On Thursday night, Alex DeBrincat became the first Detroit Red Wings player to score 40 goals in a single season since Marian Hossa did it back in the 2008-09 season. Ever since the Red Wings landed him in a trade with the Ottawa Senators, DeBrincat has been one of the most important players for Detroit.
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DeBrincat has only played three full seasons for Detroit, with one final season on his contract after this season ends, but he is already beginning to carve out a spot in Red Wings history as one of their best modern goal scorers.
First 40-Goal Season in 17 Years
DeBrincat’s 40-goal season puts him on an elite list of only 16 Red Wings who have scored at least that many goals in a season. Players from across eras of Detroit’s history decorate the list, with franchise greats like Henrik Zetterberg and Steve Yzerman and NHL legends like Gordie Howe and Marcel Dionne filling out the list.
In three seasons with the Red Wings, DeBrincat already holds two of the top-40 all time goal scoring seasons in franchise history, with his 41 goals this year tied for the 26th most goals in a season and his 39 goals last season ranks 33rd.
Already One of the Best Goal Scorers in Franchise History
So far in three seasons with Detroit, DeBrincat hasn’t missed a single game and has scored 107 goals (45th franchise history) and 221 points (57th). Those numbers might not sound extremely high, but keep in mind that 974 players have suited up for the Red Wings so he’s already torn through most players in the history of the franchise to be a top-50 scorer in just about three seasons.
DeBrincat’s goals per game rate to this point is the 9th highest mark in Red Wings history (among players with at least 82 games played), above players like Dino Ciccarelli, Ted Lindsay, and Brett Hull. His points per game rate is also impressive, sitting at 14th all time (min. 82 games), above players like Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin, and Henrik Zetterberg.
How High Could He Climb?
As mentioned above, DeBrincat is under contract for one more season after this one, and will be 29 years old when his contract expires in the 2027 offseason. Detroit can’t afford to let him walk away in free agency, with his goalscoring ability standing out even among Detroit’s best offensive players. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Detroit get DeBrincat extended this summer so it’s not hanging over him throughout next year, and he is absolutely deserving of the kind of money that would make him Detroit’s highest paid player.
Let’s take a safe projection and a swing projection for where DeBrincat could end up as an all-time goal scorer in Detroit. DeBrincat is a safe bet to score at least another 30 goals next season, which would put him at 137 goals in Detroit. That’s enough for 29th in franchise history after just four seasons. If DeBrincat decides to move on from HockeyTown (which honestly doesn’t seem super likely), then that feels like a bit of a floor for his all time rankings in Detroit.
On the generous side, let’s assume DeBrincat extends in Detroit for another six years or so after next season. He should pace for nearly 40 goals again over the next two to three seasons, slowly tapering off his numbers as he ages. Luckily for him, his goalscoring isn’t explicitly based on his athleticism and he should be able to fill nets at the NHL level for a long time.
Let’s assume he does score at a 40-goal pace for another two years and then closer to the 30 goal pace that he has been at in his “down years” for the remainder of this hypothetical six year contract. That would put him near 360 goals in Detroit.
360 goals would put DeBrincat fifth in franchise history, behind only Gordie Howe, Steve Yzerman, Alex Delvecchio, and Sergei Fedorov. Obviously, this whole exercise is highly speculative and based on a lot of projection that could change entirely.
In the end, if DeBrincat only has one more season in Detroit, he will go down as one of the best goal scorers in franchise history, albeit in a relatively small sample size. However, if he decides to extend long term and his goalscoring ages as well as I expect, then DeBrincat could go down as one of the Red Wings’ all time greats, especially as a scorer.
