter new head coach Jim Hiller. Interestingly enough, the knock on Hiller is that he is a defensive-first coach. The difference lies in how he wants his teams to defend: through possession. If they have the puck, the other team does not.

Rielly’s strength? Possession. He loves having the puck on his stick. On top of that, Hiller knows Rielly well, from his days as a Maple Leafs assistant coach. Both Hiller and Chayka are firm believers in analytics. Before the last two seasons, Rielly has always posted positive underlying numbers. We have tracked those numbers. His defensive stats were usually middle of the road, but his offensive stats far outweighed them.

Reshaping Rielly’s Physique Could Be a Good Start to a Turnaround

If we were Chayka and Hiller, we would be encouraging Rielly to focus his offseason training on becoming leaner and quicker. Work less on weight training and more on skating and stamina. The vision and puck skills will still be there. Rielly’s game suits Chayka’s and Hiller’s vision.

Even if Rielly drops to the second pair and only gets time on the second power-play unit, he will still control the puck from the backend when he is on the ice. He will still get offensive opportunities. Hiller would also have the option of putting a left- and right-handed offensive defensive pair on the ice if the situation calls for it.

If the Maple Leafs Compete for a Playoff Spot, Rielly Would Be Valuable

If Toronto were to have a bounce-back season and compete for a playoff spot, Rielly could still be a valuable piece. If, as most oddsmakers and insiders are predicting, the Maple Leafs don’t make it back into the postseason in 2027, Rielly’s value on the trade market skyrockets.

Right now, a Rielly trade would be a salary dump, and the return would be garbage. If, as we suspect, he has a bounce-back season, we don’t think a middle-to-late first-round pick would be out of the question as a return.

[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]